Top SU MLB Betting Picks & Previews for This Sunday

Posted by Kenny Bell on Friday,July 14, 2017 10:32, EDT in

I believe that pitchers will be ahead of hitters this weekend out of the All-Star break. Why? Because all the starting pitchers will be on extra rest thanks to the break, meaning they should have a bit more on their fastball and more movement on sliders and curves. Here are three straight-up MLB betting picks I recommend for this weekend.

Top SU MLB Betting Picks & Previews for Sunday

Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds

When: Sunday, July 16th. 7:10pm ET.
Where: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio
TV:  MASN (Washington) / FS-O (Cincinnati)
Radio: 106.7 The Fan (Washington) / WLW 700 (Cincinnati)
Live Stream: MLB.tv
MLB Betting Odds: TBA

Why is Homer Bailey still pitching in the majors? The Reds’ 31-year-old right-hander is 2-2 with an MLB-worst 8.31 ERA. OK, he does come off back-to- back quality starts. In his first two outings of the season after returning from an elbow injury in late June, he allowed a combined 14 earned runs over four and two-thirds innings (27.00 ERA) in losses to the Nationals and Brewers.

Bailey is now the 99th pitcher since earned runs became official (1912 NL, 1913 AL) to be allowed to start at least two more games after posting an ERA of at least 20.00 over his first two starts of a season. Of those 99, the only others to win their third and fourth starts while allowing no more than one run in each both pitched for Cleveland – Don Black in 1948 and Dennis Eckersley in 1976.

Who Will The Nationals Send Out to Start Sunday?

It’s Tanner Roark (6-6, 5.27) for Washington. Roark’s first half was largely a disaster as he battled mechanical issues and difficulty putting away hitters with two strikes. He threw five innings and gave up three runs out of the bullpen against the Braves on July 8.

Roark was bombed on June 25 vs. Cincinnati, allowing six runs and nine hits over six innings in a 6-2 loss. Because of that and recent struggles, the Nats won’t be heavy favorites here even though they are the much better team. It’s thus good value to take them.

Latest MLB Betting Trends

  • Nationals are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 games
  • Reds are 4-2 ATS in the last 6 games
  • Nationals are 5-2 SU in the last 7 games
  • Reds are 4-2 SU in the last 6 games
  • The total went OVER in 4 of Washington’s last 5 games
  • The total went UNDER in 9 of Cincinnati’s last 10 games

Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves

When: Sunday, July 16th. 7:10pm CT.
Where: SunTrust Park, Atlanta, Georgia
TV: FS-A (Arizona) / FSSO (Atlanta)
Radio: KHOV 105.1 (Arizona) / 93.7 FM (Atlanta)
Live Stream: MLB.tv
MLB Betting Odds: TBA

I don’t often recommend road teams unless they have an ace on the mound. But I will here behind Arizona’s Zack Godley – only because of how bad Atlanta’s Jamie Garcia has been. Godley (3-3, 2.58) emerged as a reliable No. 3 starter for the D-backs during a breakout first half.

He allowed one run in 5 2/3 innings (vs. the Dodgers) in his last start. The 27-year- old has enjoyed some luck on batted balls (.236 BABIP), but his 3.11 FIP, 3.1 K/BB ratio and 59.5 percent ground-ball rate still paint him as someone who should continue to succeed.

What Has Happened to Jamie Garcia?

Meanwhile, the Braves’ Garcia (2-7, 4.55) gave up five runs over six-plus innings in his last start, coming against Houston. The left-hander allowed a season-high 10 hits and his WHIP increased to 1.35 as a result.

He’s now lost four straight decisions and hasn’t won since May 26. His run of success in May and early June is a distant memory, as the veteran lefty has now been tagged for 23 runs over his last four starts (22 innings), leaving him with a bloated 4.55 ERA.

Latest MLB Betting Trends

  • Diamondbacks are 4-2 ATS in the last 6 games
  • Braves are 6-3 ATS in the last 9 games
  • Diamondbacks are 1-5 SU in the last 6 games
  • Braves are 2-4 SU in the last 6 games
  • The total went UNDER in 6 of Arizona’s last 8 games
  • The total went OVER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 6 games

Are the Astros a safe MLB betting pick against the Twins on Sunday?

Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros

When: Sunday, July 16th. 1:10pm CT.
Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston, Texas
TV: FSNO (Minnesota) / ROOTSW (Houston)
Radio: Go 96.3 (Minnesota) / KBME 790 (Houston)
Live Stream: MLB.tv
MLB Betting Odds: TBA

It’s Kyle Gibson (5-7, 6.31) on the mound for the Twins. He lost after allowing seven runs on nine hits and two walks with a strikeout in four innings last Sunday against the Orioles. Gibson was tagged for at least six runs for the fourth time in 16 starts, and it was the fifth time he lasted fewer than five innings.

Among players with at least 80 innings pitched, only Ubaldo Jimenez's 6.67 ERA is worse than Gibson's 6.31 mark. His road ERA is 5.20 and during the day, which this is, Gibson is 1-5 with a 7.02 ERA.

Who Will the Astros Pick to Start Off on Sunday?

Houston goes with Mike Fiers (5-4, 3.84). Fiers lost after giving up three runs on five hits (one homer) and four walks with six strikeouts over six innings last Saturday against the Blue Jays. Fiers allowed his first homer since May 25, which scored all three runs he was charged with. The quality start was his fifth in his last eight outings, during which he’s posted a 2.49 ERA to lower his season mark from 5.21 to 3.84.

The right-hander has done a much better job of avoiding the home run ball recently, which hurt him early in 2017. Go Houston here – and the over total if you want to double up.

Latest MLB Betting Trends

  • Twins are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 games on the road
  • Astros are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 games
  • Twins are 1-4 SU in the last 5 games on the road
  • Astros are 6-2 SU in the last 8 games
  • The total went UNDER in 10 of Minnesota’s last 15 games on the road
  • The total went OVER in 8 of Houston’s last 9 games