Can Marlins Beat Braves in MLB Lines on Thursday Night?

Posted by Jordan Walters on Thursday,May 10, 2018 9:08, EDT in

Some odd scheduling for Atlanta thus far in 2018. The Braves have played the NL East rival Nationals, Phillies and Mets twice each. Yet Thursday is their first game this season against the division’s other team, the Miami Marlins. Atlanta is a slight MLB lines favorite at our online sportsbook.

Braves at Marlins MLB Lines Pick & Preview – May 10th

When: Thursday, 7:10 PM ET
Where: Marlins Park, Miami
Probable pitchers (away/home): Mike Foltynewicz/Caleb Smith
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream: MLB.tv
Radio: 680 AM (Atlanta) / 940 AM (Miami)
Opening MLB Lines: Braves -120, Marlins +110 (8)

Why Bet on Atlanta?

Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson (wrist) might not be ready to return from the disabled list when he’s first eligible. Swanson landed on the disabled list last Friday after tweaking his left wrist on a swing last Wednesday. Tests ruled out any structural damage, but he’s dealing with inflammation that will need some time to subside. Johan Camargo will continue to fill in at shortstop for now. Swanson is a former No. 1 overall pick.

“Honestly, I haven’t even looked that far in advance,” Swanson said. “I’ve really just tried to stay with the mindset of living right now and [taking things day to day]. Whenever I’m back, I’m back.”

The Braves have a good closer in Arodys Vizcaino, who recorded his fifth save with a scoreless ninth against the Rays on Tuesday. Vizcaino has picked up four saves the last two weeks after getting just one in the Braves’ first 23 games of the year. His ERA stands at 1.72. The Braves tossed their fifth shutout of the season Tuesday, tied for the second most in the majors and one off the lead of the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Braves had six shutouts all of last season.

The Braves offense leads all of baseball in batting average (.270) and on-base percentage (.338). 2B Ozzie Albies is hitting .500 (17-for-34) in the first inning this season. His 17 hits, 12 runs, and nine extra-base hits in the first are all the most in the majors, while his five homers are tied for the lead.

Who Will Start Off for the Braves?

Atlanta starts Mike Foltynewicz (2-2, 3.65) here. Foltynewicz lost Friday after allowing six runs on nine hits and two walks with four strikeouts in five innings vs. the Giants. Foltynewicz needed 56 pitches to complete the first two innings and ended up allowing a season-high six earned runs on nine hits over five innings. The 26-year-old right-hander has completed five innings or fewer in four of his first seven starts, as he hasn’t been efficient while averaging 98 pitches per start.

Why Bet on Miami?

Are the Marlins a safe bet on Thursday?

The Marlins took a surprising four series winning streak into the North Side of Chicago to start this week but were swept by a combined score of 31-9.

Don Mattingly was so frustrated with how the Marlins performed in their loss on Tuesday to the Cubs — with a lack of intensity and disregard for baseball fundamentals — that he closed the clubhouse doors before Wednesday’s game to voice his concerns.

Yet his team then went out and lost 13-4 on Wednesday. Miguel Rojas hit a two-run homer for Miami in the seventh, and Bryan Holaday added solo drive in the ninth. Two of the Marlins’ eight hits belonged to pitchers, one (Wei-Yen Chen) who brought a career .016 average (1 for 61) into the game and the other (Merandy Gonzalez) who never had a big-league hit in his life.

How Have the Catchers Done So Far?

Marlins catchers have combined to throw out 12 runners this season, the most in the Majors, ahead of Baltimore (11), the White Sox (10), and Oakland (10). Since April 8, the Marlins have allowed only four stolen bases, while throwing out nine. Opponents haven’t attempted a stolen base in any of the last six games. Marlins backstops have thrown out 56.0% of attempted runners this season, the highest percentage of any team, ahead of Washington (48.3) and Milwaukee (42.9).

LHP Caleb Smith (2-3, 3.67 ERA) looks to win his third straight start here. Smith is coming off back-to-back scoreless outings against Colorado and Cincinnati in which he allowed just five hits over 122/3 innings.  On Saturday, Smith the Reds to three hits and one walk with seven strikeouts in 5 2/3 scoreless innings. In his past three outings, he’s allowed just two runs over 18 2/3 innings (0.96 ERA), with 26 strikeouts and two walks. The left-hander has 48 strikeouts over 34 1/3 innings on the season (12.6 K/9). He had issues with walks to start the season but now looks to have rediscovered his command.

Latest MLB Lines Trends

  • Atlanta is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 games
  • Atlanta is 7-3 SU in the last 10 games
  • The total went UNDER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 5 games on the road
  • Miami is 10-5 ATS in the last 15 games
  • Miami is 2-5 SU in the last 7 games
  • The total went UNDER in 11 of Miami’s last 16 games

Expert MLB Betting Prediction

My top recommendation here would be under the total but a small lean on the moneyline to Atlanta in the MLB lines.