If you like to ‘ensure’ that you’re getting the most favorable March Madness odds possible by making value-packed teaser picks, then you’re in for a Tahitian Treat – and if you don’t know what that is…it’s okay…it’s just the world’s best-tasting soda. Anyway, enough about my culinary tastes, let’s get down to the business at hand. The following quartet of Sweet 16 teaser picks are my top four games on the board that you should pair together as part of your Sweet 16 teaser selections.
Sweet 16 Teasers Picks That Will Make Your Day
No. 4 Iowa State vs. No. 1 Virginia
When: 7:10 PM ET, Friday, March 25, 2016
Where: United Center, Chicago, Illinois
Line: Virginia -5.5
Total: Over/Under: 141
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Analysis: I really like No. 1 Virginia (28-7 SU, 18-14 ATS), but in order to ensure they cover the spread against high-scoring Iowa State (23-11 SU, 17-13 ATS), I say give them some points as part of your Sweet 16 teaser picks, making them a much more manageable favorite between a half-point and 1.5 points, depending on the odds you get.
Virginia plays the same kind of game every time they take the floor, no matter who their opponent may be. The Cavaliers play some seriously hard core defense in allowing just 59.5 points per game and they score just enough with All-American guard Malcolm Brogdon (18.6 ppg) and two other players that also average double-digits in scoring. I know the Cyclones have a legitimate superstar in All-American forward Georges Niang and a whopping five other players that all average at least 10.9 points per game and I don’t expect them to go away quietly.
However, I do expect the cavaliers to dispatch them with their stupendous defense, even if it is something of a nail-biter. Virginia is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games, but Iowa State has gone 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 5-1 ATS in their last half-dozen neutral site games and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 NCAA Tournament games.
Tease the Virginia Cavaliers in this one people!
The Pick: Virginia -1.5
No. 11 Gonzaga vs. No. 10 Syracuse
When: 9:40 PM ET, Friday, March 25, 2016
Where: United Center, Chicago, Illinois
Line: Gonzaga -5.5
Total: 134.5
Live Streaming: March Madness Live
Analysis: Syracuse (21-13 SU, 18-15 ATS) has looked fantastic in holding Dayton to just 51 points and Middle Tennessee to just 50 points the last time out, but the Orange are going down against a Gonzaga (28-7 SU, 17-15 ATS) team that is much better than the Orange offensively and nearly their equal defensively.
The Bulldogs absolutely pounded red-hot Seton Hall by 16 points (68-52) and Utah by 13 points (82-59) and have two flat-out next-level players in sweet-shooting forward Kyle Wiltjer (20.4 ppg) and center Domantas Sabonis (17.5 ppg) although Syracuse does have a legitimate star of their own in forward Michael Gbinije (17.8 pg).
Gonzaga averages 9.0 points per game more than the Orange, not to mention the Bulldogs are also the better team at defensive rebounding, field goal shooting and free throw shooting. The Orange lost three straight and five of six just before the start of March Madness and likely shouldn’t have even been in the field this year.
The Bulldogs are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an SU win, 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall, 5-0 ATS in their L/5 neutral site games and a nearly pristine 4-1 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games. Tease them down to 1 or 1.5 points and the Dogs cover as a teaser pick!
The Pick: Gonzaga -1.5
No. 5 Indiana vs. No. 1 North Carolina
When: 9:57 PM ET, Friday, March 25, 2016
Where: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Line: North Carolina -5.5
Total: Over/Under: 158.5
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Analysis: After knocking off red-hot, talent-laden Kentucky 73-67 on Saturday, the Indiana Hoosiers (27-5 SU, 19-16 ATS) could do the same to top-seeded North Carolina (30-6 SU, 17-18 ATS) in this contest. Indiana has four double-digit scorers, including team leader Yogi Ferrell (17.1 ppg) and they’ve gotten some stupendous play from center Thomas Bryant through two games (16.0 ppg).
More importantly, they also have an elite head coach in Tom Crean that could and likely will outcoach the overrated Roy Williams. North Carolina has an elite player in forward Brice Johnson (16.8 ppg) and three more players that all average at least 12.0 points per game, but the Tar Heels are also inexperienced and often play like a bunch of middle schoolers suiting up for their first game.
Indiana has the statistical edge in scoring, points allowed, field goal and three-point shooting and steals. The Hoosiers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. North Carolina is just 2-6 ATS in their last eight NCAA Tournament games and 0-4 against Indiana in the last four meetings.
Tease the Hoosier down to a nearly double-digit underdog and they’ll cover.
The Pick: Indiana +9 Points
No. 3 Miami vs. No. 2 Villanova
When: 7:10 PM ET, Thursday, March 24, 2016
Where: KFC Yum! Center, Louisville, Kentucky
Line: Villanova -4.5
Total: Over/Under: 142.5
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Analysis: No. 2 Villanova (31-5 SU, 17-17 ATS) will have its hands full with No. 3 Miami (27-7 SU, 19-13 ATS), but I like the well-balanced Wildcats to come out on top as a teaser pick in this contest. Miami has an elite backcourt with Angel Rodriguez Sheldon McClellan, but the Hurricanes aren’t quite as talented in the frontcourt as Villanova and the Wildcats have their own talented backcourt with guards Josh Hart and Ryan Arcidiacono.
Villanova frontcourt players, Daniel Ochefu, Kris Jenkins and Jalen Brunson should be able to get the better of Miami forward Kamari Murphy and center Tonye Jekiri. The Wildcats are the better statistical team on both sides of the ball and they play fast and loose while Miami likes to play at a much more controlled pace. The Hurricanes are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games while Villanova has gone 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 games against non-conference opponents.
Tease the Wildcats here and the Cats to cover the spread as a super slight favorite.
The Pick: Villanova -.5
