College Football Week 5 Free Picks And Projections For Top Underdogs

Posted by Eric Williams on September 28, 2016 in

As sports betting fans everywhere already know, there is nothing like cashing in on a value-packed underdog that can help you boost your annual online betting bankroll in a big way! However, identifying underdogs that are offering ‘real’ value as opposed to ‘fool’s gold’ isn’t nearly as easy as it sounds.

Thankfully, I’ve done all the legwork in identifying a quartet of Week 5 underdogs that are offering a ton of great value this coming weekend. Now, let’s find out who they are.

In Depth Analysis On The College Football Week 5 Free Picks And Projections For Top Underdogs



Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-0) at Penn State Nittany Lions (2-2)

When: Saturday, October 1, 2016 at 3:30 PM
Where: Beaver Stadium
NFL Odds: Penn State Nittany Lions -3

Analysis: Penn State Nittany Lions is favored in this contest but I don’t see why after watching the Nittany Lions’ get blown out by Michigan 49-10 last weekend. Now, heading into this Week 5 Big Ten battle, I believe the Nittany Lions will struggle against a Minnesota team that has looked really solid through three games.

The Gophers might not get a bunch of national recognition, but they clearly have some dangerous talent at the skill positions and a steady quarterback that has thrown only one interception this season. Not only that, but Minnesota plays a sound defensive scheme that could pose problems for Penn State’s mostly young offensive unit.

While the Gophers are just 2-5 SU in their last seven road games, the Gophers are also 17-5 ATS in their last 22 conference games and 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games. Penn State is 2-6 SU in its last eight games, 1-7 ATS in their last eight games and 0-4 ATS in their last four conference games. I like the Minnesota Golden Gophers to cover the spread by winning outright.

My Pick: Minnesota 35 Penn State 31

No. 7 Stanford at No. 10 Washington

When: 9:00 PM ET, Friday, September 30, 2016
Where: Husky Stadium, Seattle, Washington
NCAAF Odds: Washington -3 / Total: 44

Analysis: The Washington Huskies are in a great position to beat Stanford and bolster their chances of reaching the four-team College Football Playoff, but I wasn’t very impressed with the Huskies in their narrow win over a so-so Arizona squad last weekend while conversely, I was encouraged by the fight that Stanford showed in refusing to lose against UCLA.

While it would seem like Washington has the far more explosive offense in this matchup, I believe the Huskies’ offensive statistics are skewed because of their early-season matchups against inferior opponents. Stanford has gone6-1 ATS in their last seven road games against a team with a winning home record and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS win.

While Washington has gone 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games following an ATS loss, the Huskies are also just 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games against a team with a winning road record. While the home team in this Pac-12 rivalry has gone 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. I’m going with Stanford to get the outright road win and ATS cover, seeing as how the Cardinal are 38-16-1 ATS in their last 55 conference games and have a defense that is as good as any in the nation right now.

My Pick: Stanford 31 Washington 28

Oklahoma Sooners (1-2) at TCU Horned Frogs (3-1)

When: Saturday, October 1, 2016 at 5:00 PM
Where: Amon Carter Stadium
NCAAF Odds: TCU Horned Frogs +2

Analysis: Maybe it’s me, but I’m still trying to figure out why Oklahoma is favored in this contest, seeing as how the Sooners’ defense almost literally can’t stop running water. While Oklahoma has gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven conference games, the Sooners are also 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall while TCU has gone 7-1 ATS in their last eight games in the month of October and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against the Sooners.

While Oklahoma has had an extra week to prepare for this game, but TCU has extra time after playing on Thursday night. With that said, I just don’t see the Sooners getting the road upset over a TCU team that I still improving as first-year starter Kenny Hill continues his maturation under center. TCU wins outright to cover the college football betting line!

My Pick: TCU 35 Oklahoma 31

No. 3 Louisville at No. 5 Clemson

When: Saturday, October 1, 2016 at 8:00 PM ET
Where: Memorial Stadium
NCAAF Odds: Clemson +1.5

Analysis: While I picked the Clemson Tigers to get back to this year’s national championship after falling just short a year ago and I’m sticking with that pick, I must admit that Louisville’s Lamar Jackson scares the hell out of me. Having said that, let me also say that I believe the Tigers are still the right pick to get the narrow win for two reasons. The Tigers are playing at home in front of their crazed fans and they have an elite defense.

I know Louisville is 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games in the month of September, but Clemson is 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an SU win and an encouraging 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against a team with a winning record.

The Tigers have won two straight over the Cardinals in narrow fashion and I expect them to make it three in a row by keeping Jackson in check and forcing someone else to beat them. I love the spread with Clemson being a surprising 1.5-point home dog and I believe Clemson will cover the spread by getting the outright win!

My Pick: Clemson 38 Louisville 31