Golden State at Memphis NBA Betting Analysis

Posted by Alex Murphy on Monday,May 11, 2015 1:34, EDT in

With Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors down 2-1 heading into their critical Game 4 matchup tonight, only one question needs to be asked about tonight’s clash.

Can the newly-minted league MVP shake off the aggressive Memphis Grizzlies and lead his team to what once looked like a sure NBA betting lines lock appearance in the Western Conference Finals?

Hmm…let’s find out.

Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies NBA Betting Analysis

When: 9:30 PM ET, Monday, May 11, 2015
Where: FedExForum, Memphis, Tennessee
TV: TNT
NBA Odds: Memphis +4
Over/Under: 196

 


 

Analysis

The Splash Brothers are as dry as the Mojave Desert and the Golden State Warriors’ up-tempo offense has been slowed to a crawl against the defensive-minded Memphis Grizzlies.

Memphis was in full control again in Game 3 as they won 99-89 to take a 2-1 series lead. Led by shooting guard Tony Allen and backcourt mate Mike Conley, the Grizzlies have held the Warriors to just 89.5 points per game in winning each of the last two games.

The Warriors shot a dismal 6-of-26 shooting from 3-point range in Game 3 while Curry and Klay Thompson combining to go 3-of-16 from downtown. Allen promised that he and his Memphis teammates will employ the same game plan for Game 4.

“Why would we change anything? I don’t think we should change nothing,” Allen told reporters. “We need to play how we’ve been playing, the way that got us this notoriety – the reason why all these cameras are in my face now.”

Curry has been ice-cold from beyond the arc over the last two games, shooting an uncharacteristic 4-of-21 from 3-point distance.

“I hold myself to a high standard and I haven’t reached it yet,” Curry told reporters. “So looking forward to the challenge of getting that level in Game 4, setting the tone and it could be a different outcome.”

For his part, Klay Thompson had his best game of the series with 20 points and eight rebounds in Game 3 but missed three of four free throws late, including a pair that really hurt the Warriors comeback chances.

“This is kind of our moment of truth,” Warriors coach Steve Kerr told reporters. “You have to learn in the postseason.”

Power forward Zach Randolph and center Marc Gasol combined to score 43 points and grab 23 rebounds in Game 3. Randolph has three consecutive 20-point games after not getting one in the first round against Portland.

“We might not play great or we might not make the shot or we might make mistakes or we might get really slow,” Gasol told reporters. “But we’re going to stay in the moment.”

Prediction

Before this series started, I admittedly didn’t think it was possible that the Memphis Grizzlies could keep up with the high-scoring ways of the Golden State Warriors, but clearly, forgot how formidable the Grizzlies could be defensively.

Now, three games into their Western Conference semifinal showdown against the Warriors I see things a lot differently. Now, I’m wondering if the Warriors can force an up-tempo style on the Grizzlies that would potentially allow them to get a double-digit lead. Or, is it more likely that Memphis continues forcing Curry, Thompson and the rest of the Warriors into tightly-contested shot attempts?

I’m going with the latter. I don’t see that there’s any way that Memphis fails to cover tonight’s spread as a stunning home underdog against a Warriors team they’ve clearly smacked around like a rag doll the last two games.

The desperate Warriors are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a winning SU record while also going 1-4 ATS in their last five road games and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

The Grizzlies are a nearly unblemished 5-0-1 ATS in their last six home games and a blistering 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

With Curry and company going just 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings, I say the Memphis Grizzlies cover the spread – again!

The Pick: Memphis Grizzlies +4.5 Points

Sources
ESPN.com (http://espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=400792890)
NBA.com (http://www.nba.com/playerfile/zach_randolph/)