Warriors vs Lakers NBA

Warriors vs Lakers NBA Play-In Tournament | NBA Betting Analysis

Written by on May 19, 2021

No question that the marquee game of the NBA’s play-in tournament is Wednesday night’s matchup between Steph Curry and the eighth-seeded Golden State Warriors and LeBron James and the No. 7 Lakers from Los Angeles. The winner automatically earns the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference playoffs and L.A. is solidly favored on the NBA odds.

How to Bet Warriors at Lakers NBA Odds & TV Info

  • When: Wednesday, 10 PM ET
  • Where: Staples Center
  • TV: ESPN
  • Stream: ESPN app
  • Radio:com
  • NBA Odds: Lakers -4.5 (total 219.5)

Season Series

The Lakers won two of three. The teams last played March 15 in San Francisco and the Lakers cruised to a 128-97 victory. LeBron James had a triple-double with 22 points, 11 assists and 10 rebounds, while Montrezl Harrell had 27 points off the bench on 11-of-14 shooting. Los Angeles played without Marc Gasol, Kostas Antetokounmpo (health and safety protocols), Anthony Davis (strained right calf), Jared Dudley (torn MCL in right knee) and Alex Caruso. Stephen Curry scored 27 points with four 3-pointers in the loss.

The Lakers and Warriors have met 426 times in the regular season, where L.A. holds a 257-169 advantage. In the Los Angeles era, the Lakers are 206-129 against the Warriors.

Why Bet on LA Lakers? | NBA Betting Analysis

While L.A. finished the regular season on a five-game winning streak — with LeBron James averaging 24.5 points on 50% shooting, 7 assists, 4 rebounds and 1.5 steals in his past two games, after he missed 26 of the Lakers’ previous 28 games with a high right ankle sprain — James’ teams had never entered the playoffs seeded lower than No. 4 in his previous 14 appearances.

L.A. finished the regular season with a 19-2 record when holding its opponent to less than 100 points. The Lakers led the league in points allowed per 100 possessions for the first time in 21 years (since the 1999-00 seasons). It was the first LeBron James team to rank first defensively. L.A. allowed a league-low 1.04 points per possession in transition, down from 1.10 (13th) last season.

The team was 19-8 with both LeBron and Anthony Davis playing and outscored their opponents by 11.2 points per 100 possessions with both on the floor, better than their mark of +8.0 (in more than twice as many minutes) last season.

The Lakers’ 3-point shooting has been unreliable this season. Ranked just 25th in 3s made per game and 21st in team 3-point percentage, L.A. has been pedestrian when its shots aren’t falling, going 12-11 when the team makes fewer than 10 3-pointers. When the team has a rhythm from the outside, it performs far better — 30-19 when connecting on 10 3-pointers or more.

The past nine times LeBron was in the postseason, his team made it to the NBA Finals. On the other hand, he has never missed as many games in a season as he has this campaign and is 36. The last time James and Steph Curry met in a winner-take-all scenario — Game 7 of the 2016 NBA Finals — 30.8 million viewers tuned in.

The Lakers are permitted to allow 11% capacity at Staples Center. The 1995 Houston Rockets were the lowest-seeded team in league history to win it all, entering the postseason in the No. 6 spot.

Why Bet on Golden State? | NBA Betting Analysis

Steph Curry won his second career NBA scoring title, finishing at a career-best 31.8 points per game and joining Michael Jordan as the only players in NBA history to win a scoring title at age 33 or older. Curry, 33, also joined Jordan, Wilt Chamberlain and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar as the only players with multiple scoring titles, MVPs and championships. Curry’s previous career best of 30.1 points per game came in 2015-16, when he also became the first unanimous MVP in league history and won his other scoring title.

The Warriors were the league’s most improved team, both in regard to winning percentage (+0.311) and point differential per 100 possessions (+9.7). They saw the league’s fourth biggest jump in pace, from 101.0 possessions per 48 minutes (15th) last season to 102.8 (third) this season. Ranked last in time of possession (19.5 minutes per game).

Golden State had the league’s biggest home-road differential, both for winning percentage (25-11 at home, 14-22 on the road) and for point differential per 100 possessions (+5.1 at home, -3.0 on the road).

Draymond Green leads the NBA in field goal percentage allowed at the rim this season (minimum 200 field goals defended). Plus, he has assisted to Curry 194 times, including on 110 3-pointers, the most of any passer-scorer combination.

The starting lineup of Andrew Wiggins, Green, Kevan Looney, Kent Bazemore and Curry has been used in nine of the last 10 games and is 11-5 this season (second-most used starting lineup this season).

Former starter Kelly Oubre Jr. will be re-evaluated in 7 days. Oubre has a torn ligament and avulsion fracture in his left wrist, though he’s not expected to need surgery. He’s yet to begin on-court activities and it’s unclear if or when he might return this postseason. Bazemore, Jordan Poole and Mychal Mulder have picked up the slack in his absence.

Warriors assistant coach Mike Brown was the head coach of the Lakers during the 2011-12 and 2012-13 seasons. Brown coached Lakers forward LeBron James for five seasons (2005-06 – 2009-10) with the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Expert Prediction

  • Lakers 112, Warriors 107

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