2017 Las Vegas Bowl Spread & Expert Pick: Boise State vs. Oregon

2017 Las Vegas Bowl Spread & Expert Pick: Boise State vs. Oregon

Written by Eric Williams on Tuesday,December 12, 2017 4:29, EDT

The 25th-ranked Boise State Broncos will look to pull off the upset over the Oregon Ducks when the two teams square off in the 2017 Las Vegas Bowl on Saturday, December 16, 2017, at 3:30 PM ET. Despite winning three more games than their postseason bowl opponents, the Broncos have been installed as decisive Las Vegas Bowl spread underdogs, so now, let’s find out if Boise State can get either, the outright win – or simple the ATS cover.

Broncos (10-3) vs. Ducks (7-5) Las Vegas Bowl Spread & Expert Pick

  • When: Saturday, December 16, 2017, 3:30 PM ET
  • Where: Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
  • TV: ABC
  • Radio: 98.3 FM (Boise State) / 95.3 FM (Oregon)
  • Live Stream: ABC Go
  • Las Vegas Bowl Spread: Oregon Ducks -7.5 (Over/Under at 59.5)

Weather Forecast

  • Clear: 18°C/64°F
  • Humidity: 14%
  • Precipitation: 0%
  • Cloud Cover: 5%
  • Wind: 5 mph N
  • Stadium Type: Open

Top College Football Bowl Picks of the Week – December 12th Edition

Recent Head to Head (Last 2 Games)

  • Record: Boise State Broncos lead 2-0
  • Score: Boise State Broncos 28.00 / Oregon Ducks 20.00
  • Rush Yards: Boise State Broncos 101.00 / Oregon Ducks 129.00
  • Pass Attempts: Boise State Broncos 33.00 / Oregon Ducks 29.50
  • Completion Percentage: Boise State Broncos 65.15 / Oregon Ducks 50.85
  • Passing Yards: Boise State Broncos 291.50 / Oregon Ducks 179.00
  • Total Yards: Boise State Broncos 392.5 / Oregon Ducks 308.00
  • Turnovers: Boise State Broncos 2.50 / Oregon Ducks 3.00

Why Bet on the Boise State Broncos Odds at +7.5?

Wy bet on Boise State? There are several reasons, starting with the fact that the Broncos won more games than the Ducks and come into this contest pretty damned hot!

The Broncos have been on fire won eight of their last nine to close finish the season ranked 25th in the AP poll and hit the postseason playing phenomenal defense having limited seven of their last eight opponents to 19 points or less while holding six of those opponents to 14 points or less.

Just one week after losing on the road to Fresno State, Boise State beat their conference rivals in a rematch 17-14 on Dec. 2 to clinch the Mountain West Conference championship and now they’ll look to cap off their season by taking down Oregon in the Las Vegas Bowl.

Boise State averages a healthy 32.1 points per game this season (38th) while limiting their opponents to just 22.5 points per game defensively (36th). After a slow start, quarterback Brett Rypien has thrown 12 TD passes and just one interception over his last six starts while throwing for at least 246 yards in every game.

“You get five days to spend with your teammates and you get some downtime, you’re in cool venues,” Rypien said.“It’s a lot of fun, but at the same time, you know what you’re down there to do.”

“It’s a good time to get a lot closer to your whole team,” safety Kekoa Nawahine said. “We go to the bowl early, we’re all there together and to be able to share in that is great. And to play a team you don’t normally play in a place you don’t normally play as well.

“All those things together help provide for a pretty fun experience.”

Why Bet on the Oregon Ducks Odds at -7.5?

The best reason to bet on Oregon in the Las Vegas bowl is that they got their act together late in the season following some mid-season struggles.

Oregon won three of their final four games and pounded Oregon State 69-10 in their regular-season finale, but they’ll be playing this affair under the leadership of Co-offensive coordinator Mario Cristobal with Taggart bolting to Florida State.

Still, many of Oregon’s players are happy about Cristobal taking over.

The Las Vegas Bowl Spread favors the Oregon Ducks to win.

“I was upset when coach Taggart left but if he’s chasing his dreams, I can’t blame him,” cornerback Thomas Graham said. “I’m chasing my dreams by playing college football right now and trying to get to the NFL. I’m not leaving, no matter what.”

The Ducks averages a stellar 36.7 points per game this season (18th) but also gave up an overly generous 28.2 points per contest defensively (76th) while allowing six opponents this season to top the 30-point plateau. The Ducks got embarrassed by Washington State (33-10), Stanford (49-7), UCLA (31-14) and Washington (38-3).

Latest Las Vegas Bowl Betting Trends

  • Ducks are 8-16-1 ATS in their last 25 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oregon’s last 7 games
  • Broncos are 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
  • Broncos are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boise State’s last 9 games

Expert Analysis and Prediction

Oregon finished dead last in the nation in total penalties and yards. On average, the Ducks get flagged over nine times per game for an average of 112 yards per pop. They’ve been hit with ten or more penalties seven times. Boise State isn’t great, but it’s only nailed around six times per game.

For me, I’m stunned that Oregon is favored by the Las Vegas Bowl Spread, but that’s only because of the conference Boise State plays in. No matter, for me, the Broncos are the pick to not only cover the chalk in this matchup but do so by winning outright.

Boise State has gone 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up win and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Oregon, on the other hand, is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games, 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight-up win and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win. Simply put, I like Boise State to win and cover the 2017 Las Vegas Bowl spread!

Pick: Boise State Broncos at +7.5