MLB Odds & Long Shot Picks Worth Going After

MLB Odds & Long Shot Picks Worth Going After

In 9 days, Major League Baseball throws first pitch on what should be an excellent 2023 season. With less than 10 days before the season starts, it makes sense for us to lock down on the top underdog and long shot future plays for the season.

Check out baseball odds, analysis, and six long shot plays for the 2023 MLB Season.

 

MLB Odds & Long Shot Picks Worth Going After

MLB Season Info | Updated MLB Odds
Duration: Thursday, Mar. 30 – Sunday, Oct. 1, 2023
Number of games: 162 games
Number of teams: 30 teams

 

Milwaukee Brewers To Win The World Series (+3500)

While the St. Louis Cardinals have put together a solid roster all around, it wouldn’t come as a surprise at all if the Brewers made the playoffs. In baseball, making a run at the World Series is often about getting hot at the right time, so just making it into the playoffs is half the battle. 

Headed by the two-headed monster of Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee would be a nightmare for any team that they went up against. Last year, Burnes went 12-8 with a 2.94 ERA, while Woodruff was 13-4 with a 3.05 ERA. Throw in a bullpen headed by Devin Williams, and the pitching staff is dangerous.

Offensively, the Milwaukee Brewers ranked 10th in scoring, averaging 4.48 runs per game. They don’t have the elite superstars, but they do have a full lineup of dangerous bats, including players like Willy Adames, William Contreras, Rowdy Tellez, Garrett Mitchell, Christian Yelich, and Jesse Winker.

After a subpar year last year, Winker could be a big addition to Milwaukee. After all, it was just two years ago that he hit .305 with 24 home runs in 423 at-bats.

The National League has some legitimate World Series contenders, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Brewers in that conversation by the end of the season.

American League Pick | Bet Milwaukee Brewers to Win World Series
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Chicago White Sox To Win American League (+1600)

Let’s be honest; the Tony La Russa experiment did not work. It wasted two years of the Chicago White Sox window, which makes new manager Pedro Grifol a huge boost to the White Sox chances of success.

Luckily, the AL Central continues to be mediocre, and it will be a three-team race between the White Sox, Guardians, and Twins. Expect a bounceback from the White Sox, who still boast a strong rotation led by Dylan Cease, Lance Lynn, and Lucas Giolito. 

White Sox’ lineup, Eloy Jimenez, Tim Anderson, Luis Robert, Andrew Vaughn, and others are all capable of doing damage. Moving to first base, expect Vaughn to improve on his already solid numbers from last year when he hit 17 home runs and had 76 runs batted in over 510 at-bats.

Chicago won the division by 13 games just two years ago, so to think they could make a run both at the division and the American League is certainly in the realm of possibility.

American League Pick | Bet Chicago White Sox to Win
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Arizona Diamondbacks To Win 90 Games (+1300)

The Arizona Diamondbacks might be one of the most fascinating teams in baseball this season. Between Corbin Carroll, Jake McCarthy, Alek Thomas, Gabriel Moreno, and Josh Rojas, they have one of the most exciting groups of young talent in the majors. 

Arizona ranked 14th in scoring last season, averaging 4.33 runs per game, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see that number improve this year.

The biggest struggle for Arizona will be on the mound. Zac Gallen is a legitimate ace, but there are tons of question marks behind him. Additionally, playing in the same division as the Dodgers and Padres won’t make life easy, but a more balanced schedule this season will reduce the number of matchups.

Again, the Diamondbacks will need things to go right with some of their young prospects, but there is definitely an avenue to them getting to 90 wins with their collection of young talent.

Win 90 Games Pick | Bet Arizona Diamondbacks W/L
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game


 

Christian Javier To Win AL Cy Young (+2100)

In three games (two starts) in the playoffs, Christian Javier went 2-0 with a 0.71 ERA and 16 strikeouts in 12.2 innings last season. During the regular season, he was 11-9 with a 2.54 ERA and 194 strikeouts in 148.2 innings.

Javier may have been one of the most dominant pitchers in the majors last season that no one really knew about. Overshadowed last year by Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez, Javier will definitely be known around baseball by the end of this year.

