NL West MLB Betting Analysis for the 2017 Season
No division race is going to be more fun to watch this season than the NL West, with the LA Dodgers, Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies all having a winning percentage above .600 as of this writing? Who wins it? L.A. is the MLB betting favorite for a fifth straight NL West title.
Let’s look at the contenders – the Padres and Giants are both already out of the race.
NL West MLB Betting Analysis for the 2017 Season
— Dodger Insider (@DodgerInsider) June 27, 2017
Dodgers Are Raking
As of Monday, the Dodgers have won 10 games in a row. For the Dodgers, it’s their longest winning streak since winning 10 straight from Aug. 7-17, 2013. Since that time, the Dodgers had not had a winning streak of more than seven games. The Dodgers’ offense has sustained them during their winning streak.
Since the streak started on June 16, they lead MLB with 79 runs scored (the Astros are second with 67), have hit 27 home runs (the Cardinals, second in that time, had 23 entering Sunday night) and own a 1.015 team OPS.
How is Cody Bellinger Doing So Far?
Cody Bellinger’s six multi-home run games are already just one shy of the rookie single-season record set by Mark McGwire in 1987. Bellinger got to his sixth such game much quicker than any other player. He now has the most homers through his first 60 games than any player in MLB history.
Let’s see how pitchers adjust and attack Bellinger. One option would be to throw him more fastballs on the inside part of the plate, since he’s hitting .176/.200/.412 on inside fastballs, but those stats have come in only 35 plate appearances.
Pitching-wise, the Dodgers have the third-highest on-base percentage in the big leagues, the eighth-best slugging percentage and are slashing .265/.367/.459 with runners in scoring position. Their starting pitchers’ 3.52 ERA is second the major leagues and has the second-best ERA in the game, at 2.91, and a nearly 4-to- 1 strikeout-to- walk ratio.
Diamondbacks Rarely Lose At Home
Arizona’s 48-28 record (.632) is their best 76-game start in club history. team’s best 77-game start ahead of 2001 (46-31, .597). The D-backs have won 11 of their last 13 games and 14 of their last 17. Arizona has won five consecutive series at Chase Field. It has nine series victory at home overall, matching their 2016 season total.
The D-backs are 13-2 in their last 15 home games since May 15. Overall, their 28-10 (.737) home record is second in the Majors (Dodgers, 32-10, .762). The D-backs’ .730 winning percentage (27-10) since May 15 is second in the Majors behind the Dodgers (.744, 29-10) and ahead of the Astros (.667, 26-13) and Rockies (.590, 23-16).
Goldschmidt Makes the Difference
Paul Goldschmidt leads the NL with 4.0 wins above replacement this season, ahead of Max Scherzer (3.5), Corey Seager (3.2) and Justin Turner (3.2). Fernando Rodney, who has a career-best 9 straight hitless outings, has not allowed an earned run in 18 straight games since May 1, going 14-for- 15 in save chances with a 0.00 ERA.
Rockies Are No Slouches, Either
This is only the second season in franchise history in which the Rockies have gotten to at least 20 games above .500 at any point (2009). The last time was at the end of the 2009 season when the Rockies finished 92-70. Colorado’s all-time highwater mark is 24 games in ‘09 at 92-68.
The Rockies are 25-15 away from Denver, tied for the most road wins in the National League (Washington, 25-15). The Rockies have only had one winning record away from Denver in a season, going 41-40 in 2009.
Charlie Blackmon has joined Chuck Klein (24 home runs, 12 triples in 1932) and Johnny Callison (15 home runs, 10 triples in 1965) as the only three players in Major League history to record at least 15 home runs and 10 triples prior to July 1. Blackmon currently leads the Majors in hits (100) and triples (10).
Could Cracks Be Showing?
No team in MLB is relying more on rookie starting pitchers, but it’s not really an issue of innings pitched for Colorado, with the rookie foursome of Antonio Senzatela, Kyle Freeland, Jeff Hoffman and German Marquez.
The only one with a potential limit on his total this season is Senzatela, who already has amassed 88.2 IP after totaling only 34.2 last season, when he was shut down due to a rib muscle injury.
The other three combined season innings totals from 2016: Hoffman 150, Freeland 162, Marquez 187.1. Only Freeland (currently at 87 2/3 IP) is on a pace to reach 180 IP for this season.
But the four rookies have seen their ERAs jump in June. The good news is that top starter Jon Gray is scheduled to return on Friday, when the Rockies will start another key series against the Diamondbacks in Chase Field.
Latest NL West MLB Betting Trends
- 7-1 ATS in the last 8 games
- 10-1 SU in the last 11 games
- The total went OVER in 13 of LA Dodgers’s last 17 games
- 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games
- 12-2 SU in its last 14 games
- The total went UNDER in 4 of Arizona’s last 6 games at home
- Colorado is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
- Colorado is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Colorado’s last 6 games
Upcoming NL West Schedule
- June 27th, 2017 vs LA Angels. 10:10pm ET
- June 28th, 2017 @ LA Angels. 10:07pm ET
- June 29th, 2017 @ LA Angels. 10:07pm ET
- June 30th, 2017 @ San Diego. 10:10pm ET
- July 1st, 2017 @ San Diego. 10:10pm ET
- June 27th, 2017 vs St. Louis Cardinals. 8:40pm ET
- June 28th, 2017 vs St. Louis Cardinals. 8:40pm ET
- June 29th, 2017 vs St. Louis Cardinals. 2:40pm ET
- June 30th, 2017 vs Colorado Rockies. 9:40pm ET
- July 1st, 2017 vs Colorado Rockies. 9:10pm ET
- June 27th, 2017 @ San Francisco Giants. 10:15pm ET
- June 28th, 2017 @ San Francisco Giants. 3:45pm ET
- June 30th, 2017 @ Colorado Rockies. 9:40pm ET
- July 1st, 2017 @ Colorado Rockies. 9:10pm ET
- July 2nd, 2017 @ Colorado Rockies. 4:10pm ET
Final NL West MLB Betting Predictions
By the way things are looking, the Dodgers have too much firepower and the money to add whatever they need. L.A. wins the West again. Any how, the All Star Break will be upon us within the next couple of weeks, so we might have a different perspective by then. For now, start placing those bets and have fun!