On Saturday, Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit looks to add another Triple Crown jewel to his resume when he takes on 9 rivals in the 2021 Preakness Stakes. Medina Spirit has looked great in the mornings. His trainer, Bob Baffert, isn’t playing favorites. While Medina is the chalk on the morning line, Baffert trained Concert Tour is the second choice. See below for win, place, show, and fourth place Preakness Stakes picks.
Preakness Stakes: Plenty of Value After Top 3 Betting Choices
2021 Preakness Stakes
- When: Saturday, May 15
- Where: Pimlico Race Course, Baltimore, MD
- Weather: Mostly Sunny
2021 Preakness Stakes Odds
- Medina Spirit +200
- Concert Tour +275
- Midnight Bourbon +500
- Crowded Trade +1000
- Risk Taking +1200
- Rombauer +1200
- Keepmeinmind +1400
- Unbridled Honor +1600
- France Go de Ina +2000
- Ram +2500
Surprised? Don’t be. In the Kentucky Derby, Medina Spirit got away with a ridiculously soft second-quarter. Once Johnny Velasquez got Medina to the front, the Baffert trained runner coasted to a 24 to 25 second-quarter.
The half came out to more than 47 seconds. That’s slow at this level. There’s no way Medina gets away with slow fractions in the Preakness, which is why stalker Rombauer is the top pick.
The Mike McCarthy trained three-year old sired by Twirling Candy finished third behind Essential Quality and Highly Motivated in the Grade 2 Blue Grass in his last. McCarthy decided to forego a start in the Derby so Rombauer could prepare for the Preakness.
Although Rombauer must run faster than he has before to win on Saturday, his flexibility makes him an attractive longshot. When he won the El Camino Real Derby, he came from 11 lengths behind. In the Blue Grass Stakes, Rombauer stayed 2 lengths behind for most of the race.
He tired in the stretch, but still managed to hold on for third. If he’s ready, and McCarthy will ensure he is, Rombauer could pull of the upset win.
Second: Crowded Trade
Midnight Bourbon, Medina Spirit, and Concert Tour should all go for the lead. If that happens, horses like Rombauer, stalkers 2 to 3 lengths off the pace, will have an edge.
One of those horses with an edge is Chad Brown trained Crowded Trade. Brown won the 2017 Preakness with Cloud Computing. His horse in the 2021 Preakness has a similar style to Cloud Computing’s.
Crowded Trade looked great when losing the Gotham stakes by a nose. The More Than Ready sired runner bounced in the Wood Memorial. He’s been working great. A return to form puts him into the Top 3.
If he’s matured since the Wood, and he returns to his best form, Crowded Trade can win.
Third: Risk Taking
After a bobble at the start, Risk Taking lost all chance of winning the Wood Memorial. The horse appeared confused after bobbling. That, more than any other reason, is why Risk Taking didn’t respond to the jockey’s urging.
The second horse trained by Chad Brown, Risk Taking was all the rage after winning the Grade 3 Withers by 3 ¾ lengths. The Medaglia d’Oro sired equine has a smooth action to his stride. He’s as graceful of a racehorse as you’re ever going to see.
Like Crowded Trade, Risk Taking has worked great leading up to the Preakness. He’s another underdog with a chance to end Medina Spirit’s Triple Crown bid.
Fourth: Medina Spirit
The Kentucky Derby runner is a tough, talented, strong-willed horse. But we must face facts. Medina got an easy lead in the Derby because Midnight Bourbon couldn’t get to the front, Hot Rod Charlie hung back, and Rock Your World got slammed at the start.
Medina won’t get an easy lead on Saturday. Still, he’s a better choice to round out the superfecta than either Midnight Bourbon or Concert Tour.
We don’t know how good Concert Tour is while Midnight Bourbon has yet to take the next step. Medina Spirit should hang on for fourth. But unless he’s gotten better since the Derby victory, he won’t win the Preakness Stakes.