2015 Baseball Betting on Win Totals

Posted by Alex Murphy on Thursday,June 18, 2015 1:05, EDT in

While the revenue-sharing deal that Bud Selig ushered in has given the league more parity – which may be one factor in the Kansas City Royals and the Texas Rangers coming out of nowhere to appear in recent World Series – it has also made it more difficult to gauge win totals for teams in Major League Baseball. For example, baseball betting experts and oddsmakers projected 15 teams to finish within 3 1/2 games of .500. But how are they doing so far?

A Quick Guide for the 2015 Baseball Betting on Win Totals

What Teams to Look At?

Consider how baseball betting sites evaluated the Boston Red Sox, putting their over-under for wins at 86 1/2. It’s true that the Red Sox picked up a ton of talent, such as Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez. They also got some good ground ball hurlers who can eat up some innings for them. Boston only won 71 games last year, but many people thought this year would be different. However, so far the Sox are a paltry 28-38, eight games behind Tampa Bay and losers of seven of their last ten. So if you chose the under here, you were wise.

Major baseball betting sites also chose the New York Yankees to win 81 1/2 games – in other words, that they would finish right at .500 for the season. As of June 17, the Yanks are holding a little better than form with a 34-30 record, a game back of Tampa Bay. This looks like it’s going to be a decent pick. The Yankees are 5-5 in their last 10, and they look like they have that same up-down movement that you would expect from a .500 team.

One team that turned out to be underrated was the Houston Astros. Baseball betting sites set their over/under for wins at 74 1/2, and even though it’s not even halfway through the season, the Astros are getting well on their way, having already won 38 games. They have 94 games left, and they only have to win 37 games (and lose 57) to beat that proposition bet.

The Oakland Athletics, on the other hand, could be way overrated, even though baseball betting sites only set their over/under at 80 1/2. Despite the best of Sonny Gray‘s pitching, the team is only 28-39, which means they need to go 63-32 the rest of the way to carry the over. Given the fact that GM Billy Beane is already considering entering the seller’s market, that’s an over that is extremely unlikely to come to pass.

What’s the Best Choice for Baseball Betting on Win/Loss Totals?

Sometimes looking at historical trends is helpful. For example, the St. Louis Cardinals are not only usually a strong franchise, but they play in a division that usually has at least two soft teams out of five. That makes it easier, in an unbalanced schedule, to pile up the wins. A division with a lot of turmoil, such as the American League West, is often best to avoid. While the Houston Astros were terrible last year, the arrival of a ton of young talent made quick improvement a possibility.

Given the fact that the A’s, Rangers and Mariners haven’t shown a lot of consistency over the past three years, choosing any team out of that group was a real crapshoot. Who would have known that the Mariners would have the division’s best pitcher in King Felix, one of the best DH’s in Nelson Cruz and one of the best hitting infielders in Robinson Cano, only to languish below .500? Who would have known that the Angels would pay more than 80 percent of Josh Hamilton’s contract and trade him to a team IN THE DIVISION? You just can’t predict these things, so in divisions with chaos, sometimes it’s best to stay away.