Betting on the MLB Lines for Padres vs Dodgers, Analysis and Score Prediction

Betting on the MLB Lines for Padres vs Dodgers, Analysis and Score Prediction

One of the most heated rivalries in MLB is renewed on Friday night as the Los Angeles Dodgers visit the San Diego Padres for the first time this season with LA as a solid favorite on the MLB odds behind NL Cy Young contender Tyler Glasnow.

The 2024 MLB season didn’t open in the USA but in Seoul, South Korea on March 20 and the Dodgers beat the Padres 5-2, rallying with four runs in the top of the eighth. Shohei Ohtani’s RBI single capped a four-run eighth-inning rally in his Dodgers debut. It was MLB’s first-ever game in South Korea. The next day, the Padres won a 15-11 slugfest to split as they roughed up LA starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto in his MLB debut. The clubs then played three games in LA from April 12-14 and the Dodgers won two, so they lead 3-2.

MLB Moneyline Dodgers -170, Padres +150
Expert Prediction Dodgers 4, Padres 3
 

Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Pick -182

The Dodgers are starting to show why they are clear favorites to win the World Series as they enter on a season-high seven-game winning streak and six of those victories by multiple runs. They finished a sweep of the Marlins on Wednesday with a 3-1 win. Teoscar Hernandez went 2-for-3 with a two-run home run and an additional RBI in the victory. He plated Freddie Freeman on a first-inning single before re-taking the lead in the sixth on a two-run homer that also scored Freeman. Hernandez has gone yard four times in May, batting 8-for-25 (.320) with six runs scored during the month.

Daniel Hudson earned the save, striking out one over a perfect inning. Hudson got the first chance at ninth-inning duties after Evan Phillips (hamstring) was placed on the 15-day IL on Sunday and was perfect for his second save of the campaign. It doesn’t necessarily mean Hudson will close all games with Phillips out as both Blake Treinen and Alex Vesia might’ve been unavailable for LA on Wednesday after pitching during Monday’s series opener.

During the winning streak, the Dodgers’ offense has been very good but the real key to their success has been their pitching staff, particularly the starters. Since April 21, the Dodgers’ starting staff has posted a 2.19 ERA, the third lowest in the Majors during that span behind only the Cubs and Mariners (2.08). That has helped the Dodgers outscore their opponents, 100-31, during their current 14-2 run.

“They gameplan, they attack, they don’t hurt themselves,” Marlins manager Skip Schumaker said of the Dodgers’ pitching staff. “How many walks did we have all series, right? Not many. … They’re not afraid to go after our guys and let their defense work. So overall, just a really good performance by them for three games.”

The Dodgers have held opponents to four runs or less for 16 consecutive games. That’s one short of the all-time Dodger franchise record of 17, set from August 23-September 9, 1977.

Offensively, the Dodgers’ team on-base percentage of .356 leads the majors and would be the highest in team history since the Brooklyn Dodgers finished 1957 at .356. The Los Angeles record is .348, set in 2006.

It’s ace righty and Cy Young contender Tyler Glasnow on the mound Friday. Glasnow (6-1) earned the win over Atlanta last Saturday, allowing two runs on five hits and one walk over seven innings while striking out 10. He didn’t allow a man to reach base over the first three frames before surrendering a leadoff single to Ronald Acuna, who would later come home to score on a single from Austin Riley, in the fourth. Glasnow responded by striking out seven of the next 11 batters he faced, and overall he racked up double-digit strikeouts for the third time this season.

Glasnow has won each of his last three starts, going at least six innings in each of those outings while posting a 29:4 K:BB. He carries a terrific 2.70 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 63/13 K/BB ratio across 50 innings (eight starts) into Friday. Glasnow’s Dodgers debut was in the season opener March 20 in Seoul against the Padres and he allowed two runs and two hits over five innings of no-decision.

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San Diego Padres Betting Pick +130

The Padres impressively won two of three at the Cubs to start this week, taking the finale 3-0 on Wednesday as trade acquisition Dylan Cease struck out 12 and combined with two relievers on a one-hitter. Luis Arraez, acquired last week in a shock trade from Miami, singled twice and scored twice, helping San Diego win for the sixth time in eight games. Arraez has given the Padres the spark they envisioned at the top of the order. The two-time batting champion is 8 for 20 with five runs in five games for San Diego.

