What are the Odds of Picking a Perfect 2018 March Madness Bracket?

What are the Odds of Picking a Perfect 2018 March Madness Bracket?

Written by on February 22, 2018

If you’re fired up for the quickly approaching 2018 March Madness tournament and you’re looking to gather as much expert information as possible for your NCAAB betting strategy, then you’ve come to the right place. Better yet, if you’re looking to fill out the perfect March Madness bracket and you’d like to know what your chances are of doing just that, then boy, have I got some sobering statistics for you.

What are the Odds of Picking a Perfect 2018 March Madness Bracket?

  • Season: 2017–18
  • Begins: March 13th
  • Ends: April 2nd
  • Teams: 68
  • TV: CBS, TBS, TNT
  • Live Streaming: MM Live
  • Finals Venue: Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas

2018 NCAA Basketball Tournament Betting Predictions, Dates & Locations

A little bit of History

According to the official NCAA web site, last year, one bracket remained perfect through 39 games to open the tournament. In 2014, Brad Binder went 36-for-36 to start the tournament. In 2015 one person in the ESPN online bracket game picked the first 34 games correctly, according to a story by ESPN senior writer Darren Rovell. The current NCAA tournament format has existed since 1985 — and with somewhere between an estimated 60 million to 100 million brackets filled out every year, it’s possible that someone, somewhere has done better than 39 straight games. Still, you should know that the odds of picking a perfect bracket in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament are so small, in fact, that many mathematicians differ on the actual estimation of the odds. Some believe it’s as low as 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 (or 1 in 9.2 quintillions for those who skipped the last 18 digits), while others, including Jeff Bergen, a professor at DePaul, think it’s as “high” as 1 in 128 billion. Either way, picking all 63 games (excluding the First Four games) correctly is next to impossible.

A Really Long-Shot

I’ve come up with a list of odds of some other things happening to you before you fill out a perfect bracket.

Odds of Being Struck By Lightning

  • 1 in 700,000
The odds of becoming a lightning victim in the U.S. in any one year is 1 in 700,000. The odds of being struck in your lifetime is 1 in 3,000. Lightning can kill people (3,696 deaths were recorded in the U.S. between 1959 and 2003) or cause cardiac arrest.

Odds of winning the Powerball

  • one in 292 million
Getting hit by lightning is almost 4 times more likely than winning the lottery. The chances of being fatally struck are 1 in 10 million. You’re also 45 times more likely to die from flesh-eating bacteria than securing the jackpot. The odds are 1 in 1 million.

Odds of being struck by lightning twice

  • 1 in 9 million
Your odds of being struck by lightning twice in your lifetime are 1 in 9 million, which, ironically, is still a higher chance than winning the Powerball.

Odds of making a half-court shot at a halftime competition

  • 1 in 50
We can’t all be Steph Curry, (Well, I kinda shoot like him) but every basketball fan dreams of being called onto the floor for a shot at nailing the now, infamous half-court shot. Despite there's only one Stephen Curry, the Odds of making a half-court shot are better than the ones for you picking a perfect bracket for March Madness.

Odds of finding a four-leaf clover

  • 1 in 10,000
The ultimate sign of luck. Find one of these and your odds of picking a perfect bracket probably go up at least a little bit. (Source: University of Sydney mathematics professor Clio Cresswell).

Odds of bowling a perfect game

  • 1 in 11,500
The odds of an adult male who isn’t a professional bowling a 300 game are 1 in 11,500. If you’re a pro, those odds increase to 1 in 460. And if you have the bumpers up, the odds are even higher. (Source: Gazette Extra).

Odds of making a Double Eagle

  • 1 in 1,000,000
A hole-in-one is a challenge in itself, but a double eagle in golf is even more difficult. A Double eagle is an ace on a Par 4 or two strokes on a Par 5. Odds of playing a hole that well has been stated as high as six million to one. But, in a 2004 interview in Golf World, Dean Knuth, the inventor of the United States Golf Association’s slope rating system, said the figure was closer to one in a million.

Odds of becoming president

  • 1 in 10,000,000
The odds of becoming President used to be 1 in 10,000,000, but as we’ve all come to find out if Donald Trump can win the presidency, there’s literally hope for anyone – or maybe you haven’t seen his latest ill-conceived Tweet!