2019 National Championship ATS Betting Pick

2019 National Championship ATS Betting Pick

Written by on January 7, 2019

The college football National Championship Game is now just a matter of days away, with a pair of very familiar teams once again set to lock horns. The Alabama Crimson Tide, who are in the big game for the 4th straight season, will be going head to head with the Clemson Tigers, a team that they have already run into 3 times since the inception of the playoff system 5 years ago. If familiarity does indeed breed contempt, then these two should really not have that much love for one another.

We are looking at breaking down this game in several different ways, including going with an SU pick, as well as looking at all the bets you should play once next Monday night rolls around. For the purposes of this piece, though, we are going to take a closer look at the point spread, while making a prediction on which way to lean. Alabama is in as a 6-point favorite right now, so let’s take a closer look at what these two teams did ATS this season.

2019 National Championship ATS Betting Pick

Why the Alabama Crimson Tide should be your ATS pick?

Over the course of their 14 games this season, the Alabama Crimson Tide put together an 8-6 record against the spread. While that may not seem like a particularly good return for a team that was as dominant as the Tide were during the regular season, you do need to remember that they had some rather lofty point spreads to cover. As anyone who watches college football know, those spreads can come into danger late in games when the better team starts pulling their starters and putting in bench guys in the second half.

That is obviously not something that is going to happen on Monday night, though, so let’s instead just take a closer look inside that 8-6 ATS record. Since the National Championship Game is played at a neutral venue, it’s worth looking at what Alabama did away from home this season, which was to go 3-2 ATS. Again, not an entirely convincing mark and one that falls a good way short of what Clemson delivered in the same scenario.

Why the Clemson Tigers should be your ATS pick?

The Clemson Tigers finished the season with the exact same 8-6 ATS as their opponent this coming Monday, but it is fair to suggest that they may have the edge in one particular area. Where the Tigers struggled to cover the spread this season may come as a bit of a surprise, as it was home games that proved to be a little more problematic.

Clemson is not a safe pick for the 2019 National Championship.

That was not the case in games played away from home, though, as Clemson were a very healthy 5-1 ATS in those 6 games. They are also on a very good streak of form when it comes to the point spread, covering in 7 of their last 9 games overall. This will be the 5th time that these two teams have met, with the spread results split right down the middle at 2-2 in the last 4 meetings.

Latest 2019 National Championship Betting Trends

  • Alabama is 1-1 against the spread versus Clemson over the last 3 seasons
  • Alabama is 58-35 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992
  • Clemson is 6-0 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins this season
  • Clemson is 8-1 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons

Our 2019 National Championship Game ATS Pick

While things in the point spread department would appear to be leaning heavily in the favor of Clemson, I am actually going with Alabama to cover. The closest that anyone has played them this season came in the SEC Championship Game versus Georgia, and even then, the Tide still won by 7 points.