The 2021 Emmy Award nominations are out. Right now, things are looking rosy for The Crown. The Netflix show about Queen Elizabeth II is a massive favorite to score the Emmy for Best Drama. If past Emmy’s have shown us anything, though, the chalk doesn’t always cross the finish line first. Check out an Emmy Awards odds analysis for this year’s Best Drama Emmy contenders.
Odds Analysis for the 2021 Best Drama Emmy Award
2021 Emmy Awards
- When: Sep. 19, 2021
- TV / Streaming: CBS / Paramount+
2021 Emmy Awards: Best Drama Category
- The Crown -1000
- The Handmaid’s Tale +600
- Bridgerton +1200
- Pose +1400
- The Boys +1400
- The Mandalorian +1500
- Lovecraft Country +2000
- This is Us +2000
Does The Crown’s odds make the Netflix show an overlay or underlay to win Best Drama?
Netflix’s show about Harry’s grandma secured the most Emmy noms, 24, and should be the front runner to win all 24. For some reason, Emmy voters love the good old days when Charles and Camilla had to meet in the shadows and Her Majesty got to bump heads with good old Margaret Thatcher.
But the odds to win the Best Drama Emmy doesn’t justify a bet. If Succession, HBO’s brilliant show that took the globe holding angel last year hadn’t postponed their 2020 season, the Brian Cox vehicle would be the hands down chalk.
Ozark, another Netflix show, also postponed their 2020 season. Like Succession, Ozark would have grabbed plenty of Emmy noms. So it feels like The Crown is the -1000 no can lose choice because neither Succession nor Ozark is in the game this year, which makes the favorite shaky.
Does The Handmaid’s Tale have any shot of winning the award?
The Handmaid’s Tale most definitely has a chance, but sort of like The Crown, it’s not a fun show. Does being fun matter? In 2021, it might.
Afterall, the U.S. is in the midst the Delta variant surge, Congress failed to pass legislation that could lead to around a million renters receiving eviction notices, and Bumbling Joe has no idea how to handle the border crisis.
Emmy voters are living in a version of The Handmaid’s Tale. Why give the show version an award?
Among Bridgerton, Pose, The Boys, and The Mandalorian, which show can score Emmy gold?
The Boys, although awesome, doesn’t have a chance. It’s too over the top. Too fantastically nonsensical and too much fun.
Pose, Bridgerton, and The Mandalorian all have a shot. We’re going with The Mandalorian. Not because it’s a better show, but because there was almost no politics in it, it was the most fun show of the year, and because it comes from Disney.
Netflix rearranged Hollywood. It changed the way we watch movies and television shows and it forced old Hollywood, which wasn’t all that old, to change. Although Emmy voters say they love Netflix, let’s be honest.
A lot of them hate Netflix for how they reimagined the studio system. The Netflix backlash could continue, which means The Mandalorian stands a strong chance to pull off the upset.
What show presents overlay odds? This is Us or Lovecraft Country?
HBO canceled Lovecraft Country, which means it won’t win the award. No Emmy nominated show has ever won Best Drama in it’s first and only season.
If HBO had reupped Lovecraft Country for an other season, who knows? Maybe, it would have taken the hardware. But because the excellent show got the cut, it has no shot.
This is Us has a better shot to win than Lovecraft Country. It also offers overlay odds. This is Us should offer odds on par with The Mandalorian and The Boys.
This is Us has a lot going for it. It’s about family. It’s a nice show. People love it, and it hails from a traditional network, NBC. Emmy voters could say, forget these streamers and let’s go with one the show from one of the historical Big 3 television networks.
If that happens, This is Us takes home the statue.