Baltimore vs Washington MLB Odds Analysis

Posted by Daniel Strum on Tuesday,September 22, 2015 6:25, EST in

There are just 2 weeks left in the regular season, which means that teams  and MLB betting fans who find themselves in a hole have very little time left to dig out. The Washington Nationals have dug themselves a deep one through the course of the season, but the events of last week have left them clinging to a little bit of life. They will welcome in the Baltimore Orioles for 3 games, the second of which is set for Tuesday night.

Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals MLB Odds Analysis

Date/Time: Tuesday, September 22, 2015 7:05 PM ET
Venue: Nationals Park, Washington DC
TV: MASN
Radio: 106.7 The Fan
Opening Lines: Washington -125, Baltimore +115

 


 

It looked for all the world as though the postseason dream was over for the Nationals (78-71) when they were swept by the Mets in the early part of September, but they have been able to keep plugging away, and have turned a 9.5 game deficit into a 6 game gap. That’s a brave effort, but they still need an awful lot to go their way in order to find a way into the postseason. The Wild Card route looks out of the question, which means they need to hope that the Mets collapse in a way that will make the final series of the season mean something.

Those final 3 games will see the Nationals head to New York to face the Mets, and when you look at who Washington has to play between now and then, you see that they have a chance. This series against the O’s is by far the toughest of the lot, and may well end up being make or break for the Nats. Tanner Roark (4-6, 4.73 ERA) will be on the mound for Washington.

Mathematically, there are still 9 teams who have a shot at catching the Houston Astros for the final AL Wild Card spot. The reality is that the majority of those teams have no chance, and that is a category that the Baltimore Orioles fit right into. With the Nationals, Blue Jays, and Yankees to play in the final 2 weeks, the chances of the Orioles making some kind of magical run that would close the 5.5 game gap they face right now seems pretty slim.

They do have a chance to play the role of spoiler, though, and they can start that with a series win over Washington. Chris Tillman (9-11, 5.19 ERA) will be on the mound for the Orioles.

Key Betting Trends

  • Baltimore is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Washington
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore’s last 6 games when playing Washington
  • Baltimore is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Washington
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
  • Washington is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Baltimore
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington’s last 6 games when playing Baltimore
  • Washington is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Baltimore
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington’s last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore

Consider This Before Placing Your Bet

Tillman really hasn’t pitched very well of late, and has also seen his team lose 4 of his last 5 starts on the road. For me, that swings things in the favor of the Nationals, who I believe will get the win in this one.