Colorado State vs. Boise State

Colorado State vs. Boise State | 2020 NCAAF Expert Analysis

Written by on November 11, 2020

Just the one college football game on Thursday this week and it’s from the Mountain West when Boise State, which has fallen outside the Top 25, takes on Colorado State. The Broncos are solid favorites on the NCAAF odds.

How to Bet Colorado State at Boise State NCAA Football Odds & TV Info

  • When: Thursday, 8 PM ET
  • Where: Albertson Stadium
  • TV: Fox Sports 1
  • Stream: Fox Sports Go
  • Radio: Tunein.com
  • Opening NCAAF Lines: Boise State -13 (total 61)

Last Meeting

Last year, Boise State visited Colorado State and won 31-24. Broncos QB Jaylon Henderson ran for a short score early in the fourth to give Boise State some breathing room. He also threw two TD passes. Garrett Collingham hauled in one of Henderson’s TD passes and ran in another. Patrick O’Brien threw for 289 yards and two TDs for the Rams.

Boise State leads the all-time series 9-0 and is 4-0 at home. The Rams are one of two active programs (San Jose State) in the Mountain West conference to have never beaten the Broncos.

Why Bet on Colorado State? | 2020 NCAAF Expert Analysis

The Rams (1-1) knocked off visiting Wyoming last Thursday 34-24. CSU produced one from the start against its oldest and most heated rival, not only creating turnovers on the first two Wyoming possessions, but the unit fired the first shot in the series which dates back to 1899 when Marshaun Cameron returned his first interception as a Ram 30-yards for a touchdown.

Colorado State yielded more yards to Wyoming than to Fresno State the week before (465-432), but allowed 14 fewer points.  The Rams generated more yards in the opener than in the Border War (372-342) but scored 17 more points. The difference being Colorado State rose up to certain challenges and did a better job of avoiding self-inflicted wounds in the first win of the Steve Addazio era.

QB Patrick O’Brien, in his first start of the season, completed 18-of-26 passes for 255 yards and a pair of touchdown passes to Trey McBride. He also scored one of his own on a 1-yard sneak in the first half. Dante Wright, the freshman All-American in 2019 who missed the 2020 opener, finished with a career-best 10 catches for 146 yards, the third time in his career he surpassed the century mark.

“Tremendous. Just tremendous that we were able to get that win for our seniors,” Addazio said. “It was a great program win. I thought all three phases – offense, defense, special teams – our support staff, our staff, everybody really went after it.”

Winning the Border War game has proven to be a good omen as Colorado State did last week. Dating back to 1993, the start of the Sonny Lubick era, the Rams are 12-3 in games immediately following a win in the Border War.

It will be Colorado State’s 53rd game played on Thursday in program history, and the Rams are 23-28-1 all-time on the day, their most frequently played non-Saturday game day.

Why Bet on Boise State? | 2020 NCAAF Expert Analysis

The Broncos were beaten 51-17 at home by No. 9 BYU last week. Zach Wilson threw for 359 yards and two touchdowns and Tyler Allgeier rushed for 123 yards and a pair of scores for the Cougars. Boise State (2-1) suffered its worst home loss since a 64-19 rout by rival Idaho in 1996, the Broncos first year as an FBS program. Boise State lost the 1997 season opener to Cal State Northridge by 40 at home but that game was later forfeited to the Broncos.

Boise State trailed 16-3 at intermission, its largest halftime deficit at home since 2005 MPC Computers Bowl against Boston College (24-0). Senior wide receiver CT Thomas caught a pass in the third quarter to extend his streak of consecutive games with a reception to 33, third nationally among active players. Junior Khabil Shakir caught 10 passes for 139 yards and two touchdowns.

Freshman quarterback Cade Fennegan entered the game with 8:11 left in the first quarter and completed his first three-career pass attempts. He finished 15-of-26 for 182 yards, two touchdowns and one interception.

Boise State starting quarterback Hank Bachmeier was unavailable for the second consecutive game that he missed for undisclosed reasons. Junior Jack Sears, a transfer out of USC, started in Bachmeier’s place but left in the first quarter with an apparent concussion. It’s not yet clear who still start this game.

While the Broncos’ eight-game home winning streak came to an end, BSU still has an impressive streak going. The Broncos’ 11-straight conference victories is tied for the second-longest in the country, trailing only Ohio State (18).

A win over Colorado State would prevent Boise State from dropping consecutive games, whether in the same season or bridging one season to the next, for the first time since 2016. That season, the Broncos dropped the final two games, a 27-20 loss at Air Force and a 31-12 defeat against Baylor at the Motel 6 Cactus Bowl. Only six times since 2001 have the Broncos had a slide of at least two games. Boise State will be looking to avoid only its third back-to-back losses under Bryan Harsin (2014-present), and first since the final two contests of 2016.

Boise State is 61-18 all-time in non-Saturday games, including a record of 9-2 on Thursdays. During the regular season, Boise State is 53-12 in non-Saturday contests, and 8-2 on Thursdays. This is the Broncos’ first Thursday contest since hosting New Mexico, Sept. 14, 2017, a game the Broncos won 28-14. Boise State has never lost a home Thursday game, going a perfect 7-0.

Game Trends

  • Favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
  • Rams are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 Thursday games.
  • Rams are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
  • Rams are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win.
  • Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
  • Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
  • Broncos are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.

Expert Prediction

Boise State 38, Colorado State 27
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