Missouri State Bears vs. Valparaiso Crusaders: 3/5/2021 Matchup Betting Preview, Predictions, Computer Picks, Odds and Trends

Written by on March 5, 2021

A game after he scored 22 points in a 72-63 loss to Evansville, Isiaih Mosley leads the Missouri State Bears (16-6) at home against the Valparaiso Crusaders (10-17) as 7.5-point favorites. The matchup, which tips at 9:00 PM ET on Friday, March 5, 2021, airs on ESPN+. The matchup’s over/under is set at 133.5.

Betting Information

Missouri State vs Valparaiso Betting Information
Favorite Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline
Missouri State -7.5 -110 -110 133.5 -113 -108 -359 280

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Total Facts

  • The Bears and their opponents have recorded more than 133.5 points in 72.7% of their outings this year (16 of 22 opportunities).
  • In 11 of 27 opportunities (40.7%) this season, Valparaiso and its opponents have combined to score at least 133.5 points.
  • These teams average a combined 139.4 points per game, 5.9 more points than the over/under of 133.5 set for this game.
  • Opponents of these teams have averaged a combined 134.7 points per game, 1.2 more than the point total in this game.
  • The average point total for Bears games this year is 7.2 more points than the over/under of 133.5 in this matchup.
  • Crusaders games this year have averaged an over/under of 133.4 points, 0.1 fewer than the point total in this matchup.

Scoring Betting Tips

  • The 74 points per game the Bears average are six more points than the Crusaders give up (68).
  • Missouri State is 11-0-1 against the spread and 15-2 overall when scoring more than 68 points.
  • Valparaiso has recorded a 2-7-1 record against the spread and a 1-9 record overall in games when it allows more than 74 points.
  • The Crusaders score an average of 65.4 points per game, only 1.3 fewer points than the 66.7 the Bears allow.
  • Valparaiso has put together a 9-5 overall record and an 8-0-1 ATS record in games it scores more than 66.7 points.
  • Missouri State’s record is 8-6 overall and 6-7-1 against the spread when it allows more than 65.4 points to its opponents.
  • The Bears have put up a total of 159 more points than their opponents this year (an average of 7.3 per game), while the Crusaders have been out-scored by opponents on average this year (by 70 total points, -2.6 per game).

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Missouri State Betting Information

  • The Bears have been solid against the spread this season, earning a 12-7-1 record.
  • The Bears fare well when favored by at least 7.5 points, posting a 3-1 record against the spread.
  • Missouri State and its opponents have converted the over just 9 times in 20 (45%) games this season.

Valparaiso Betting Information

  • Valparaiso has a losing record against the spread, going 10-13-1 ATS (covering only 41.7% of the time).
  • The Crusaders have fared well as a 7.5-point underdog, going 1-0 against the spread when they are at least 7.5-point underdogs.
  • Valparaiso has combined with its opponents to hit the over in 25% of matchups this season (6 out of 24 chances).

Head to Head

Missouri State vs Valparaiso (Last 7 Games)
Date Favorite Spread Total Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Game Type Result
1/10/2021 Missouri State -3.5 143 -175 +140 Regular Season 78-68 MSRST
1/9/2021 Missouri State -3 143.5 -159 +132 Regular Season 81-68 MSRST
3/7/2020 Missouri State -2.5 139.5 -145 +119 Conference Tournament 89-82 VALP
2/25/2020 Valparaiso -1 142 -115 -107 Regular Season 89-74 VALP
1/23/2020 Missouri State -4 140.5 -187 +153 Regular Season 67-60 MSRST
1/29/2019 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Regular Season 55-54 MSRST
1/5/2019 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Regular Season 82-66 VALP

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Missouri State Leaders

  • Mosley leads the Bears in scoring, tallying 20.0 points per game to go with 6.1 rebounds and 3.3 assists.
  • Gaige Prim is Missouri State’s leading rebounder, grabbing 9.0 per game, while Demarcus Sharp is its best passer, averaging 3.3 assists in each contest.
  • Ja’Monta Black makes more threes per game than any other member of the Bears, knocking down shots from beyond the arc at a clip of 2.4 per contest.
  • Prim is the Bears leader in steals and blocks, racking up 1.2 steals and 1.1 blocks per game.

Valparaiso Leaders

  • Ben Krikke is at the top of the Crusaders scoring leaderboard with 12.3 points per game. He also collects 4.2 rebounds and racks up 1.0 assist per game.
  • Valparaiso’s leader in rebounds is Donovan Clay with 5.5 per game, and its leader in assists is Daniel Sackey with 3.5 per game.
  • Connor Barrett provides the most three-point shooting production for the Crusaders. He knocks down 1.7 threes per game.
  • Sackey (1.3 steals per game) is the steal leader for Valparaiso while Clay (1.3 blocks per game) is the block leader.
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