Slated as the No. 2 pitcher behind Valdez, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him as the Houston Astros’ ace by the end of the season. If he can carry over what he did last postseason into the regular season, he could make a run at the American League Cy Young Award.

Cy Young Pick | Bet Christian Javier to Win
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game


 

Los Angeles Angels to Win the AL Pennant

To Win AL Pennant Odds: | Giants +2100

The key for the Angels is if Tyler Anderson becomes a legit A2 in the rotation. Shohei Ohtani is a for real ace.

Ohtani posted fantastic stats last season at the plate and on the mound. Anderson played for the rival Dodgers. If Tyler improves upon his 2.57 ERA from last season, the Halos will challenge the Stros for the AL West because few teams have as good of a lineup at the plate as Los Angeles Angels.

NL Cy Young Pick | Bet Los Angeles Angels to Win AL Pennant
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game


 

San Francisco Giants to Win the NL Pennant

To Win NL Pennant Odds: | Giants +2100

There’s a chance the Giants’ starting rotation becomes one of the best in baseball. If it happens, for sure, the G-Men can beat the Dodgers and Padres and win the NL West.

Logan Webb is a legit Cy Young contender. Alex Cobb and Sean Manaea must rediscover the form that made them aces with their previous teams. If it happens, watch out. San Francisco will be a World Series contender.

NL Pennant Pick | Bet San Francisco Giants to Win NL Pennant
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game


 

Blue Jays Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Win the AL MVP

To Win AL MVP Odds: | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +1400
Team: Toronto Blue Jays
First Baseman | No. 27

Aaron Judge shouldn’t produce another record-breaking home hitting season. Shohei Ohtani, though, will be tough to beat for American League MVP.

If Ohtani remains healthy, he’ll win the award. But if Shohei gets hurt, or takes a backward step this season, and great players do have bad seasons, Guerrero Jr. is the play.

Vladimir hit 32 home runs and 97 RBIs in 2022. For sure, he can improve upon those numbers.

NL Cy Young Pick | Bet Blue Jays Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Win Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game


 

Brewers Matt Olson to Win NL MVP

To Win NL MVP Odds: | Matt Olson +2300
Team: Milwaukee Brewers
First Baseman | No. 28

All Olson must do is bring up the batting average to contend for the NL MVP. Matt hit 34 home runs and batted in 103 runs.

So if Olson can improve the batting average from .240 to .300 or better he should be an NL MVP contender.

NL MVP Pick | Bet Brewers Matt Olso to Win Today
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Astros Christian Javier to Win AL Cy Young

To Win NL Cy Young Odds: | Christian Javier +2500
Team: Houston Astros
Pitcher | No. 53

Javier offer overlay odds to win the AL Cy Young. Christian took a massive step forward on the biggest stage last season, dominating the Phillies in the World Series.

We should expect Javier to keep it going this season. He’s got all the tools to shut down his American League opponents.

Teammate Framber Valdez is another with a chance to win the AL Cy Young. But Javier offers much better odds and the two are level.

NL Cy Young Pick | Bet Astros Christian Javier to Win Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game


 

Mets Kodai Senga to Win NL Cy Young

To Win NL Cy Young Odds: | Kodai Senga +6400
Team: New York Mets
Pitcher | No. 34

Senga is third in the Mets’ rotation behind Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. So there’s a reason he offers +6400 odds to win the NL Cy Young.

But Kodai enters this season with a huge advantage. Nobody really knows how good he is. He dominated in the Japan League. It’s going to take time for MLB batters to get figure out Kodai.

Not only that, but because Verlander and Scherzer start ahead of Senga, Kodai could face the worst batting lineups in 3-game series throughout the season. Senga has a much better shot of winning the NL Cy Young than the 64-to-1 odds imply.

NL Cy Young Pick | Bet Mets Kodai Senga to Win Today
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2022 MLB Predictions: 4 Long Shots That Could Beat The Odds
 

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MLB’s Opening Day is on April 7 and while that sport doesn’t have a salary cap it has had a lot of parity of the past couple of decades – when is the last time the big-spending Yankees won a title? Here’s a look at four longer-shot teams to win the MLB pennant that could make some noise.

