Now that we’ve had a couple of weeks for the major trades to set in, it’s time to revisit 2019 World Series odds. The Houston Astros’ odds continue to dip. Houston is the no holds barred favorite to win their second World Series in the past three seasons. Check out an analysis of the Astros’ current World Series odds along with other World Series thoughts as we head into the regular season final stretch.
Updated 2019 World Series Odds – August 13th
- When: Oct. 22 – Oct. 30
- Where: TBD
Odds to Win the 2019 World Series
- Houston Astros +160
- A. Dodgers +230
- New York Yankees +350
- Atlanta Braves +650
- Minnesota Twins +1300
- Cleveland Indians +1600
- Chicago Cubs +1700
- Tampa Bay Rays +2200
- Washington Nationals +2200
- New York Mets +2500
- Louis Cardinals +2800
- Milwaukee Brewers +3000
- Philadelphia Phillies +3500
- Oakland Athletics +3500
- Boston Red Sox +5000
- San Francisco Giants +10000
Do the Houston Astros offer overlay or underlay odds at +160?
The Astros are dominating the AL West. As of August 12, Houston has a 77-41 record. They’re 10 games ahead of the Oakland Athletics. They’re 29.5 games ahead of the worst team in the division, the Seattle Marines.
Not only is Houston dominating the AL West, they’re close to dominating the American League. The New York Yankees are 79-41. The Yankees win percentage of .658 is only ahead of Houston’s .653 win percentage by .005. That’s nothing in baseball.
Not only that, but the Astros have a +184 run differential compared to New York’s +159. So, even if the Yankees win homefield advantage throughout the AL Playoffs, Houston figures to dominate the Yankees should they play them. No other AL contender has a run differential that touches the Astros.
The Dodgers have a +192 run differential. If it ends up Dodgers-Astros in the Fall Classic, we saw how that story ended a couple of seasons ago. The Atlanta Braves might give Houston a better challenge than LAD, but the ATL shouldn’t hang with a fully healthy Houston team in the World Series.
This season, Zack Greinke throws for Houston. Greinke had a terrible first start, giving up 5 runs, and the Astros still won. He’ll settle down and become dominant. What it means is that at +160, the Astros are an underlay to win the World Series.
Which team in the American League offers overlay odds to win the 2019 World Series?
The Cleveland Indians are at +1600, but they might be the second best playoff team in the American League. Playoff baseball is different than regular season baseball. The New York Yankees aren’t built to win in the playoffs. Their starting pitching has declined pretty much since the end of April.
Cleveland is built to have success in the playoffs. The Tribe has a 3.66 team ERA. They rank first in Major League Baseball in bullpen ERA at 3.27. Cleveland has overtaken the Minnesota Twins in he AL Central. They lead the Twins by half a game and are on an 8-2 SU streak heading into their August 13 game.
Also, Corey Kluber threw for the first time on August 8 since a line drive broke his arm on May 1. Kluber threw 40 pitches for Triple A-Columbus. If the Tribe makes the playoffs and Kluber is back to his usual self, Cleveland will be tough. At +1600, the Tribe is an overlay.
Do the Dodgers offer fair odds at +230 to win the 2019 World Series?
Due to their regular season dominance, +230 seems like a gift. Dave Roberts must just manage the Dodgers to win the World Series because they should walk all over their competition in the NL Playoffs, right?
Not really. The Atlanta Braves are a good baseball team. The Braves made a couple of key trades to bolster the bullpen, Mark Melancon and Shane Greene. The Dodgers traded for lefty reliever Adam Kolarek. Kolarek no doubt will help LAD’s bullpen, but the BP ERA is up to 4.09. That’s not going to cut it in the playoffs.
There’s a chance Los Angeles doesn’t make it to the World Series. Even if they pull it off, they’re likely to have to contend with one of two dominant pitching squads, the Astros or Indians. +230 odds makes L.A. an underlay to win the Fall Classic.
Which team in the National League offers overlay odds to win the 2019 World Series?
If the Chicago Cubs can hold on and win the NL Central Division, they’ll have a shot. The starting rotation boasts a couple of lockdown playoff pitchers in Jon Lester and Cole Hamels. It doesn’t matter how well either throws during the regular season. In the playoffs, both are money.
The rotation ranks fifth in team ERA at 4.05. The bullpen ranks seventh in team ERA at 4.01. The Cubbies’ team batting average is .255. Also, can you imagine anyone out-managing Joe Maddon? Chicago will have a better shot than +1700 to win the World Series if they can make the postseason.