Houston vs Kansas City ALDS Game 5 MLB Odds Analysis

Posted by Daniel Strum on Wednesday,October 14, 2015 1:08, EST in

Leading 6-2 entering the eighth inning in Game 4 of their ALDS encounter against the Kansas City Royals, the Houston Astros and their MLB betting fans had all but secured qualification for the ALCS game. So much did it look like a finished job that, late in the game, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott sent a tweet congratulating the Astros on advancing to the AL Championship Series. That was until Astros shortstop Carlos Correa and his costly error happened, allowing the Royals to rally a 5-run eighth inning to shellshock the capacity crowd at Minute Maid Park with an 8-6 loss for the home team.

And the results, as you’d expect, were dire for the Astros. For starters, they lost a golden chance to clinch the series and now their fate is wildly uncertain in a Game 5 meeting in Missouri. Even more worryingly for bettors looking to wager on the Astros in the MLB odds, Houston will be facing Kansas City’s star pitcher, Johnny Cueto, a fiery pitching beast who will be throwing fire behind the support of a raucous crowd at the Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium.

Can Houston’s starter Collin McHugh, who led the Astros to a win in Kansas City during Game 1 last week, find a way of going 2-0 in this series-deciding game, or will the Royals have the last laugh in tonight’s baseball betting lines? Read on as we give some quick hits on this enticing clash, including free MLB picks for SU, ATS, and total bettors.

An Inside Look at the Houston vs Kansas City ALDS Game 5 MLB Odds Analysis & TV Info


Starting Pitchers: Collin McHugh vs. Johnny Cueto
Series Standing: Series Tied at 2-2
Venue: Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Date: Wednesday, October 14, 2015
Time: 8:07 PM ET
TV: FS1
MLB Lines: Houston (+128), Kansas City (-138), OVER/UNDER 7.5

Betting on the Royals

Since being traded to the Royals in July, Cueto has not yet been able to find the rhythm that made him a hot commodity during the MLB trade deadline. Essentially, that the reason he finished the regular season with an iffy 11-13 record and 3.44 ERA.

His playoff start in Game 2 wasn’t any good different, as he surrendered four earned runs in six innings. However, he was able to avoid sinking KC with him, as the Royals edged out a 5-4 win, thanks to a strong late-game surge by KC’s offense against Houston’s bullpen. Given his year-long struggles in a Kansas City uniform, Cueto (0-0, 6.00 ERA) will need to silence his critics wrong by having a huge game.

Meanwhile, KC’s star batsman Kendrys Morales, who impressed against McHugh in Game 1 with two homers, will also need to get his wood cracking once again. Salvador Perez and Eric Hosmer, who’ve also been impressive so far for in the playoffs the Royals, must also find ways of going deep to help the Royals avoid a home elimination.

Betting on the Astros

After blowing a magnificent lead and qualifying chance in Game 4, it’s hard to imagine that the baseball gods will be giving the Astros another winning chance tonight. All the religious talk aside, the Astros will have their fate in the hands of the lately-reliable pitcher, McHugh.

In his in 16 road starts in the regular season, McHugh decently went 7-4 with a 4.05 ERA. Even more notably, McHugh started for Houston in Game 1, and got the winning decision after surrendering just two earned runs (both homers) on four hits in six innings of work. His solid pitching in that game allowed the Astros to draw first blood in the series with a 5-2 win. After such a performance, McHugh will be confident that he can close out this series in the same way he started up things last week.

Of course, McHugh will need all the support he can get from the Houston offense that was able give a good shift of work like they did in Game 1 last week. In this regard, Jose Altuve (who was 3 for 5 with an RBI and a run scored in Game 1), Colby Rasmus (who had a crucial solo blast in the eighth and finished 1 for 3 with two RBIs and the homer) and George Springer (who went 2 for 4 with a solo homer, an RBI and a walk in that game) must man up once again.

Rasmus will particularly need to give a leading performance, considering he bests the Houston hitters with solid numbers against Cueto. In his career against Royals ace, Rasmus has hit .333 with three doubles, five RBIs, a homer and has drawn three walks. Carlos Gomez, and Carlos Correa are the other hitters who will be key to the Astros in this game.

Key Betting Trends

  • Houston is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
  • Kansas City is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
  • Houston is 6-4 in its last 10 road games
  • Kansas City is 5-5 in its last 10 home games
  • Houston is 9-4 SU in its last 13 overall games against Kansas City
  • Kansas City is 4-2 SU in its last 6 overall games against Houston
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 7 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston’s last 5 games on the road
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston’s last 7 overall games against Kansas City

Game Betting Prediction

Cueto lives up to his price tag by outpitching McHugh, and KC’s offense chips in handily, earning the Royals (-138), the important win, with the total most likely staying low for an UNDER affair.

MLB Picks: Kansas City for the SU and ATS, Total stay UNDER