San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 2021 MLB Expert Analysis

Written by on April 22, 2021

The most heated rivalry in Major League Baseball is renewed starting Thursday night from Los Angeles as two teams that clearly don’t like each other, the Padres and Dodgers, open a four-game set. The Dodgers are favored Thursday on the MLB odds.

How to Bet Padres at Dodgers MLB Odds & TV InfoSeason Series

Los Angeles won two of three in San Diego last weekend in a highly-entertaining series. The Dodgers won the opener in 12 innings and the second game 2-0 thanks to a game-ending, diving grab by center fielder Mookie Betts. The Padres won the finale when Eric Hosmer delivered the tying and go-ahead RBI in the seventh and eighth innings. San Diego had lost seven straight in the rivalry, including a three-game sweep in last year’s NL Division Series.

Why Bet on San Diego? | 2021 MLB Expert Analysis 

Outfielder Wil Myers and second baseman Jake Cronenworth should both be in the starting lineup after they sat Wednesday’s finale vs. Milwaukee. Myers struck out three times in four at-bats Tuesday and has reached base just once in his last eight plate appearances. He still has reached base safely in 15 of his 17 games this season (.413 OBP) and is batting .341 vs. RHP (15-for-44) and .200 (2-for-10) vs. LHP

Cronenworth went 0-for-4 with a pair of strikeouts in Tuesday’s loss to the Brewers. His 8.5 swing and miss percentage is the best on the team and he has hit safely in 9 of his last 11 games, batting .304 (14-for-46).

The Friars have a 42.8 hard-hit percentage, tied for the 2nd-best mark in baseball with the A’s and behind just the Braves (43.3%).  The Padres’ .334 OBP ranks 4th in the Majors and 3rd in the National League, behind just the Dodgers (.352) and Reds (.338). The Padres have a 19.7 strikeout percentage, which is the lowest in the National League and the 2nd lowest in the Majors (Astros’ 18.5%).

It’s lefty Ryan Weathers here. Weathers struck out three batters over 3 2/3 scoreless innings with one hit and two walks in a no-decision last Friday against the Dodgers. Weathers was the first high school pitcher taken in the 2018 draft to make a major league start. The 21-year-old held his own against tough competition, throwing 46-of-79 pitches for strikes and inducing seven whiffs. Weathers averaged 95.1 miles per hour on the fastball and topped out at 97.1.

Padres manager Jayce Tingler said that Weathers has earned another start and will remain in the starting rotation for the time being. The team may go with a six-man rotation.

Why Bet on LA Dodgers? | 2021 MLB Expert Analysis 

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said he expects Mookie Betts to return Thursday against the Padres. Betts was held out of Tuesday’s matinee game in Seattle after taking a pitch off his right forearm in the ninth inning Monday night. X-rays were negative, and L.A. had Wednesday off. Betts is hitting .292 early in the season with two homers and already had one of the signature defensive moments of the season with his game-ending catch in the ninth inning last Saturday in a win over San Diego.

Closer Kenley Jansen has been terrific in the early going. In Tuesday’s save vs. Seattle, he even hit 97 mph multiple times — something he had not done in four years. Jansen has allowed only two hits and tallied 10 strikeouts among the first 32 batters he has faced to begin the 2021 campaign.

It’s Walker Buehler (1-0, 2.00) on the mound here. Buehler surrendered two runs on seven hits and one walk with four strikeouts in a no-decision against the Padres last Friday. The 26-year-old right-hander walked his first batter of the season — Jurickson Profar — in the second inning. Luis Campusano would follow with a single to score a run. The only other run Buehler would allow was a solo home run by Fernando Tatis in the fifth inning.

He wasn’t able to pick up his second win of the campaign, however, as it took 12 innings for the Dodgers to finally put their rival away. Buehler’s strikeout numbers have been down this season — the right-hander has collected only 12 K’s across 18 innings — but he has held opponents to only four earned runs across his three starts.

Buehler is unbeaten in six career starts against the Padres, going 4-0 with a 1.62 ERA (7 ER/39.0 IP). He has 39 Ks in 39.0 innings vs. San Diego with a 0.82 WHIP. Buehler also faced the Padres in Game 1 of the 2020 NLDS in Arlington, allowing one run on two hits in 4.0 innings in a no-decision.

Game Trends
  • Padres are 16-37 in their last 53 games as an underdog.
  • Padres are 3-7 in their last 10 during game 1 of a series.
  • Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
  • Dodgers are 48-18 in their last 66 games following an off day.
  • Padres are 19-48 in the last 67 meetings in Los Angeles.
  • Under is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in Los Angeles.
Expert Prediction
  • Dodgers 5, Padres 3

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