 

MLB 2022 Season Analysis

Minnesota Twins (+2800 for AL pennant)

The Twins have been very busy this offseason, trading for the likes of Reds pitcher Sonny Gray, Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez and signing the most coveted free agent on the market in ex-Astros shortstop Carlos Correa. The team also just signed pitcher Chris Archer. The two-time All-Star, was limited to six appearances last season with the Tampa Bay Rays. He threw 19 innings and accumulated a 4.66 ERA (86 ERA+) and a 2.63 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Just two of his appearances occurred before August. It’s a good low-risk, high-reward deal.

The Twins are in a really interesting spot heading into 2022 because they were really good in both 2019 and 2020 — with an average winning percentage of .612 (which equates to 99.1 wins per 162 games) across those seasons — yet they were also really bad in 2021. Suffering a stunning collapse in both pitching and defense, Minnesota won just 73 games and finished dead last in the AL Central.

This season marks Rocco Baldelli’s fourth as the Twins’ manager. He will enter the regular season with a career managerial record of 210-174 and two division titles (2019 and ’20). Baldelli is one of nine managers in team history (since 1961) with 200 victories, while his .547 winning percentage is second best among those who have managed the club for multiple seasons. There’s some potential here.

 

Seattle Mariners (+1400 for AL pennant)

The longest playoff drought in the majors belongs to the Mariners, who last made it in 2001. This writer believes they at least get a Wild-Card spot in 2022. Last year, Seattle finished with a 90-72 (.556) record, 2nd place in the AL West Division. Seattle went 19-10 (.655) in the month, 48-43 (.527) in the first half of 2021 and 42-29 (.592) in the second half.

The team’s biggest offseason addition was signing 2021 AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to along-term deal. The contract includes a no-trade clause for the first two years and an opt-out after the third. The 30-year-old led the AL last season in ERA (2.84), ERA+ (154), innings (193 1/3), starts (32) and WHIP (1.045), and he led the Majors with 248 strikeouts. A 2017 All-Star with Arizona, Ray will be an immediate top-of-the-rotation piece.

The club also traded for former Pirates All-Star second baseman Adam Frazier. The left-handed-hitting Frazier will take on the everyday second-base job for now, though his role will hinge on other acquisitions the Mariners make before Opening Day, particularly given that Frazier can also play left field.

Should Seattle need to make another trade, it has the best farm system in the majors.

 

Miami Marlins (+3300 for NL pennant)

The most well-known Miami Marlin had been team executive Derek Jeter, but in February he announced a surprise departure from the team after 4 1/2 mostly unsuccessful years that didn’t come remotely close to matching his success as a player for the New York Yankees. The Marlins had the fourth-worst record in baseball over Jeter’s four seasons, making the playoffs only in 2020 when more than half of the MLB’s 30 teams qualified in the pandemic-affected year.

The Marlins do have some very good young pitching, though. While Sandy Alcantara is firmly entrenched as the team’s frontline ace, the Marlins had no better pitcher in 2021 from a productive standpoint than Trevor Rogers. Though he only threw 133 innings across 25 starts — missing a month due to family health concerns — Rogers led all National League rookies in ERA (2.64), WHIP (1.15), and BAA (.218). Among pitchers with at least 120 innings pitched Rogers’ 2.64 ERA ranked 6th, and his 2.55 FIP trailed only eventual NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes (1.56).

The farm system remains one of the best, and the solid starting pitching should only get better as the arms continue to develop and mature. The offense is a big question mark, although the team added the likes of Avisail Garcia, Joey Wendle and 2021 World Series MVP Jorge Soler.  While power is the key to Soler’s game, he also is prone to the swing and miss. But when Soler makes contact, he often crushes the ball, as evidenced by his 82nd-percentile barrel rate. His 43 homers of at least 420 feet since 2019 are the most in the Majors.

From the very beginning of the offseason, the Marlins have made adding middle-of-the-order bats a priority after finishing 29th in OPS and runs, as well as 28th in homers, in 2021.

