2020 Camellia Bowl Expert Analysis - NCAAF Betting

2020 Camellia Bowl Expert Analysis – NCAAF Betting

Written by on December 24, 2020

The Marshall Thundering Herd and Buffalo Bulls will both be looking to cap off their 2020 seasons in style when they square off in the 2020 Camellia Bowl on Christmas Day. After getting off to perfect starts that catapulted both teams into the national Top 25, Marshall and Buffalo enter this matchup coming off of losses that ruined their bigger bowl game hopes.

With both teams looking for the confidence-boosting bowl game win, let’s find out which team is offering the best value against their College Basketball odds.

2020 Camellia Bowl Odds and Pick for Marshall (7-2) Vs Buffalo (5-1)

  • When: Friday, Dec. 25, 2020 at 2:30 PM ET
  • Where: Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, AL
  • NCAAF Odds: Buffalo -5.5
  • Total: 54

Why Bet On Marshall

The Thundering Herd opened the season by winning seven straight to reach No. 15 in the national rankings. Unfortunately, since then, everything has gone wrong. Marshall dropped two straight to finish the regular season. The Thundering Herd lost to Rice 20-0 on Dec. 5 and fell against Alabama-Birmingham 22-13 in its regular season finale on Friday.

One game after throwing a whopping five interceptions against Rice, freshman quarterback Grant Wells passed for 138 yards with two TD tosses and no picks. Unfortunately, Marshall’s second-ranked run defense gave up 216 rushing yards in the loss and  468 total yards in the loss.

“Offensively, we have to play with more confidence,” Thundering Herd coach Doc Holliday said. “We are not making the plays we were making before.”

Marshall averages an impressive 30.6 points per game while limiting the opposition to just 12.6 points per game defensively to lead the country in fewest points allowed.

Trends

  • Thundering Herd are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog.
  • Thundering Herd are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 Friday games.
  • Thundering Herd are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. MAC.
  • Thundering Herd are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in December.

Why Bet On Buffalo

Buffalo was an unblemished 5-0 while heading into last week’s Mid-American Conference title game as a heavy favorite over Ball State. Unfortunately, the Bulls gave up 28 second quarter points after going up 14-1 after one quarter of action. Down, 35-21 at the break, the second half was a defensive battle that saw only 10 combined points put on the scoreboard.

After burning Bowling Green for a jaw-dropping 301 yards and four touchdowns on Nov. 17 and Kent State for an unfathomable 409 rushing yards and eight touchdowns the following week, superstar running back Jaret Patterson was held to 47 yards on 18 carries by Ball State. Patterson also injured his right knee and was limited during the second half.

According to Bulls coach Lance Leipold, Patterson plans to play on Friday.

“We’ll see where it’s at, we’ll have to look at it,” Leipold said. “We’ll have to get to work on it and see where we’re at from an availability standpoint.”

Buffalo averages a stupendous 47.8 points per game to rank third nationally in scoring while limiting the opposition to 23.8 points per contest defensively (36th).

Trends

  • Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
  • Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite.
  • Bulls are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. CUSA.
  • Bulls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Friday games.
  • Bulls are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
  • Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as a favorite.
  • Bulls are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games.

Expert Analysis and Prediction

While Marshall has an elite defense, Buffalo has one of the most explosive offenses in the country. More importantly, the Thundering Herd and young quarterback Grant Wells in particular, have clearly lost their way while scoring a grand total of 13 points over their last two games.

Even in suffering their only loss of the season, Buffalo managed to put 28 points on the scoreboard. While Marshall has gone 7-1 ATS in their last 8 bowl games, the Thundering Herd are also 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss. Buffalo has gone 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss, 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning record and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall. I’m going with Buffalo to win and cover the chalk because of their huge edge on offense.

Pick: Buffalo 31 Marshall 21


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