Generally, I like to bet under Major League Baseball totals in afternoon games, especially if they are after night games. Why? The players’ body clocks are a bit off and the shadows from the sun often can help the pitchers for some innings if it lingers over home plate. But with that said, here are three games I would parlay over on betting odds on for the coming weekend.
Taking a Quick Look at the MLB Parlay Betting Picks for the Coming Weekend (June 18-19)
Mr. Mariner, Rookie of the Year, rounds the bases. #TBT
— #VoteMariners (@Mariners) June 17, 2016
Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox (Saturday, June 18th)
Back in the winter, the Red Sox traded starting pitcher Wade Miley to Seattle for reliever Carson Smith and swingman Roenis Elias. Miley, a lefty, gets to face his former mates on Saturday afternoon at Fenway Park and I don’t think it will go all that well for him. Miley (6-3, 5.28) has certainly disappointed thus far. Miley allowed three runs on four hits and three walks across just five innings in last Sunday’s loss to the Rangers. He struck out six. He cruised into the fourth inning, but the Rangers struck quickly, plating three runs on a double and a home run that gave them the lead for good. Miley is 7-5 with a 4.30 ERA in his career at Fenway, but this is his first time pitching against the Red Sox. The Sox, the highest-scoring team in baseball, go with right-hander Rick Porcello (7-2, 3.81). He had a no-decision last Sunday, giving up four runs (one earned) on five hits and two walks over seven innings while striking out five in an extra-inning loss to the Twins. The unearned runs allowed Porcello to get his ERA back under 4.00, but after an impressive run to begin the season he’s now gone four straight starts without a decision, posting a 4.56 ERA. I expect a high total here, likely 9, but still go over.
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles (Saturday, June 18th)
We stay in the AL East for another likely high-scoring game with two inconsistent pitchers on the mound. It’s 41-year-old knuckleballer R.A. Dickey (4-7, 4.16) for Toronto. Dickey gave up three runs on five hits with two walks and four strikeouts over 6.1 innings in Monday’s loss to the Phillies. Dickey has enjoyed quite a bit of success over the years at Camden Yards. He owns a 3.32 ERA over seven appearances, six starts, in Baltimore. The Orioles go with Yovani Gallardo (1-1, 7.00). He was terrible in four starts this year before going on the DL in late April with shoulder trouble. He’s lost 12 pounds since, thanks to a rigorous training plan, and has made three rehab starts on his road back. Gallardo takes the spot of struggling Ubaldo Jimenez in the rotation. This also is likely to have a total of 9.
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians (Saturday, June 18th)
The worst pitcher in baseball right now? It’s probably White Sox right-hander James Shields (2-8, 5.45). Here are Shields’ numbers over his past three starts, one with San Diego and then two with Chicago after coming over in trade: Sixty-five batters faced, 29 outs, 25 runs, 10 walks, six homers and four strikeouts. Just 22 days ago, his ERA was 3.06, but it has inflated to 5.45. Shields is constantly behind in the count, which is crushing for a pitcher who doesn’t overpower opposing hitters and instead relies on his off-speed pitches. His first-pitch strike percentage this year is only 52 percent. The Tribe go with Danny Salazar (7-3, 2.19). In 10 of his 12 starts, Salazar has yielded two or fewer runs. Opposing teams are hitting just .181 vs. the right-hander and he has surrendered two runs off six hits in 13 2/3 innings over two starts this month. This total might be around 8 on betting lines because Salazar has been good, but you can’t trust Shields at all. Go over because he may allow eight by himself again.