Warriors at Rockets Game 5 NBA Odds & Betting Preview

Posted by Jordan Walters on Thursday,May 24, 2018 9:13, EDT in

Wow, who saw that coming? The Golden State Warriors never – NEVER – blow a double-digit fourth-quarter lead at home but that’s exactly what they did Tuesday night in a truly stunning loss to the Rockets in the Western Conference Finals. The series heads back to Houston on Thursday tied 2-2 with the Warriors as very slight NBA odds favorites.

2018 Playoffs Preview: Warriors at Rockets NBA Odds & Game Info

When: Thursday, 9 PM ET
Where: Toyota Center, Houston
TV: TNT
Stream: Watch NBA
Radio: 95.7 FM (Golden State) / 790 AM (Houston)
NBA Odds: Warriors -1 (219.5)

Why Bet on Houston?

The Rockets have to be feeling confident with home-court advantage back following the 95-92 shocker on Tuesday. It was Houston’s first-ever playoff win at Golden State and ended the Warriors’ 16-game home playoff win was snapped, which was the longest in NBA history.

The Rockets shook off a 41-point embarrassment in Game 3, a 12-0 deficit to start Tuesday and another big run by the Warriors in the third, then won it with defense down the stretch.

Chris Paul hit a huge late 3-pointer and finished with 27 points, two rebounds, four assists, a steal and five 3-pointers. Paul helped the Rockets go on a 25-12 run to end the game. After Steph Curry led the Warriors to a 34-17 rout in the third quarter it looked like this game, and series, were over, but the Rockets pulled off a miracle.

Paul also had two of his four assists during the 24-9 run that gave the Rockets the lead for good, capping it with a feed to Eric Gordon for a 3-pointer that put Houston up five with 2:27 to play. Paul had been dealing with pain in his right foot since Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals, but he doesn’t plan on taking any time off.

What Does Chris Paul Have to Say of His Small Injury?

“It’s about as good as it’s going to be right now,” Paul said. “But for us, it’s not about that. It’s about going out there and getting stops and making big plays when we needed to.”

James Harden led the Rockets with 30 points in the win. He had 3 steals and 2 blocks, marking his third game with multiple steals and blocks this postseason (4 prior in playoff career). Harden played 43 minutes in Game 4, marking just his 2nd with more than 38 these playoffs (38.7 mpg first five postseasons with Houston).

PJ Tucker 44 minutes in Game 4 after only logging more than 38 minutes once prior as a Rocket. He had 16 rebounds, marking the second-highest total of his career (regular season or playoffs). Clint Capela had 13 rebounds in 24 minutes of play and is on pace to become first player to have averaged at least 13.0 ppg, 11.0 rpg and 2.00 bpg in fewer than 31.0 mpg in a single postseason since blocks became a statistic in 1973-74.

Why Bet on Golden State?

Are the Warriors a safe bet in Game 5?

Golden State got the ball with 1:27 to play down 94-91 in Game 4 and Klay Thompson and Steph Curry each missed contested 3-pointers. The Warriors got another chance with 42.5 seconds left following Houston’s shot-clock violation. Curry missed a driving layup and Draymond Green pulled down the offensive rebound and was fouled by Chris Paul, but Green converted only one free throw.

The Warriors were outscored 25-12 in the fourth quarter. Those 12 points in the fourth are tied for their fewest in a playoff game in the shot clock era. It was the first time in the Steve Kerr era (regular season or playoffs), that the Warriors outscored their opponent by 15+ points in the 3rd quarter and lost.  They were 51-0 entering when outscoring an opponent by 15+ points in the 3rd quarter.

The Warriors went 3-for-18 from the field in the 4th quarter (16.7%), their worst shooting quarter this season. In addition to the bad shooting, the Warriors had some mental lapses with the game on the line. For example, they didn’t call time out to stop a broken play during a critical late-game possession.

How Well Was Curry in Game 4?

Curry took over in the third quarter when the Warriors went on a 34-17 run to take control of Game 4. He  finished with 28 points, six rebounds, two assists, two steals and six 3-pointers on 10-of-26 shooting in 39 minutes. Curry also got a last-second opportunity after Chris Paul made a free throw with 0.5 seconds left on the clock but couldn’t get it to go down. In the last two games, Curry scored a total of 35 points in the 3rd quarter. He scored 28 in the other 6 quarters.

Kevin Durant had 27 points, 12 rebounds, three assists and a 3-pointer on 9-of-24 shooting in 43 minutes. With the Warriors only down two points in the final 10 seconds, and with a timeout remaining, Durant had the ball and could have worked his way to the basket, or at least found an open man, but chose to pass the ball to Thompson, who threw up a bad shot in traffic. Since Durant joined the Warriors, they are 2-2 in playoff games vs the Rockets and 17-2 against all other opponents.

Thompson played through his sore left knee but was a bit gimpy on his way to just 10 points on 4-of-13 shooting with two 3-pointers and that missed late shot. The Warriors played without Andre Iguodala in Game 4 with a knee injury but it’s likely he returns for Game 5.

Latest NBA Betting Trends

  • Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
  • Golden State is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Golden State’s last 7 games
  • Rockets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
  • Houston is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston’s last 7 games

Expert NBA Betting Prediction

The Warriors just don’t play poorly in back-to-back games and should have Iguodala back. Take Golden State.