2019 College Football Week 7 ATS Betting Picks

2019 College Football Week 7 ATS Betting Picks

Written by on October 7, 2019

Could the Michigan State Spartans shut down superstar running back Jonathan Taylor to either get the outright road win or ATS cover when they visit Wisconsin for their Week 7 Big Ten battle? Are the Penn State Nittany Lions locks to get the road win and cover against Iowa in another intriguing Big Ten matchup? Last but not least, are the LSU Tigers good enough to cover the chalk as a double-digit home favorite against Florida in their matchup of SEC unbeatens? We take a look at the top picks to bet against the spread for College Football Week 7.

2019 College Football Week 7 ATS Betting Picks

No. 23 Michigan State (4-2) at No. 9 Wisconsin (5-0)

Michigan State saw their modest two-game winning streak come to an abrupt halt in their humbling 34-10, Week 6 loss against Ohio State. The Spartans are averaging a decent 27.8 points per game (75th) while limiting the opposition to 18.2 points per contest defensively (21st).

Wisconsin moved to 5-0 on the season by routing overmatched Kent State 48-0 this past weekend. The Badgers are putting 43.4 points per game (11th) while limiting the opposition to a mind-boggling 5.8 points per game to lead the nation in fewest points allowed. Wisconsin has also won two of the last three meetings in this rivalry including an emphatic 30-6 blowout road win a year ago. With the way the Badgers are playing on both sides of the ball, I see almost no way that Michigan State gets the upset road win in this Big Ten battle.

Betting Trends

  • Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Wisconsin.
  • Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
  • Over is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.
  • Underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Pick: Wisconsin 31 Michigan State 17

No. 11 Penn State (5-0) at No. 14 Iowa (4-1)

Penn State is off to an excellent start and the Nittany Lions come into this Week 7 Big Ten matchup off a convincing 35-7 smackdown win over Purdue this past weekend. Penn State is putting up a fantastic 47.0 points per game to rank sixth in scoring while ranking an even more impressive second in points allowed (7.4 ppg). Iowa struggled to score and had their four-game winning streak snapped in their 10-3 loss to Michigan on Saturday. The Hawkeyes are averaging 27.4 points per contest (81st) while limiting the opposition to just 8.8 points per game to rank a phenomenal third in points allowed.

Penn State has won five straight against Iowa including a 30-24 home win last season as a 5.5-point favorite. While the Nittany Lions are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, Iowa has gone a polar opposite 4-1 ATS in their last five home dates in this series. Still, with both teams possessing superior defenses in this matchup, give me the Lions and their far more explosive offense.

Betting Trends

  • Nittany Lions are 4-0 ATS in the  last 4 games following a ATS loss.
  • Nittany Lions are 24-7-1 ATS in the last 32 games following a straight up win.
  • The total went UNDER in 7 of Penn State’s last 10 games.
  • Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
  • Hawkeyes are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games on fieldturf.
  • The total went OVER in 6 of Iowa’s last 7 games when playing as the underdog.

Pick: Penn State 24 Iowa 17

No. 7 Florida (6-0) at No. 6 LSU (5-0)

Seventh-ranked Florida remained unbeaten by getting a statement-making 24-13 home win against Auburn on Saturday to cover the chalk as a 2.4-point underdog. The Gators are averaging 32.5 points per game (53rd) while limiting their opponents to just 9.5 points per game defensively (5th). LSU throttled overmatched Utah State 42-6 on Saturday to remain unbeaten and the Tigers are leading the nation in scoring by putting up a stupendous 54.6 points per game while allowing 19.8 points per contest defensively (29th).

While I love the way quarterback Joe Burrow (22 TDs, 3 INTs) is playing in LSU’s clearly revamped and more potent offense,  I’m a bit stunned that the Tigers are double-digit favorites in this matchup. Florida is clearly very good this season and even if the Gators don’t manage to get the outright upset, I believe they’ll easily cover the spread because of their outstanding defense.

Florida has won two of the last three meetings in this SEC showdown including a 27-19 home win a year ago as a 1-point underdog. This time around, the Gators cover again, while pushing the Tigers really hard for the outright win.

  • Gators are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win.
  • Gators are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
  • The total went UNDER in 5 of Florida’s last 6 games.
  • Tigers are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
  • The total went OVER in 7 of Louisiana State’s last 8 games.

Pick: LSU 24 Florida 21

Mississippi State Bulldogs (-6 ½) at Tennessee Volunteers

For a quarter and a half last week, it looked as thought the Tennessee Volunteers might just be able to hang with the Georgia Bulldogs. A couple of TD’s from the Dawgs just before half-time put that to rest, leaving the Volunteers sitting at 1-4 on the season.

They have the same 1-4 record against the spread now, and while they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Mississippi State, this season feels like a big step backwards for the Volunteers. In their last 10 games played in Week 7, the Bulldogs are 9-1 ATS, so a good pick here, I would think.

Betting Trends

  • Mississippi State are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games played in week 7
  • Tennessee are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games played on a Saturday

Maryland Terrapins (-4 ½) at Purdue Boilermakers

The Maryland Terrapins started this season on fire, scoring 142 runs in their opening 2 games. After that, though, the wheels came off, with the Terrapins losing back to back games and managing just 17 runs in those two games. They had a return to form last week, though, beating Rutgers 48-7 and getting their offense back on track.

This week will see them go on the road to face a Purdue Boilermakers that is 1-4 SU and ATS this season. While the Terrapins have not been great against the spread on the road, I think they cover here.

Betting Trends

  • Maryland are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on the road
  • Purdue are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played in week 7

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Indiana Hoosiers (-27 ½)

This season, Rutgers have been a little bit of a whipping boy. After opening the season with a 48-21 win over Massachusetts, the Scarlet Knights have been torn apart on a fairly regular basis, In the 4 losses since winning in Week 1, Rutgers have managed just 23 points, while giving up 160 in 4 games.

They are now just 1-4 ATS in their 5 games this season. The Hoosiers have not been great against the spread this season, but they are a pretty decent bet at home, going 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games at home. I like Indiana to win and cover here.

Betting Trends

  • Rutgers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Indiana
  • Indiana are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games at home

UNLV Rebels at Vanderbilt Commodores (-14 ½)

This is one of those games where the pick looks obvious, yet you get the sense that the spread bet is there for the taking if you go the other way. The UNLV Rebels are 2-3 ATS this season, while the Vanderbilt Commodores are 0-5 ATS through their first 5 games.

The Commodores are also just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played in Week 7. This would seem to point to the Rebels being able to cover, but I am going with Vanderbilt in this one.

Betting Trends

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Nevada-Las Vegas’ last 5 games played in October
  • Vanderbilt are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played in week 7

 

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