To be considered an NBA dynasty, you pretty much have to at least win back-to-back titles. The Golden State Warriors have been amazing the past three years but haven’t repeated. And if they lost Game 6 of the West Finals at home to Houston on Saturday, the Dubs season will end short of the NBA Finals for the first time since 2014. However, according to the latest NBA Odds, Golden State is a solid betting favorite.
How to Bet Rockets at Warriors NBA Odds & Prediction
Draymond is not giving up. pic.twitter.com/laS2fEiYG4
— ESPN (@espn) 25 de mayo de 2018
- When: Saturday, May 26th, 9 PM ET
- Where: Oracle Arena, Oakland
- TV: TNT
- Stream: TNT App
- Radio: Tunein.com
- NBA Odds: Golden State Warriors -10.5 (Over/Under at 213.5)
Why Consider the NBA Odds for the Rockets?
The Rockets have to be brimming with confidence following back-to-back close wins in this series – the first time since the 2016 NBA Finals that the Warriors have lost back-to-back playoff games. Of course, that’s the last time they lost a series.
What made Houston’s 98-94 home win Thursday so surprising was that superstar James Harden frankly was awful offensively. Harden was just 5-of-21 from the field for 19 points with three rebounds, four assists, two steals and six turnovers in 39 minutes. The likely NBA MVP was 0-for-11 from deep and now has missed 20 treys in a row and is 0-for-11 tied him with John Starks in 1994 for most 3-point attempts without a make in a playoff game.
Harden’s 20 straight long-range misses are the longest streak of his career (regular season or playoffs). It is the longest streak by any player in the playoffs since Robert Horry missed 24 straight in 2003. Harden is going to have to play better in the rest of this series because of Chris Paul (hamstring) likely being limited or out for Game 6.
Paul hurt his hamstring late in the fourth quarter on Thursday and did not return – you know it had to be serious because Paul missed a final couple of crucial possessions and didn’t even run down the court on defense after the injury. He got lucky the Warriors missed an open three-pointer with a 5-on-4. Paul was grabbing his right hammy after he fell down, but he had a wrap over his left hammy on the bench. His left hamstring was the bad one this season. Paul had a great game, finishing with 20 points, seven rebounds, six assists, three steals and four 3-pointers.
What if CP3 sits out?
As of this writing, we don’t know if Paul will play Saturday. I’d consider it a surprise – maybe Houston rests him to ensure he’s closer to 100 percent for a likely Game 7 back in Houston. Coach Mike D’Antoni said he’s “worried” about Paul playing in Game 6. The only good news is that it’s not the left hamstring that forced Paul to miss a game this season.
If Paul sits, Eric Gordon likely moves into the starting five. Perhaps the biggest reason the Rockets took Game 5 was Gordon, who scored 24 points with four rebounds, one assist, two steals, one block and three 3-pointers in 36 minutes. He made some big plays on both ends late. Gordon starting would weaken what is already a very short bench.
P.J. Tucker scored eight points with nine rebounds and two 3-pointers in 42 minutes on Thursday. He was the key piece on defense with strong play on the perimeter and around the basket. Tucker will be looking at heavy minutes again and may be counted on more offensively if Paul sits Game 6.
Why Consider the NBA Odds for the Warriors?
The Warriors trail in a playoff series (that is not over) for the fourth time under Steve Kerr. Golden State won the previous three, most recently the 2016 West Finals vs. Oklahoma City. Needless to say, if Paul sits then the Warriors’ chances of winning greatly improve. This line wouldn’t be so big if oddsmakers expected Paul to play.
One issue so far has been the Warriors are not moving the ball as much in the West Finals. They are averaging 78 fewer passes per game than last round and 59 fewer than the regular season. Golden State had just 18 assists in Game 5 after averaging 29.3 in the regular season. Besides that, turnovers were costly with 16, including a team-high six from Draymond Green. He turned it over in the final seconds with a chance to tie or win the game.
In the Game 5 loss, Kevin Durant scored 29 points with four rebounds, one block, and three 3-pointers in 40 minutes. Durant was struggling to get good shots late. Durant has struggled in the fourth quarter the past two games, combining for only one field goal. The bulk of his offensive touches have come in the post area, and Houston has done a great job of suffocating him there.
Stephen Curry scored 22 points with seven rebounds, six assists, four steals and two 3-pointers in 41 minutes. It took eight minutes of game action for Curry to get his first shot from the field. Klay Thompson scored 23 points with four rebounds, one assist, and four 3-pointers in 43 minutes.
What about Iguodala?
Will the Warriors have Andre Iguodala for Game 6? He has missed the past two with a leg injury and was ruled out before warmups of Game 5, which doesn’t bode well for Game 6. Kevon Looney started in Iggy’s place again on Thursday. Looney scored four points with three rebounds, two assists, and one steal in 22 minutes but the Rockets basically leave him alone offensively.
“I feel great about where we are right now,” Warriors coach Steve Kerr said after Game 5. “That may sound crazy, but I feel it. I know exactly what I’m seeing out there.”
Latest NBA Betting Trends
- Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games
- Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games
- Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings
This all depends on Paul/Iguodala. I don’t think either will play but am surer on Paul. That’s a lot of points to give but do so if Paul sits. Game 7 will be Monday. No reason not to bet under the total again.