If you’re looking for some betting on Sweet 16 underdog teams that have legitimate chances of both, covering the spread or winning their respective matchups outright, then you should know that at least half of the eight Sweet 16 games that will take place this Thursday and Friday evening all have a great chance of cashing in for the underdog ballclub.
Thanks to the expert betting analysis that you’re about to get, you’re going to find out which four dogs stand the best chances of being let off the leash in their quests to advance to the Elite Eight.
Okay with that said, let’s get started.
Betting on Sweet 16 Underdog Picks
No. 3 Miami vs. No. 2 Villanova
When: 7:10 PM ET, Thursday, March 24, 2016
Where: KFC Yum! Center, Louisville, Kentucky
Line: Villanova -4.5
Total: Over/Under: 142.5
Analysis: No. 3 Miami (27-7 SU, 19-13 ATS) has a great chance of not just covering the spread, but of pulling off the outright upset.
While they don’t get the credit they deserve, Miami has an elite backcourt with point guard Angel Rodriguez (12.6 ppg, 4.4 apg) and shooting guard Sheldon McClellan (16.0 ppg) that can contend with any in the country.
Miami can put the ball in the hole consistently, ranking 27th in the nation in field goal shooting while also finishing a solid 52nd in the country in points allowed (66.7 ppg) The Hurricanes are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games.
Miami is also 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games following a straight up win while the underdog in this series is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Last but not least, Miami has a likely future Hall of Fame head coach in Jim Larranaga that will not be outcoached by Villanova’s (31-5 SU, 17-17 ATS) Jay Wright.
Make no mistake about it, the Miami Hurricanes are a great underdog pick.
The Pick: Miami +4.5 Points
No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Oklahoma
When: 7:37 PM ET, Thursday, March 24, 2016
Where: Honda Center, Anaheim, California
Line: Oklahoma -1.5
Analysis: Texas A&M (28-8 SU, 16-13 ATS) is playing their best basketball of the season at just the right time as they get set to face a very good, but beatable Oklahoma (27-7 SU, 12-20 ATS) squad.
The Aggies have scored an identical 92 points in each of their last two games while winning nine of their last 10 games overall including an impressive 79-77 overtime win over Kentucky on February 20.
The Aggies are huge up front with centers Tyler Davis and Tonny Trocha-Morelos combining to average 18.3 points and 10.5 rebounds per game and they have a very solid backcourt with Danuel House (15.7 ppg) and Jalen Jones (15.4 ppg) being their two leading scorers.
Texas A&M ranked 43rd in the nation in points allowed (66.1 ppg) while also ranking a stellar 39th in defensive field goal percentage (40.5%). The Aggies also ranked 38th in rebounding (39.4 rpg) while winning the battle of the boards by an average of 8.6 rebounds per game.
If the Aggies can keep Oklahoma’s Buddy Hield (25.4 ppg) from going off, they could very well pull off the outright upset win.
Now, check out these key trends.
*Aggies are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. Big 12.
*Aggies are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
* Aggies are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
* Aggies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
* Aggies are 17-8-2 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS loss.
The Pick: Texas A&M +1.5
No. 7 Wisconsin vs. No. 6 Notre Dame
When: 7:27 PM ET, Friday, March 25, 2016
Where: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Line: Notre Dame -1
Analysis: Wisconsin (22-12 SU, 18-16 ATS) may be a slight underdog against Notre Dame (23-11 SU, 15-16 ATS) in their Sweet 16 matchup on Friday night, but I like Wisconsin to get the outright win because of their stupendous 18th ranked defense (63.9 ppg).
Sure, the Badgers average just 68.1 points per game (282nd), but they do have a huge edge in experience in this matchup with several players on their roster having been on last year’s national championship runner-up.
Wisconsin has a trio of heady and experienced players in forward Nigel Hayes (15.9 ppg), guard Bronson Koenig (13.3 ppg) and forward Ethan Happ (12.4 ppg) that I believe will carry them to the outright win in this contest.
Notre Dame is just 2-5 ATS in their L/7 games against a team with a winning SU record, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 NCAA Tournament games and 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
The Badgers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following an SU win, 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall, 5-1 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games and a blistering 10-2 ATS in their last dozen games against a team with a winning straight up record. Wisconsin wins and cashes in.
The Pick: Wisconsin +1
No. 5 Indiana vs. No. 1 North Carolina
When: 9:57 PM ET, Friday, March 25, 2016
Where: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Line: North Carolina -5.5
Total: Over/Under: 158.5
Analysis: The Indiana Hoosiers (27-5 SU, 19-16 ATS) look like a great underdog pick against North Carolina (30-6 SU, 17-18 ATS) after watching them dispatch red-hot, Kentucky 73-67 on Saturday.
Indiana has four double-digit scorers, including point guard Yogi Ferrell (17.1 ppg) and they’ve recently gotten a string of eye-opening performances out of center Thomas Bryant through two games (16.0 ppg).
In addition to that, I think Hoosiers head coach Tom Crean will outcoach the overrated Roy Williams in this matchup.
North Carolina has four players that average at least 12.0 points per game, including Senior forward Brice Johnson (16.8 ppg) but the Tar Heels are often prone to stretches of incompetent play, due mostly to their lack of experience.
The Hoosiers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
North Carolina is just 2-6 ATS in their last eight NCAA Tournament games and 0-4 against Indiana in the last four meetings.
I know the Tar Heels are expected to reach the Final Four at the very least, but Carolina could get upset outright in this contest. At the very least, I like the Hoosiers to keep it close and cover the spread.
The Pick: Indiana +5.5 Points