Cubs vs Braves

Cubs vs Braves | MLB Betting Lines

Written by on April 27, 2021

The Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves play the second game of their four-game series from Truist Park on Tuesday and the Braves appear to have the starting pitching edge with young right-hander Ian Anderson. Atlanta is favored behind him on the MLB odds.

How to Bet Cubs at Braves MLB Odds & TV Info

Why Bet on Chicago? | MLB Betting Lines

This series marks Chicago’s first visit to Atlanta in over two years as the clubs last met at Truist Park, April 1‐4, 2019, when the Braves swept a three‐game series during the Cubs season‐opening road trip. The teams did not meet in 2020 due to the truncated 60‐game regular season schedule. The Cubs won their first four games at Truist Park from July 17, 2017‐May 15, 2018, but have struggled there since.

The Cubs active roster features four former Braves: lefty Rex Brothers pitched for the Braves in 2017‐18, outfielder Jason Heyward and closer Craig Kimbrel both played here from 2010‐14, and righty Dan Winkler pitched for Atlanta from 2015‐19.

The Cubs are 8‐1 when plating four or more runs in a game, but 2‐10 when scoring fewer than four. The team is 7‐1 when out‐hitting opponents, but just 3‐10 when hit totals are equal or the club has been out‐hit.

It’s right hander Trevor Williams (2-1, 4.66) on the mound here. Williams gave up two runs over five innings last Thursday in a no-decision against the Mets. Williams matched a season-high with six strikeouts and only handed out one free pass. He generated 14 swinging strikes and finished with 29 percent CSW (called strikes plus whiffs). A two-run homer by Pete Alonso in the fourth inning accounted for all of the damage against him.

Williams allowed one run over five innings against Atlanta on April 17 in Chicago.  Williams will make his fifth appearance (fourth career start) against the Braves. He has totaled a 1‐0 record, along with a 2.50 ERA (5 ER/18.0 IP), allowing only one home run in his career against them. He has lasted at least 5.0 innings in his last three starts against Atlanta dating back to May 24, 2017. The Braves have a .197 batting average against Williams (13 H/66 AB) and he averages 15.7 pitches per inning against Atlanta.

Why Bet on Atlanta? | MLB Betting Lines

The Braves are without center fielder Christian Pache. Braves manager Brian Snitker said recently that the team wants Cristian Pache to get consistent at-bats at the team’s alternate training site to “get his swing back.” Pache was off to a slow start at the plate, hitting .133 in 11 games before suffering a groin injury earlier this month.

Atlanta is struggling as a whole offensively. Freddie Freeman currently has five homers and a 122 wRC+ but also a .170 BABIP. Ozzie Albies has an 83 wRC+ and a .163 BABIP despite walking more and striking out less. Dansby Swanson has a 61 wRC+ and his strikeout rate has ballooned to 32.9%. They’re hitting just .215 as a team with a .309 OBP. And if you take superstar Ronald Acuna out of the equation these numbers are even more horrendous.

Their BABIP – batting average on balls in play, which doesn’t count home runs – is .249, third-worst in the majors. A low BABIP is an indicator that you’re hitting better than it seems. Pitching-wise, the Braves are 29th in team ERA. Only the Angels have been worse. The Braves are 27th in batting average against and WHIP (walks/hits per inning). They’re 26th in home runs yielded. They’re 26th in FIP (fielding independent pitching).

Ian Anderson (1-0, 3.27) is on the mound for Atlanta. Anderson walked four but still managed to shut the Yankees out over 6 2/3 innings last Wednesday in the Braves’ 4-1 win. Anderson walked four for the second straight start and also struck out a season-low four batters. He permitted just four singles, though, and got help from reliever A.J. Minter, who bailed Anderson out of a bases-loaded jam in the seventh by inducing a DJ LeMahieu groundout.

“That was huge,” Anderson said. “I lost command a little bit there and started to kind of go more to the off-speed. But A.J. coming in and getting that out, I’d say, was the key to the game.”

It’s been an inconsistent start to the campaign for Anderson — he entered the game having allowed seven earned runs across his last 10.1 innings — though he’s still managed to maintain a 3.27 ERA despite posting only a 23:11 K:BB across his first 22 frames. His 64 strikeouts are the most by any Braves pitcher through his first 10 career appearances. Anderson didn’t face the Cubs in the first series this year.

Game Trends

  • Cubs are 3-10 in their last 13 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Cubs are 9-3 in their last 12 Tuesday games.
  • Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Braves are 12-4 in their last 16 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Expert Prediction

  • Braves 5, Cubs 2
 
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