Gio Gonzalez was signed off the scrap heap earlier this season by the Milwaukee Brewers and Gonzalez has been a godsend for a team that badly needs starting pitching. However, Gonzalez and the Brew Crew are MLB Betting underdogs Wednesday against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Brewers vs Phillies MLB Spread, Game Info & Expert Pick
- When: Wednesday, 7:05 PM ET
- Where: Citizens Bank Park
- Probable pitchers (away/home): Gio Gonzalez/Jake Arrieta
- TV: MLB Extra Innings
- Live Stream: MLB.tv
- Radio: SiriusXM
- MLB Spread: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (Total 8.5)
Why Bet on Milwaukee?
Will the Brewers have outfielder Ryan Braun in the lineup? Braun appeared as a pinch-hitter again Monday versus the Phillies. Braun came off the bench to single in the fifth inning. He’s missed three straight starts with a left hamstring injury but has been pinch-hitting so it can’t be too serious. Braun and Christian Yelich currently rank first and third, respectively, in career batting average all-time at Citizens Bank Park. Braun is batting .378 with 24 HR and 69 RBI in 72 career games against the Phillies.
Entering the series, Lorenzo Cain had only four hits in his last 31 at-bats (.129) and 10 hits in his last 58 at-bats (.172). Those skids dropped his overall average to .246 with a .304 on-base percentage, far below his averages at the end of 2018: .308 and .395. However, Cain was 5-for-6 on Monday with an RBI and a run scored. Two of those hits were doubles, and he also stole his fourth base of the season. He scored on a Christian Yelich double in the first, and he drove in Ben Gamel with his own two-bagger in the fourth. His batting average on the season jumped to .266 with the night, but the Brewers still lost.
The Brewers have called up their top prospect, second baseman Keston Hiura from Triple-A San Antonio, the team announced Tuesday. Hiura, 22, is ranked as the No. 15 overall prospect in baseball by MLB.com. The Brewers drafted Hiura as the ninth overall pick in the 2017 MLB Draft. He’s likely to take the place of third baseman Travis Shaw, who isn’t hitting, has a bad wrist and likely heads to the injured list. Hiura was hitting .333/.408/.698 with 11 home runs over 37 games at Triple-A.
Lefty Gio Gonzalez (1-0, 1.69) has been the steady hand the Brewers needed to stabilize their rotation. Through three starts, including a win over the Cubs last time out, Gonzalez has a 1.69 ERA. He tossed 5.2 shutout innings Friday, allowing only two hits with three strikeouts and three walks to earn a victory over the Cubbies.
Signed originally just as a place-holder starter at the end of April, Gonzalez has been a pleasant surprise. He hasn’t pitched past the sixth inning in any of his three MLB outings this year, but he also has yet to yield more than two runs in any appearance. He has a 0.94 WHIP and 12 strikeouts across 16 innings. Gonzalez says he’s just happy to be in a big-league uniform again.
- Runs: 4.75
- Hits: 8.39
- Walks: 3.91
- Strike Outs: 9.59
- Runs: 4.59
- Hits: 8.41
- Walks: 3.77
- Strike Outs: 9.32
Why Bet on Philadelphia?
Pat Neshek fired a scoreless inning to pick up his second save of the season against the Brewers on Monday. Neshek allowed a hit, but he left the runner stranded while not walking or fanning anyone. He threw all nine pitches for strikes, and the scoreless inning drops his ERA to 3.68.
Usual closer David Robertson (elbow) will be shut down for the next three weeks following a visit with Dr. James Andrews. Robertson resumed throwing a few days ago but evidently had a setback and now will miss at least another month or so of action. He’s been sidelined since mid-April with a Grade 1 flexor strain in his right elbow.
Through 40 games, the Phillies had the same record (24-16) and run differential (+42) as they did at the same point last season. The club has won five of their last six games (entering Tuesday), outscoring opponents 36-6 in the victories. The Phillies lead their division by 3 1/2 games; they have the third-best record in the NL, trailing the Los Angeles Dodgers by only 1 1/2 games.
This month, Cesar Hernandez is slashing .429/.500/.686 with eight runs scored, 10 singles, three doubles, two home runs, eight RBI, four walks and six strikeouts spanning 11 games and 42 plate appearances.
The Phillies’ Jake Arrieta (4-3, 3.78) will be looking to bounce back from a 5-1 loss against the Royals last Friday when he surrendered three home runs, all on elevated pitches. Arrieta allowed four runs on seven hits with five strikeouts and three walks across five innings. Arrieta came into Friday having allowed three home runs in his last four starts combined. It’s worth monitoring, but his HR/FB is normal, and he isn’t giving up many more fly balls this year. So there’s nothing to suggest homers are going to start being an issue for Arrieta.
“Just too many mistakes up in the zone,” said Arrieta, who is at his best when he’s throwing his sinker and cutter down in the zone. “I have to force them to put the ball on the ground and I didn’t do that.”
- Runs: 5.12
- Hits: 8.34
- Walks: 4.20
- Strike Outs: 8.85
- Runs: 4.22
- Hits: 9.00
- Walks: 3.29
- Strike Outs: 8.49
Brewers vs Phillies MLB Betting Trends
- Brewers are 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter
- Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 Wednesday games
- Phillies are 26-10 in their last 36 home games vs. a left-handed starter
- Phillies are 4-1 in Arrieta’s last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record
- Brewers are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games against Philadelphia
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee’s last 6 games on the road
- Phillies are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games at home
- The total has gone OVER in 14 of Philadelphia’s last 20 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Expert Final Score Prediction for Brewers vs Phillies
Milwaukee Brewers 4 – Philadelphia Phillies 5