Kentucky Derby 2017 Can The Favorite Win Again?

Posted by Eric Williams on Wednesday,May 3, 2017 3:45, EDT in

For all the horse racing betting fans that are planning on wagering on the 2017 Kentucky Derby and want to know whether the favorite can win again or whether another contender or even a longshot, will upset the field, then you need a bit of a history lesson.

Kentucky Derby 2017 Can The Favorite Win Again?

 

 

Now, while you’re not going back to school, this look back at the history of favorites at the Kentucky Derby may make you want to dust off your old history books or give your favorite history teacher an unexpected phone call. Okay, enough with the small talk, let’s get down to business thoroughbred horse racing bettors.

Let me get started by saying that 50 out of the 142 Kentucky Derby races have been won by the favorite to make the winning percentage 35.2 percent for faves to bring home the bacon – or should I say roses?

Not only that, but apparently, favorites winning the Kentucky Derby is a cyclical thing that is quite streaky. Case in point…from 1979 to 2010 only five favorites found themselves with roses draped around their necks while a whopping 28 times, people that bet on a non-favorite ended up jumping for joy. That means that in 28 races, the favorite was clearly not the ‘safe’ bet everyone thought they would be.

While favorite failed to win in 2012 and 2013, each of the last three Kentucky Derby’ have been won by the favorite. In 2014 favorite California Chrome won by 1 3/4 lengths. In 2015, American Pharoah won by a length and last year, Nyquist won it all to make it three straight favorites in the winner’s circle heading into this year’s event.

For the 2017 Run for the Roses, top favorites, Always Dreaming at 5/1 and Classic Empire at 6/1, are looking good, but so are longer picks like Gormley at 12-1 and for me, Girvin at a value-packed 15-1. Whether you like the favored Always Dreaming or another derby hopeful, just remember, favorites certainly aren’t sure things when it comes to winning the Kentucky Derby, no matter how much anyone tells you they are.