 

Washington Nationals (+7500 for NL pennant)

Since shocking the baseball world with their World Series run in 2019, the Nationals have put together a pair of disappointing, forgettable last place campaigns, losing 97 games in 2021. Former World Series MVP Stephen Strasburg has thrown under 30 total innings since the start of the 2020 season. Patrick Corbin has been healthy, but ineffective, posting a 5.50 ERA across 237.1 innings over the same two seasons

This is the biggest stretch of the bunch but the Nationals might have the best offensive player in baseball in Juan Soto. The Nats did get him some protection in signing Nelson Cruz, who can now DH full-time in the NL. Cruz, who is entering his 18th major league season, will turn 42 in July. With the Twins and the Rays last year, Cruz batted .265 with 32 home runs and 86 RBI in 140 games. He is coming off his seventh All-Star appearance.

Washington also has two very touted prospects who came over from the Dodgers last summer in catcher Keibert Ruiz, a favorite for NL Rookie of the Year, and pitcher Josiah Gray.

 
4 Long Shots That Could Beat the 2019 World Series Odds
 

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With the 2019 MLB regular season set7 to get underway in just over 24 hours, now is a perfect time to offer up some expert betting analysis that could hep you cash in all season long. That’s right MLB betting faithful, thanks to the eye-opening insight that you’re about to get on four longshot 2019 World Series odds hopefuls, you’re going to be able to make a series of wise wagers on each team – and their respective opponents all season long.

With that said and Opening Day pitches about to be thrown everywhere, let’s get started.

 

4 Long Shots That Could Beat the 2019 World Series Odds

Milwaukee Brewers

  • 2019 World Series Odds: 20/1

I have no idea why the Milwaukee Brewers (96-67) are lower favorites in the National League than a St. Louis Cardinals team they beat by seven games in the NL Central last season or hell, a Chicago Cubs team they also bested by a game to claim the NL Central crown a year ago. No matter, the Brewers look like a team that could surprise in a big way for the second straight season. Milwaukee has a true superstar in reigning 27-year-old NL MVP Christian Yelich (36 Hrs, .326 BA, 110 RBIs) and seriously talented hurler in reliever Josh Hader (2.30 ERA, 12 Saves), not to mention the fact that they will, have an ‘us against the world’ mentality after being overlooked – despite their fantastic season that saw them reach the seventh game of the NLCS last season.

 

Atlanta Braves

  • 2019 World Series Odds: 20/1

The Atlanta Braves are a value-packed 20-1 long shot despite going 90-72 to win the NL East last season. That’s okay though, I like Atlanta a lot heading into 2019 and so much so that I believe they could challenge for the NL Pennant. Atlanta has some impressive young talent in players like outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. (.293 BA, 26 HR) and shortstop Dansby Swanson and some solid veteran leadership starting with guys like third baseman Freddie Freeman. If Atlanta improves its modest pitching from a year ago, I believe the sky is the limit for this once, perennially-powerful franchise.

 

Oakland A’s

  • 2019 World Series Odds: 30/1

I know the Okaland A’s play in the same AL West as the powerful Houston Astros, but this is a team that won 97 games a year ago which is more than any team in the National League and the AL Central. Oakland has a fantastic closer in Blake Treinen (38 saves). The A’s accomplished all of this despite not having a regular position player bat at least .300 and no starting pitcher that won more than a dozen games. Oakland had four starters compile ERA’s under 3.88 and it is that kind of understated effort that could help Oakland challenge for the AL wild card – and a chance to dethrone Boston – and 2017 World Series -winning Houston – in the postseason.

 

Colorado Rockies

  • 2019 Wolrd Series Odds: 40/1

The Colorado Rockies finished a game behind the NL West-winning Dodgers last season and their 91-win campaign means that could be even better in 2019. Colorado has an MVP candidate in veteran third baseman Nolan Arenado (38 Hrs, 110 RBI, .297 BA) and another in young shortstop Trevor Story (37 HR, 108 RBI, .291 BA) not to mention, outfielder Charlie Blackmon will be looking to get back to the MVP-caliber campaign he unleashed on the NL in 2017 (.33 BA, 37 HR, 104 RBI). The Rockies have a rock-solid team leader in second baseman Daniel Murphy and if their pitching holds up, the Dodgers might fail to reach the postseason altogether after representing the NL in each of the past two Fall Classics.

