NC State vs #15 Virginia Road to March Madness

NC State vs #15 Virginia Road to March Madness | 2021 NCAA Basketball Expert Analysis

Written by on February 23, 2021

Virginia had been in control of its destiny to win the ACC regular-season title but had a rough last week. The No. 15 Cavs will be sizable home favorites on Wednesday against NC State. UVA is +2800 to win the national title.

How to Bet NC State at Virginia NCAA Basketball Odds & TV Info

  • When: Wednesday, 6:30 PM ET
  • Where: John Paul Jones Arena
  • TV: ACC Network
  • Stream: ESPN app
  • Radio:com
  • Opening NCAAB Lines: TBA (Virginia will be favored)

Last Meeting

On Feb. 3 at NC State, the Cavaliers won 64-57. Sam Hauser and Trey Murphy III each scored 18 points to lead UVA. Jericole Hellems poured in 23 points before fouling out for N.C. State. Hellems’ jumper gave the Wolfpack a 46-45 lead with less than 6 1/2 minutes remaining as Virginia endured an eight-minute span without a field goal. Hauser hit a 3-pointer to break the drought, allowing the Cavaliers to build a 50-46 edge with 5:38 to play. Jay Huff converted a three-point play to stretch the lead to 55-48. All of Virginia’s scoring came from its starters.

Virginia has won nine of its past 10 games against NC State.

Why Bet on NC State? | 2021 NCAA Basketball Expert Analysis

The Wolfpack (10-9) have work to do to get into the NCAA Tournament, but they won a second in a row Saturday, 80-62 at Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons hit seven triples for the 11th-straight game, but could not overcome the Wolfpack’s hot shooting as they tallied hit 50 percent of their shots.Wake Forest went into the intermission trailing the Wolfpack, 51-35. The second half began with NC State continuing their hot shooting. The Wolfpack extended their lead to 19 with 13:40 remaining in regulation.

“They enforced their will on us both offensively and defensively and they dominated the game from the 15-minute mark to the end,” Wake coach Steve Forbes said.

Dereon Seabron had a career-day as the redshirt freshman posted career-highs in points (14), rebounds (9) and steals (4) while also tying his career-high in assists with three. He was one of five Pack players to make it into double figures in scoring.

It marked the third consecutive ACC road win for NC State. It’s the first time since the last two road games of the 2002-03 season and first road game of 2003-04 season that NC State has won three straight ACC road games. The last time, NC State had won three straight ACC road games in the same season was the 2001-02 season. The Pack forced Wake Forest into 19 turnovers and ended the game with a 28-5 in points off turnovers.

In the Pack’s nine wins this season, NC State is combining to shoot 51.2% from the field and hold its opponents to 42.9% shooting. In its eight losses, the numbers are nearly reversed. The Pack is shooting 42.9% when it loses and its opponents are shooting 50%.

Sophomore forward Manny Bates is shooting 66.7% from the field in ACC-only games. The field goal percentage is the best mark in the league (minimum 4 made FGs/game).

Why Bet on Virginia? | 2021 NCAA Basketball Expert Analysis

Virginia (15-5) lost its grip on the ACC title race last week, getting pummeled by Florida State on Monday and then falling in the final minute at Duke on Saturday, 66-65 Late in the game against the Blue Devils, the Cavaliers’ lack of a go-to guy who could create his own shot in end-clock or end-game situations was evident. Virginia’s defense also struggled this past week, allowing 147 points on 123 possessions over the two games. Florida State shot 54.2% from 3; Duke 60.7% from 2.

Freshman Jaemyn Brakefield scored the go-ahead basket on a reverse layup with 1:58 left and Duke came up with a final-possession stop for the upset. Amazingly, five of the last seven games in the Duke-Virginia series have been one or two-point games.

UVA, efficient offensively for most of the game, went scoreless in the final three minutes and dropped into second place in the ACC behind No. 16 Florida State. With 3:10 to play, Jay Huff hit both ends of a one-and-one to push the Cavaliers’ lead to 65-62. Virginia had four more possessions. None was productive. The Cavaliers have lost consecutive games for the first time this season, their 12th time ever under Coach Tony Bennett.

Huff led UVA with 20 points and 12 rebounds for his second double-double of the season. Sam Hauser added 19 points and eight boards and Kihei Clark had 15 points. Virginia shot 50 percent from the floor and 45.5 percent from three, while Duke shot 51 percent and 39.1 percent beyond the arc. UVA led 34-24 in points in the pain, but Duke had 14 fast break points to two for the Cavaliers.

Bennett says Tomas Woldetensae will be unavailable Wednesday due to contact tracing protocols. The senior doesn’t play a ton, averaging 4.5 points and 1.3 assists.

Virginia has lost 10 ACC games the last three seasons in addition to one conference tournament loss, which came in 2018-19. Of those 11 losses to conference foes, six have come to Florida State and Duke. The Seminoles and Blue Devils are the only ACC teams to beat UVA multiple times over the last three seasons, and they’ve both done it three times.

Expert Prediction

  • Virginia 68, NC State 61

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