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NCAAB Betting Notes: Virginia vs. North Carolina State

Written by on February 10, 2015

For a while, it looked as though the Virginia Cavaliers (21-1, 9-1) were going to run away with the ACC Conference, whilst also pushing Kentucky all the way from the number 1 ranking in the nation. Both of those outcomes have been cast into doubt with a loss to Duke, which leaves Virginia with the Blue Devils and Notre Dame now breathing down their neck in conference play.

Date: February 11th, 2015 8:00PM
Venue: PNC Arena, Raleigh, North Carolina
Spread: Virginia -7

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Game Preview and NCAA Betting Analysis

In fairness to Virginia, they have bounced back very well from that loss to Duke, knocking off a pair of ranked teams in the two games following the defeat. They started out with a 75-64 win over North Carolina, and then followed that up with a 52-47 win over Louisville, a team that they are going to have to face one more time before the season ends. 7 of their final 8 games in the regular season are against unranked opposition, so they really have no excuses if they cannot hold on to the top spot in the ACC. The next game for the Cavaliers comes on Wednesday night on the road to North Carolina State. Strangely enough, the Wolfpack have a better points per game average than the Cavaliers, but they are still going to have to find a way to break down the #1 ranked defense in the country if they want to keep things respectable.

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To say that it has been a bit of a rough stretch for North Carolina State (14-10, 5-6) in recent weeks is putting things a little too mildly. They have lost 4 of their last 5 and 6 of their last 10 games, and have been leaking points in the process. This is a team, led by Trevor Lacey and his 16.7 PPG, that can put points on the board, but their problem has been matching that output on the defensive side of the ball. The Wolfpack are allowing 66.7 PPG, which is in stark contrast to the 50.7 PPG that the Cavaliers are giving up to this point in the season.

Key Betting Trends

Louisville is 6-11-1 ATS in its last 18 games
Louisville is 19-3 SU in its last 22 games
Louisville is 14-7 ATS in its last 21 games on the road
Louisville is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
North Carolina State is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
North Carolina State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
North Carolina State is 2-2-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
North Carolina State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road

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Consider This Before Placing Your Bet

These two teams met in Virginia back in the early part of January, and it was the Cavaliers who rolled to a 61-51 win. That was a game where the Cavaliers were admittedly sloppy on offense, but as has so often been the case this season, the defense just slammed the door shut to lead the team to the win. I expect a much better effort from Virginia on Wednesday night, and expect them to win by a similar margin, and likely even more than the last meeting.