 
Four 2017 MLB Betting Longshots & Their Odds
 

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On the surface, the 2017 Major League Baseball season looks like it may be chalk. Five of the six division winners from last season – Boston, Cleveland, Washington, Chicago Cubs and LA Dodgers – are favored in the MLB odds to repeat in the this year. But there are always a few surprises. Here are four who could battle for wild-card spots in 2017.

 

Four 2017 MLB Betting Longshots & Odds

Tampa Bay Rays (+5000 For AL Pennant)

The Rays have some of the best young pitching in baseball – but will they hit? Opening Day went about as well as possible as ace Chris Archer looked back to 2015 form after losing a league-high 19 games last year. Archer allowed just two runs on seven hits and one walk across seven strong innings Sunday against the Yankees. He struck out five. Archer ran into a bit of trouble in the second inning when he yielded two runs after three straight batters reached base, but he settled down and allowed just one hit through the next 15 batters. The key will be not getting buried in April and May because the schedule is really tough. The Rays’ first 14 games are against AL East rivals New York, Toronto and Boston. In the month of April, the Rays will play 26 games—all against opponents who finished 2016 above .500. Through May 21, only 4 of the Rays first 46 games are against teams that finished 2016 below .500, a home-and- home series with the Marlins from May 1-4. They have only one off-day in the month of May.

 

Los Angeles Angels (+3000 For AL Pennant)

The Angels have the best player in baseball in Mike Trout, so if everyone else is simply league average they could sniff 88 wins. Trout enters his sixth full Major League season in 2017. Last season, the 25-year-old hit .315 (173/549) with 32 doubles, five triples, 29 home runs, 100 RBI and a Major League leading 123 runs scored, 116 walks and .441 OBP. He earned his second career American League MVP Award, becoming the first player to win the award twice in an Angels uniform. He has finished in Top Two of MVP voting each of last five seasons, joining Barry Bonds (2000-04) as only players to accomplish the feat. Trout hit a two-run homer on Opening Day but go no other offensive help. Three lineup additions — infielders Danny Espinosa and Luis Valbuena and outfielder Cameron Maybin — should help Trout, but much of the Angels’ 2017 fate depends upon the elbows of Garrett Richards, Matt Shoemaker and Tyler Skaggs.

 

Miami Marlins (+4500 For NL Pennant)

The Marlins took the biggest gut-punch of last season, losing ace pitcher Jose Fernandez, the face of the franchise and on a potential Hall of Fame path, in a fatal boating accident. The team added two starting pitchers via free agency and trade in Edinson Volquez and Dan Straily. The former had a rough year with the Royals, with a 5.37 ERA and 23 home runs allowed in 189 1/3 innings, but he was excellent in 2014 for Pittsburgh and in ’15 for Kansas City as he helped the franchise win the World Series. He should benefit from the move to Miami’s pitcher-friendly park and the NL East as a whole. Straily, meanwhile, is an up-and- coming arm who put up a 3.76 ERA, 113 ERA+ and 4.3 WAR for the Reds last year. Just 28 years old, the right-hander cost the Marlins three of their top prospects. The Marlins might have the best offensive outfield in MLB and should hit. Will they pitch?

 

Arizona Diamondbacks (+6000 For NL Pennant)

Just about everything that could go wrong in 2016, when the Snakes thought they were NL West contenders, did go wrong, from star outfielder AJ Pollock’s nearly season-ending injury and the struggles of pitchers Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller. But the talent is there. Miller and Greinke were both awful, with the former losing his rotation spot for half the year and the latter finishing with a 4.37 ERA, his worst in 11 years. The D-backs begin the season with 14 straight games against 2016 playoff clubs (Giants, Indians and Dodgers) and in 17 of their first 20. Maybe karma is on Arizona’s side. In the season opener Sunday, Arizona won despite an opposing pitcher hitting 2 home runs for the first time since the Royals’ Jim Rooker had a pair of round-trippers in a 6-5 loss on July 7, 1969 at the Twins. Teams with a pitcher hitting 2 home runs had won 16 consecutive times prior to Sunday and are 61-6 since 1919.

 
 
 
 

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