Texas A&M @ LSU NCAA Football Lines Analysis

Posted by Kenny Bell on Friday,November 27, 2015 4:08, EDT in

Both the LSU Tigers 7-3 and the Texas A&M Aggies 8-3 face off on Saturday in Baton Rouge in an SEC college football betting rivalry matchup that comes with dire bowl implications. The Tigers have lost their last three games in a row, including losses at home to Arkansas and at Ole Miss in the last two weeks after getting knocked by the Crimson Tide in Alabama. So ravaged are the Tigers that even Leonard Fournette is no longer at the top of the Heisman talks, something coach Les Miles will want to change as we head into this season finale. On the other hand, the Aggies have lost two of their last five games, but are looking to end the regular season strongly with a ninth win in the NCAAF odds, which will catapult them to a good bowl game in December. Below is a brief online betting guide for this Saturday showdown.

A Closer Look at the Aggies @ Tigers Game Info, Betting Preview & Analysis

Venue: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
Date: Saturday, November 28, 2015
Time: 7:30 PM ET
TV: SEC Network
NCAAF Lines: Texas A&M Aggies (+5.5) at LSU Tigers (-5.5)

Betting on the LSU Tigers

The Tigers started the 2015 season on fire with seven straight wins and Fournette was a hot favorite for the Heisman, turning in 200-yard games regularly. However, losses to Alabama, Arkansas and road loss at Ole Miss followed, and now the Tigers are looking for any momentum they can find before they head into their bowl game. Most recently, they are coming off a 38-17 loss to Ole Miss where QB Brandon Harris completed 26 of his 51 passes for 324 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. Fournette rushed for 108 yards on 25 carries, while Tyson Johnson finished the game with five receptions for 83 yards with one TD. In order to bounce back, Harris and the Tigers’ offense must play their hearts out against the Aggies, who favorably come with a weak defense that ranks at No. 104 nationally.

The Tigers pass defense has played at another level in the past five games, giving up 240.2 passing yards per game during that span, a key reason they’ve struggled to contain good passers. On the season, the Tigers D-line is giving up 25.7 PPG with 351.7 YPG, and will be facing a tough Texas A&M offense that is averaging 30.3 points and 438.7 yards per game on the year, necessitating a big need for improvement.

Fortunately, LSU not only leads the All-time series against Texas A&M with a 30-19-3 record, but the Tigers have also won the last four straight games in the series, dominating the Aggies in outstanding fashion. Added to the daunting nature of playing at the Tiger Stadium, arguably the most intimidating stadium in the nation, LSU fans can be hopeful of an eighth win to the season.

Betting on the Texas A&M Aggies

Though they are on a 3-2 run in their last five games, the Aggies have won three of their last four games, including the 25-0 shutout win over Vanderbilt last weekend. QB Kyle Allen went 18 of 36 for 336 yards with one touchdown in that win. Tra Carson also chipped in handily with 126 yards on 22 carries, while Josh Reynolds had another big game for the Aggies, totaling three receptions for 105 yards with one TD. These three players will be charged with responsibility of leading the Aggies’ ferocious attack, which will be going against an equally talented LSU defense that boasts of a lethal pass rushing trio in Deion Jones (81 tackles), Kendell Beckwith (70 tackles) and Lewis Neal (7.0 sacks).

Opponents have had fits when facing the Aggies’ eighth-ranked pass defense, which gives up just 168.4 passing yards per game on the year. Also, the defense is allowing just 21.8 points with 370.8 yards per game, something that should allow them to contain or at least hang with the LSU offense that is averaging 31.9 points and 428.2 yards per game.

LSU vs Texas A&M Key Betting Trends

• The Tigers are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games
• The Aggies are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games
• The Tigers are 17-4 SU in their last 21 games at home
• The Aggies are 15-5 SU in their last 20 games on the road
• The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing Texas A&M
• The Aggies are 1-4 SU in their last five games when playing LSU
• The total has gone OVER in five of LSU’s last six games at home
• The total has gone UNDER in four of Texas A&M’s last five games on the road

Texas A&M Aggies at LSU NCAA Football Betting Prediction

This is a tough contest to figure out with the way the two schools have been playing recently. The Tigers have won the last four meetings against the Texas A&M, including 3-0 run against the Aggies since they joined the SEC in 2012. The Aggies have, however, been playing better football in recent weeks, so it’s hard to tell how the skidding Tigers will react against them. All in all, we feel that LSU will explode for a strong home game, especially in running the ball, but the Aggies should be able to use their solid passing game to find spaces in LSU’s passing defense, leading to a narrow road win for the visiting Texas A&M squad in an averagely scoring affair that will keep the game total UNDER.