MLB Betting Analysis & Prediction: Nationals at Diamondbacks

Posted by Jordan Walters on Thursday,May 10, 2018 9:58, EDT in

Arguably the marquee series of the weekend starts Thursday in the desert as Washington visits Arizona in a matchup of 2017 playoff teams. The current Snakes easily lead the NL West, while the Nationals are likely to take control of the NL East sooner rather than later and MLB betting favorites to win it again.

How to Bet Nationals at Diamondbacks MLB Odds & Game Info

When: Thursday, 9:40 PM ET
Where: Chase Field, Phoenix
Probable pitchers (away/home): Tanner Roark/TBA
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Radio: 106.7 FM (Washington) / 98.7 FM (Arizona)
Opening MLB Betting Lines: TBA

Season Series

Arizona won two of three vs. Washington in D.C. in late April so this weekend will be their last meeting of the regular season. On April 27, the Snakes won 5-4. AJ Pollock homered and scored three runs. The Arizona bullpen retired 12 of the 13 batters it faced, with Brad Boxberger working a perfect ninth.

In Game 2, Arizona won 4-3 in 10 innings. Nick Ahmed scored the winning run on a bases-loaded walk. The Diamondbacks also got two solo homers from David Peralta, making them the first National League team since the 1907 Cubs to win their first nine series in a season. Washington avoided the sweep with a 3-1 win in the finale. Gio Gonzalez struck out eight over seven strong innings.

Why Bet on Washington?

Something unique happened Wednesday in San Diego for the Nats: Bryce Harper wasn’t in the starting lineup for the first time this season. He’s not hurt, just marred in a 0-for-19 slump. Even with the struggles, Harper still has a .410 on-base percentage and a .541 slugging percentage to go along with his 12 homers and 28 RBIs. Harper went 6 for 17 with four home runs in the first four games after the 25-year-old slugger moved to the top spot in the Nationals’ lineup before cooling off.

One guy who has been hot is Matt Adams. Entering Wednesday, he was hitting .308 with 10 home runs, 24 RBIs, and a .426 on-base percentage. Playing both first base and left field in the wake of the injuries that have hit the Nationals (Daniel Murphy, Adam Eaton, Brian Goodwin, Anthony Rendon), he’s been a versatile asset for manager Dave Martinez.

It’s Tanner Roark (2-3, 3.65) on the mound here. Roark took the loss against the Phillies on Saturday, allowing three runs on six hits and three walks over 6.1 innings while striking out nine. Roark continued his steady run of solid starts with his fifth straight outing of at least six innings, but he didn’t get much help from his offense, as Washington was limited to two hits and one run. The nine strikeouts equaled his season high, and he threw 70 of his 115 pitches for strikes en route to his fifth quality start in seven appearances. Roark settled down after allowing a two-run homer in the first, yielding just one additional run in the sixth.

Why Bet on Arizona?

Are the Dbacks a safe bet on Thursday?

It’s not yet clear who starts this game with Taijuan Walker out for the season and Robbie Ray on the DL. Braden Shipley was a possibility but earlier this week was placed on the 10-day disabled list, retroactive to May 5, with right elbow inflammation. Shipley was called up from Triple-A Reno last week but had not made an appearance for the Diamondbacks.

The team initially purchased Triple-A starter Kris Medlen to replace Ray, but Medlen got lit up for seven runs and nine hits through four innings last Friday and was sent back down. Triple-A starter Taylor Clarke is an option for Arizona, though he has struggled in seven starts with Reno. The 24-year-old right-hander has gone 2-5 with a 5.91 ERA this season.

It could be ace Zack Greinke as he would be on normal rest. Greinke settled for a no-decision on Saturday after giving up one run on five hits (one homer) and two walks with five strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings against Houston. Greinke (3-2, 4.10 ERA) made one mistake to George Springer, who crushed a solo home run in the fifth inning. Statcast measured it at 110.4 mph off the bat, with a distance of 442 feet. Greinke has had pinpoint control so far this year, with 47 strikeouts and six walks in 41 2/3 innings. Saturday marked the first time he’d allowed multiple walks in a game this season.

Entering Wednesday, the D-backs are 18-1 (.947) when scoring 4+ runs, the best mark in the Majors ahead of the Angels (17-2, .895), Yankees (23-3, .885), Giants (17-3, .850), Mets (15-3, .833). Arizona has won 13 straight games when scoring 4+ runs, 21 of 22 games (since Sept. 26, 2017), 25 of 27 (since Sept. 13, 2017) and 35 of 40 (since Aug. 22, 2017).  Of the D-backs 265 hits, 113 have been for extra bases. Their 42.64 percent of extra base hits-to-hits leads the NL (average is 34.87%), ahead of Dodgers (37.58%; 112:298), Braves (37.39%; 123:329) and Cubs (37.11%; 108:291).

Latest MLB Betting Trends

  • Washington is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
  • Washington is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington’s last 8 games on the road
  • Arizona is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games at home
  • Arizona is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games at home
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona’s last 6 games at home

Expert MLB Betting Prediction

You will want to wait for confirmation on Arizona’s starter. If it’s Greinke, take the Snakes. Washington if not.