Biggest NCAA Football Odds Matchups in Week 5

Posted by Daniel Strum on Wednesday,September 30, 2015 2:00, EST in

A Closer Look at the Biggest NCAA Football Odds Matchups in Week 5

#13 Alabama at #8 Georgia (-2)

This is the first time in the last 72 games that the Crimson Tide have not been favorite in the NCAAF Odds lines. The last time Alabama was an underdog was the 2009 SEC Championship Game against the Florida Gators. That tilt saw Alabama win handily, 32-13. This is the first time Alabama has been a road underdog since 2008 – when they played at Georgia. The Bulldogs had Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno. Of course, the Bulldogs made that game a “Blackout,” but they ended up being the ones in the dark, as the Tide were up 31-0 at the half.

So how much has changed since then? Not much. Georgia is a running team, but no one can run against the Crimson Tide. The Bulldogs feature Greyson Lambert at quarterback. He transferred to Georgia from Virginia after losing his starting job…to the quarterback who just got beat at home 56-14 by Boise State. So take the Tide in this game.

#3 Ole Miss at #25 Florida (+7)

FEI has Ole Miss projected to win this matchup by 18 points. This is a disparity of 11 points. If you look at teams that have had that much of a disparity so far this year, they have all covered. Take a look:

  • Ball State was favored over Eastern Michigan by 6. FEI had them winning by 28, a disparity of 22. Ball State won by 11.
  • Kansas State was favored over UT-San Antonio by 17. FEI had them winning by 32, a disparity of 15. KSU won 30-3.
  • Virginia Tech was favored over Purdue by 6. FEI had them winning by 21, a disparity of 15. The Hokies rolled, 51-24.
  • Florida State was favored to beat BC by 8 1/2. The FEI margin was 21, with a disparity of 12 1/2. The Seminoles won 14-0.
  • Boise State was favored to beat Virginia by 2 1/2. The FEI margin was 15, with a disparity of 12 1/2. Boise won 56-14.
  • Stanford was favored to beat Oregon State by 15 1/2, and the FEI margin was 26. This disparity was 10 1/2. Stanford won 42-14.
Follow this trend and take the Rebels to cover.

#21 Mississippi State at #14 Texas A&M (-7)

Mississippi State ranks #3 in the nation in adjusted sack rate, while Texas A&M has had a hard time protecting Kyle Allen, particularly on standard downs. In those situations, the Aggies rank #122 in adjusted sack rate. How do you beat the Bulldogs? Make big plays on passing downs. The Aggies have done that on standard downs (#8 in Isolated Points per Play) but not so much on passing downs (#109). So, the Aggies shouldn’t run away in this one. I like the Aggies to win, but I don’t think it will be more than a touchdown’s difference.

Arizona State at #7 UCLA (-13)

This is a big line, but the Sun Devils did look terrible against USC last week. Could they really be that bad? They have lost to the spread every week, and each game has looked worse. As underdogs, they are only 3-9 since 2012. This is a lot of points, but the Bruins have been tough. Add that to the fact that this game is in LA, and last week saw UCLA spank Arizona…and I like the Bruins here.