MLB Betting Report on Milwaukee’s GM Doug Melvin Resigning
It’s been a strange season for general managers, with two of the most respected minds in the game now out on the open market, their teams having decided to head in a new direction. Dave Dombrowski, who constructed the winning Florida Marlins teams and also led the Detroit Tigers into their recent decade of dominance, is now without a job, with Al Avila holding his job for the time being. Now Doug Melvin, who built the Texas Rangers into their first baseball betting sensation in the late 1990s and then did the same thing for the Milwaukee Brewers, is no longer the general manager there either.
Taking a Look at the MLB Betting Report on Milwaukee’s GM Doug Melvin Resigning
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) August 11, 2015
How Will This Change Affect Milwaukee’s MLB Betting Lines?
So why did Melvin’s time in Milwaukee come to an unpleasant end? Three reasons stand out. The first is that the prospect mine stopped producing. Between 1999 and 2008, the first round picks that the Brewers used brought in such talent as Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Ben Sheets, Matt LaPorta, Jake Odorizzi and Brett Lawrie. Between 2009 and 2012, though, the Brewers had nine first-round picks, but only Taylor Jungmann has made it from that group to the major leagues. It’s true that the Brewers were drafting later in the round, when it’s tougher to find top-tier talent, but the fact that they weren’t getting first-rounders who could become useful in the major leagues meant that the farm system could not replace talent as the core aged and demanded bigger contracts. The best player to emerge from the Brewers’ farm system since 2010 has been corner outfielder Khris Davis. Wily Peralta and Jimmy Nelson have emerged as pitchers, but they are still average at best.
The second reason has to do with both Zack Greinke trades. The first sent Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffress and Jake Odorizzi to Kansas City to secure Greinke’s services in the 2011 season. He did pitch well, the team picked up 96 wins, and the Brewers went to the playoffs for the second time while Melvin was in Milwaukee. So the team did well with its short-term gain. The team was not contending in 2012 when they sent Greinke to the Los Angeles at the trade deadline, with the aim of replacing the pitchers and shortstop they had had to send away to get Greinke the year before. However, the Brewers got Ariel Pena, Johnny Hellweg and Jean Segura. Segura started 2013 well but has been terrible since, and the other two (both pitchers) have not contributed at all. Over the long view, the Brewers would be better if they still had those prospects and had never traded for Greinke in the first place.
Finally, the team has kept using some awful players instead of finding better ones. Five players have had more than 200 plate appearances (and two have had more than 400) even though they have a negative WAR score. WAR stands for Wins Above Replacement, and it refers to the difference that player makes in comparison with an average major leaguer. Eight players altogether have taken 18 percent of Milwaukee’s plate appearances since the start of the 2012 season, and they have combined to be a -3.0 in terms of WAR. Lots of teams end up using players who aren’t very good, but most of them figure it out and make a change. The Brewers didn’t, so the ownership made a change in the front office, and Melvin is out.