“You just know he’s gonna give a good at-bat,” manager Mike Shildt said. “He’s got bat-to-ball skills that are, quite honestly, unparalleled that I’ve seen. There’s not a place to go for this guy. Even if you’re trying to get a chase on him, he can barrel up the ball that’s out of the zone. It’s tremendous to have a guy at the top of the order that can set a tone, and clearly, he did it.”

The Padres were held without an extra-base hit on Opening Day in South Korea but since then, they have logged at least 1 extra-base hit in every game, a streak of 39 in a row. It’s the 2nd-longest active streak in baseball behind just the Royals (67-game XBH streak).

Robert Suarez earned the save Wednesday, striking out one across a perfect inning. Suarez advanced to 12-for-12 on save chances this season, tying him with Washington’s Kyle Finnegan for the most saves in baseball. He’s allowed just seven hits on the season and the lone run charged against him came via a home run back on March 28. Suarez hasn’t allowed a hit in 5.2 innings.

It’s offseason trade acquisition Michael King on the mound Friday for the Padres. King (3-3) earned the win over the Diamondbacks last Saturday, allowing six hits over six shutout innings while striking out three. King surrendered hits to three of the first four batters he faced in the contest but was able to work his way out of it before retiring the next 11 batters in succession. He didn’t allow a walk for the first time this year but his three strikeouts on the night also marked a season low.

This solid outing was needed for King, whose season has been marred by a 4.29 ERA and a high 1.40 WHIP. His ability to avoid walks and keep runs off the board vs. Arizona could be a sign of turning things around, especially considering his solid 9.2 K/9 rate. However, his 5.80 FIP suggests that some issues may still exist.

The former Yankee King had allowed at least four runs in back-to-back starts coming in and in three of his last four overall, taking three consecutive losses over that stretch. However, he’s now posted three quality starts on the season and has gone at least five innings in five of his last six outings. King has faced the Dodgers twice this season (one start, once in relief) and is 1-0 with a 7.56 ERA.

If the Padres win 1 of the 3 games against Los Angeles this series, they will have tied their total wins last season against them (went 4-9 vs. LAD in 2023). In 2022, San Diego went 5-14 vs. the Dodgers in 19 games. If the Padres win another series against the Dodgers, it’ll be their 1st time since 2021 in which they won multiple series against them in a season. They haven’t won 3 series against them in a single season since 2016.

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Dodgers at Padres Info

When: Friday, 9:40 PM ET
Where: Petco Park
Pitchers (away/home): Tyler Glasnow/Michael King
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: ESPN+; https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/

 
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2024 Dodgers vs Padres in Korea
 

The 2024 MLB regular season begins early Wednesday morning from Seoul, South Korea as the Los Angeles Dodgers meet the San Diego Padres. It’s the LA debut of two-time AL MVP Shohei Ohtani, although he will only hit and not pitch this season off elbow surgery in 2023. The Padres are the home team for the first game. They play again there Thursday morning.

MyBookie MLB Expert Analysis LA Dodgers vs San Diego | MLB Week 1

 

How to Bet Dodgers “at” Padres MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Wednesday, 6:05 AM ET
Where: Gocheok Sky Dome, Seoul
Probable pitchers (away/home): Tyler Glasnow/Yu Darvish
TV: ESPN
Stream/gameday audio: ESPN+
Opening MLB Lines: Dodgers -205, Padres +185 (total 8.5)

 

Why Bet on Los Angeles Dodgers?

The Seoul Series will be the 1st MLB regular-season games ever played in Korea, and it’ll be the 9th time that the season opened outside the 50 U.S. states and Canada.

All eyes will be on Shohei Ohtani in his Dodgers regular-season debut after signing a historic $700 million free agent contract this offseason. Despite taking plenty of big wings in the team’s two exhibition games against Korean opponents ahead of the opener, the reigning AL MVP 0-for-5 in his final tuneup at-bats before the regular season.

