If you follow and wager on horse racing, you are probably well aware that the favorite usually wins about one-third of all races. That is good news for people who like to look for a horse at a decent price when putting their bets on. The Kentucky Derby has certainly provided more than its fair share of big priced winners in its 141-year history, which may be one of the reasons why people who don’t normally wager that much decide to have a flutter. The winning percentage of favorites that I mentioned earlier actually holds true in the Derby, as there have been 49 winners as favorite in the 141 years, which is good for about 35%. The large field, longer distance, and potentially tricky post position all make it tough on the favorites, but here are a few that might get the job done this year at shorter horse racing odds.
Top Betting Favorites to Win the 2016 Kentucky Derby
— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) May 5, 2016
The morning line favorite for the big race, and for very good reason. Nyquist is unbeaten in all 7 of his starts so far, and has 3 big wins at distances over 1 mile. This is a horse that doesn’t just win running one particular style. He has won going wire to wire, just as he has by stalking the pace and finishing big. The pace of the race dictates everything, and Nyquist has shown throughout his 7 starts that he can adapt to any pace. The biggest concern here is that his best performances have come at shorter distances, which is where his speed figures really jump out.
The main reason why Exaggerator sits behind Nyquist in the morning line is because he has already lost to him 3 times. Things could prove to be a little different here, though, as the trainer has changed the running style of this horse, now choosing to sit him of the pace just waiting to spring a big middle move. It certainly worked for him in the Santa Anita Derby, where he won going away over a sloppy surface. This is a horse that seems to revel in the mud, so consider getting your money on him if Lexington gets hammered with rain over the next few days.
It may have taken 6 races for Creator to break his maiden, but this is a horse that has made steady progress with each passing race. He is coming off a big win at the Arkansas Derby, where he made a lot of horse racing fans sit up and take notice. The knock against Creator is that he tends to be a notoriously slow starter, and that could go either way in this race. The extra distance gives him time to catch up, but if the pace gets hot up front, he could end up too far off the pace to be a legitimate threat in the stretch run.
Those are your top 3 favorites for the upcoming Kentucky Derby, but I thought it might be mice to leave you with a fun little fact. The #10 post is the one that has delivered the most Derby winners, and this year it is Whitmore who gets that slot. Perhaps not a bad bet at 20-1 in the morning line.