2018 NBA Championship Betting Analysis: Where to Put Your Money

Posted by Eric Williams on Tuesday,May 29, 2018 3:40, EDT in

With the 2018 Finals now set and a fourth consecutive matchup between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors set to get underway on Thursday night, May 31, NBA Championship betting enthusiasts everywhere need to know where the best value lies for the upcoming finals.

There are a bunch of places where you can put your betting bucks, but before I get started, let me say that they’re mostly going on the Golden State Warriors (duh?).

Okay, with that said, and based on the latest NBA Finals odds, let’s rock and roll.

2018 NBA Championship Betting Analysis: Where to Put Your Money

2018 NBA Finals Schedule

  • Thursday, May 31st: Game 1
  • Sunday, June 3rd: Game 2
  • Wednesday, June 6th: Game 3
  • Friday, June 8th: Game 4
  • Monday, June 11th: Game 5 (If Needed)
  • Thursday, June 14th: Game 6 (If Needed)
  • Sunday, June 17th: Game 7 (If Needed)

Cavaliers vs. Warriors – When Will Series Finish?

  • Four Games +180
  • Five Games +120
  • Six Games +300
  • Seven Games +330

While the Cavs and Warriors both needed seven grueling games to get past their respective conference finalist opponents, you had best believe that Golden State is a virtual lock to win the NBA Finals over Cleveland. Just looking at each teams’ offense will give you a glimpse of why the Dubs are overwhelming favorites to take down LeBron James and the Cavs for the second straight season and third time in the last four years.

Cleveland ranked fifth in scoring by putting up a solid 110.9 points per game while also ranking fifth in field goal percentage shooting (47.6%), sixth in three-point shooting percentage (37.2%) and 10th in free throw shooting percentage ( 77.9%).
Unfortunately for the Cavs though, Golden State was just better across the board. The Dubs ranked a phenomenal first across the board by averaging 113.5 points per game while shooting 50.7 percent from the field, 39.1 percent from downtown and 81.5 percent from the free throw line.

My pick is identical to last season’s NBA Finals outcome. Golden State in 5!

NBA Playoff Series Prices

  • Cavaliers +710
  • Warriors -1020

Look, there’s no reason to beat a dead horse. Cleveland was led in every significant offensive category by LeBron James while the Warriors have four all-stars in Kevin Durant, Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green. It’s not even fair at this point! It’s going to cost you just over a G, but the Dubs are the clear 2018 NBA Championship betting pick!

Exact Series Result

  • Warriors 4-1 +130
  • Warriors 4-2 +380
  • Cavaliers 4-2 +1600
  • Warriors 4-3 +330

I said I liked Golden State in five games, but if you need some reasons why, let’s look at both teams’ defense. Cleveland was awful in ranking 26th in points allowed (109.9 ppg) while being equally pitiful in field goal percentage defense (47.4%, 28th) and three-point defense (38.8%, 22nd).

The Warriors come in as the 2018 NBA Championship Betting favorites.

Golden State ranked an uninspiring 18th in points allowed (107.5 ppg), but what you need to know is that the Dubs were outstanding in field goal defense by ranking third (44.7%) and were rock-solid in three-point defense as well in ranking 10th (35.7%) against their opponents’ deep balls.

Now, let’s get to some of the key ATS trends surrounding both teams as we get set for what looks like a mostly lopsided Finals matchup (again).

  • Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record
  • Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall
  • Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 vs. Western Conference
  • Cleveland is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 Thursday games
  • Under is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 road games
  • Under is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 vs. Western Conference
  • Warriors are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 2 days rest
  • Warriors are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games following an ATS win
  • Golden State is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 games following a straight up win
  • Golden State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 Thursday games
  • Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. Eastern Conference
  • Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Central

Last but not least, here is an inside look at the key, head-to-heads statistics:

  • The Favorite in this rivalry by gomi6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings
  • Cavaliers are 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings
  • Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Golden State

Place those 2018 NBA Championship betting bucks on the Golden State Warriors people!