For now, Manager Dave Roberts said the team’s “only focus is him being a designated hitter.” Yet, if Ohtani progresses quickly enough through his throwing program and remains healthy, Roberts left open the possibility of Ohtani eventually being able to play defensively in the field, if the need ever arises. Ohtani has never regularly played a defensive position (other than pitcher) in his major league career. “We’ll see how that progression goes,” Roberts said. “If his arm is healthy enough, we’ll have that conversation.”

Max Muncy (illness) went 2-for-4 with a double and two RBI on Monday in the Dodgers’ 5-2 exhibition win over the South Korean national team. Muncy played nine innings at third base while slotting in as the No. 5 hitter in what appeared to be Roberts’ preferred lineup configuration versus right-handed pitching. Muncy had missed some workouts last week in Arizona while battling an illness and lost 10 pounds, but his ability to join the Dodgers for the trip and play nine innings Monday sets the stage for him to be included in the lineup Wednesday.

In mid-December, the Dodgers acquired right-handed pitcher Tyler Glasnow from the Tampa Bay Rays, and he gets the Opening Day start. Glasnow is the first Dodger since Derek Lowe in 2005 to start Opening Day after being acquired by the team in the previous offseason. He is the sixth different Dodger Opening Day starter in the last six seasons. It will mark his second career Opening Day start, after he started the opener for Tampa Bay in 2021.

“It means everything,” Glasnow said of getting the opening day nod. “Just to sign here, that all being a reality feels crazy. Then when they told me I was the opening day starter, I definitely felt a lot of pride and excitement.”

In eight years in the Majors split between the Pirates and Rays, Glasnow has a 3.89 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP and 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings across 127 games. In 2023, he ranked in the 97th percentile in strikeout rate (33.4%) and in the 95th percentile in whiff rate (35.2%).

The one issue with Glasnow is trying to stay healthy over a full campaign, having never logged more than 120 innings in a single season (he set the mark last year) thanks to a long list of injuries, including a Tommy John procedure in 2021, over his eight-year MLB career.

Bet Los Angeles to Win
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Why Bet on San Diego Padres?

The Padres were one of the big disappointments of the 2023 season and they cut payroll this offseason led by trading young star outfielder Juan Soto to the New York Yankees for a handful of players. The Padres initially acquired Soto by sending an impressive haul of prospects — headlined by shortstop CJ Abrams, starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore and three other highly regarded young players — to the Washington Nationals in August 2022.

Soto finished 2022 with a career-low .853 OPS, but his numbers picked back up in his first full season with the Padres in 2023, during which he slashed .275/.410/.519 with 35 home runs and 109 RBIs while playing in all 162 games.

Some interesting news this week as well as top Padres prospect Jackson Merrill has made the Opening Day roster as the team’s starting center fielder. Merrill, 21 next month, was the club’s first-round pick in the 2021 draft and is a consensus top-20 prospect in the sport. The youngster is something of a surprising choice for the role as he has not yet played a game above Double-A in his big league career, having slashed a solid but unspectacular .277/.326/.444 in 114 games split between the High-A and Double-A levels last year.

Perhaps even more importantly, Merrill had never appeared in center field in a professional game until camp opened last month. With Soto and Trent Grisham departing this offseason, a spot opened up in the outfield for Merrill. He will make history as the third Opening Day center fielder before turning 21 years old in MLB history, along with Ken Griffey Jr. and Andruw Jones.

Right-hander Yu Darvish takes the hill Wednesday, his third time getting the Opening Day honor in his four seasons with the club. The 37-year-old Darvish leads the Padres in starts (84) and innings (497⅓) since joining the club before the 2021 season. After making 30 starts in ’21 and ‘22, he made just 24 last season, a campaign that started late and ended early. One the worst statistical years of his career (4.56 ERA, 1.30 WHIP in 136⅓ innings) was cut short at the end of August by a stress reaction in his throwing elbow.

It’ll be Darvish’s 1st time pitching in Asia in a professional game since he pitched for the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters in Japan in his last season in Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) in 2011.

Two San Diego players are from South Korea in Ha-Seong Kim and Woo-Suk Go. Kim played for 7 seasons from 2014-20 with the Kiwoom Heroes and in the Korean Baseball Organization and Go played for 7 seasons as well from 2017-23 with the LG Twins.

Bet San Diego to Win
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Dodgers vs Padres Expert Prediction

Dodgers 4, Padres 3

 

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