With the 2019 Kentucky Derby going down live from Churchill Downs in Kentucky on May 4, now is a great time to offer up an early look on the favorites, contenders and longshots to win the biggest and most coveted horse race in North American thoroughbred racing.
Early Look at the 2019 Kentucky Derby
Game Winner and Maximum Security are co-morning line favorites for Pool 4: https://t.co/H0baYkdYBzKentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 4 opens Friday at 12:00pm EDT. pic.twitter.com/1iWwQZkBk4— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) April 4, 2019
With the field for the 145th Run for the Roses shaping up, let’s find out what’s going down at this year’s Kentucky Derby, starting with this early look at the odds to win and my top 6 picks to bring home the bacon and one mount you should avoid betting on when the 2019 Kentucky Derby takes place.
Odds to Win 2019 Kentucky Derby
- Maximum Security 6-1
- Game Winner 7-1
- Improbable 7-1
- Hidden Scroll 10-1
- Omaha Beach 10-1
- Instagrand 14-1
- Code of Honor 14-1
- Roadster 18-1
- Bourbon War 20-1
- Long Range Toddy 20-1
- War of Will 25-1
- Tacitus 25-1
- Anothertwistafate 25-1
- Spinoff 25-1
- Haikal 25-1
- Galilean 30-1
- Mucho Gusto 30-1
- By My Standards 30-1
- Cutting Humor 30-1
- Nolo Contesto 40-1
- Harvey Wallbanger 40-1
- Country House 40-1
- Alwayssmining 40-1
My Top 6 Picks
It’s three up and three down for Maximum Security. The new favorite to win the Kentucky Derby blew away the field by 3 1/2 lengths at the Florida Derby to improve to 4-0 in his career. The bottom line is that it’s hard to bet against a horse that has never been beaten.
Improbable went 3-0 as a two-year-old in 2018, but he finished second in Race 8 at the Rebel Stakes in his race in mid-March. Improbable will look for a good showing at the Arkansas Derby.
The Bob Baffert-trained mount won four times as a two-year-old and claimed the 2018 Breeder’s Cup Juvenile and the Eclipse award for 2-year-old colts. Game Winner did take a humbling defeat in his last race by finishing second to Omaha Beach at the Rebel Stakes in mid-March, but this thoroughbred will almost certainly challenge for the win.
After failing to win in three races as a two-year-old in 2018, the son of War Front has picked it up nicely in 2019. After finishing second in his first race at Santa Anita, this Richard Mandella trained horse has won his last two races at Santa Anita and Oaklawn Park, giving him the look and feel of a real contender to win the 2019 Kentucky Derby.
Long Range Toddy
No one is really talking about Steve Asmussen’s Long Range Toddy as a legitimate threat to win the Kentucky Derby, but this ‘semi-longshot’ mount has a trio of Top 3 finishes this year including a win in his last outing in race 8 at Oaklawn Park where he ran down Improbable for the narrow win.
Blaine Wright’s Anothertwistafate finished second in his last race at Sunland Park, but he found the winner’s circle in both of his previous two races to start the calendar year.
Save Your Betting Bucks!
In three races this year, Hidden Scroll has one win at Gulfstream Park in January, but he’s finished fourth and sixth respectively in his last two races and just doesn’t look like a legit contender right about now. Even at this early juncture, I’m going to say you Derby betting bucks would be better spent on another thoroughbred.
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