American Pharoah is Favorite On 2015 Kentucky Derby Odds

American Pharoah is Favorite on 2015 Kentucky Derby Odds

Written by on April 30, 2015

The first Saturday in May is upon us and that means it’s time for the biggest horse race in North America, the Run for the Roses. American Pharoah is the 5-2 morning-line favorite on Kentucky Derby odds to win the 141st edition of this race at Churchill Downs in Louisville on Saturday. Some are saying this could be one of the best fields ever as going back to 1955 this is the only Derby to have as many as five U.S.-based entrants who are undefeated at 3 years old. That Fab Five is led by 2-year-old champion American Pharoah, who won the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes in March and the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby a month later. The field also includes the winners of other major Derby prep races who remain unbeaten: the Santa Anita Derby (Dortmund), Florida Derby (Materiality), Blue Grass (Carpe Diem) and Louisiana Derby (International Star). Combined, those five horses are 13-0 this year.

Closer Look at Why American Pharoah is Favorite on 2015 Kentucky Derby Odds

How Will Post Positions Affect Horse Racing Betting Lines?

There is one piece of bad news for American Pharaoh and that’s he drew Post 18 in the 20-horse field. The only Derby winner to come from post 18 since 1930 was Gato Del Sol in 1982. Do post positions matter? The No. 5 and No. 10 slots have each had nine Derby winners with the No. 1 and No. 8 having eight winners each. Last year’s winner California Chrome broke from the No. 5 post. American Pharaoh is trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, who looks for his fourth Derby title and first since War Emblem in 2002. The horse will be ridden by Victor Espinoza, who won last year’s race aboard California Chrome. If Baffert’s drought doesn’t end with American Pharoah, it might with Dortmund, who is the 3-1 second favorite on Kentucky Derby odds and will start from Post 8. Dortmund is a son of 2008 Derby and Preakness winner Big Brown and has won all six of his career starts. Martin Garcia is aboard Dortmund. He has never won the Derby. The trainer, as usual, with the most horses in the Derby is Todd Pletcher, who won the 2010 Kentucky Derby with Super Saver. He will saddle Carpe Diem, Materiality, Itsaknockout and Stanford. Carpe Diem is the third favorite at 8-1 and starts from Post 2. He is ridden by John Velazquez, who won the 2011 Derby on Animal Kingdom. Materiality is the co-fourth betting favorite at 12-1 with Firing Line and is undefeated in three career starts, highlighted by a victory in the Florida Derby. He will break from Post 3 and is ridden by Javier Castellano, who has never won the Derby. Luis Saez is aboard Itsaknockout and rides from Post 13. Itsaknockout was fourth in the Florida Derby in his most recent race and is 30-1 on Derby odds. Florent Geroux will ride Stanford and break from Post 11. Stanford was second in the Louisiana Derby in his last race and is also 30-1 on Derby odds. The only other Grade 1 race winner this year in the field is Frosted, who won the Wood Memorial. He is ridden by 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Joel Rosario, breaks from Post 15 and is 15-1 to win.

My Betting Prediction

Baffert wins No. 4 with Dortmund.