NCAAF Expert Analysis - Top Games from 2020 Week 4

NCAAF Expert Analysis – Top Games from 2020 Week 4

Written by on September 25, 2020

Okay MyBookie college football betting faithful, with the SEC back in action as the fourth week of the 2020 season gets underway this weekend, it’s time to take a look at the top games on the Week 4 docket. Let’s get started with a pairing of nationally ranked Top 25 teams that both reside outside the perennially-powerful SEC so you can bet on their College Football odds.

NCAA Football Analysis – Top Week 4 Games to Bet On

No. 24 Louisville (1-1) at No. 21 Pittsburgh (2-0)

Louisville took out Western Kentucky 35-21 in Week 1 before falling to Miami 47-34 last Saturday as a 2.5-point home underdog no less. Pittsburgh pounded Austin Peay 55-0 in their opener before man-handling Syracuse in route to a 21-10 win last weekend.

  • When: Saturday, Sep. 26 at 12:00 PM ET
  • Where: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA
  • TV: ACCN
  • NCAAF Odds: Pittsburgh -3
  • Total: 55.5

Prediction

While these two teams haven’t met since 2015, Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Louisville is 1-8 ATS in their last nine games as a road dog while Pitt has gone 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS win. Pitt has the higher scoring offense and much better defense and that’s why the Panthers will win and cover!

Pick: Pittsburgh -3

Kansas State (0-1) at No. 3  Oklahoma (1-0)

K-State kicked off their 2020 campaign with an embarrassing 35-31 home loss against tiny Arkansas State two weeks ago while never coming close to covering the chalk as a 15.5-point favorite. Oklahoma pounded the hell out of overmatched Missouri State in their 48-0 season-opening win two weeks ago while narrowly covering the chalk as a 47.5-point home fav.

  • When: Saturday, Sep. 26 at 12:00 PM ET
  • Where: Memorial Stadium , Norman, OK
  • TV: FOX
  • Spread: Oklahoma -28
  • Total: 60.5

Prediction

The spread in this Big 12 conference clash may look daunting, but the Sooners have gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games in September while the home team in this rivalry has gone an identical 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The Sooners roll and narrowly cover in their conference opener.

Pick: Oklahoma -28

Mississippi State at No. 6 Louisiana State

Offensive-minded former Texas Tech and Washington State head coach Mike Leach takes over after going 139-90 at his two previous stops. Leach has won at least nine games seven times in his career while reaching the double-digit mark twice (2008, 2018). Leach will have former Stanford graduate transfer quarterback K.J. Costello under center and that will help the Bulldogs avoid some issues that come with an inexperienced signal-caller.

Defending national champion LSU looks nothing like they did a year ago after losing a whopping 14 players to the NFL draft, including first round picks, Joe Burrow, K’Lavon Chaisson, Justin Jefferson, Patrick Queen and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Not only that, but the Tigers will also be without reigning Biletnikoff Award winner Ja’Marr Chase and star defensive tackle Tyler Shelvin after both opted out of the season last month to focus on next year’s NFL Draft. Fourth-year junior Myles Brennan will make his first career start as he takes over for the record-breaking Burrow.

“I’ve always believed in Myles Brennan,” head coach Ed Orgeron said. “The only thing that we don’t know — and I do believe that he’s going to do very well — is how he’s going to do in the fire, and the only way to know that is put him in the fire.”

  • When: Saturday, Sep. 26 at 3:30 PM ET
  • Where: Tiger Stadium , Baton Rouge, LA
  • TV: CBS
  • NCAAF Odds: LSU -16.5
  • Total: 57

Prediction

While Mississippi State has gone an uninspiring 2-5 ATS in their last seven conference games and 1-7 ATS in their last seven road games, one thing Mike Leach can do is coach offense. While LSU has gone an unblemished 4- ATS in their last four games and a robust 1607 ATS in their last 23 conference games, I’m going with Mississippi State to, not only cover the spread, but to push LSU for the outright win!

Pick: Mississippi State +16.5

No. 3 Georgia at Arkansas

Georgia went 12-2 a year ago to finish atop the SEC East standings while Arkansas limped to a pitiful 2-10 mark that included an -8 record in SEC contests. Still, the Dawgs will look a lot different as quarterback Jake Fromm is gone and expected new signal-caller, former Wake Forest star, Jamie Newman, opted out of the 2020 season.

Now, Georgia will turn to USC transfer JT Daniels while redshirt freshman D’Wan Mathis waits his turn. Daniels was still awaiting medical clearance at the start of the week after recovering from last year’s knee injury, but he’s expected to be ready to go in this one

“We hope J.T. will be cleared by Saturday, officially,” Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart said.

Arkansas has a new head coach in Sam Pittman, who spent the last four seasons as Georgia’s offensive line coach. The Razorbacks also will have a new quarterback as Florida transfer Feleipe Franks takes over.

  • When: Saturday, Sep. 26 at 4:00 PM ET
  • Where: Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR
  • TV: SECN
  • Spread: Georgia -28
  • Total: 52.5

Prediction

While Georgia is the better team in this regular season opener, the Bulldogs have gone 1-4 ATS in their last five games in the month of September. I know Arkansas is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 conference games and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall, but the underdog in this SEC rivalry has gone 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and I believe Georgia is going to struggle early on until JT Daniels finds his footing. I like the Razorbacks to cover the spread as a four-touchdown home dog!

Pick: Arkansas +28

No. 2 Alabama at Missouri

Alabama went 11-2 last season, but will have a relatively new starting quarterback in redshirt junior Mac Jones, though he started four games last year when Tua Tagovailoa was injured and threw for 1,503 yards with 14 touchdowns and three interceptions. Still, the Tide lost a bunch of talent with Tagovailoa, tackle Jedrick Wills and wide receivers, Henry Ruggs III and Jerry Jeudy all going in the first round of the 2020 NFL draft.

Missouri went 6-6 last season, but will also have a new starting signal-caller under center in 2020 after redshirt junior Taylor Powell decided to transfer. Now, either redshirt junior Shawn Robinson or redshirt freshman Connor Bazelak will start. The Tigers also have a new head coach as former Appalachian State coach Ed Drinkwitz takes over after leading the Mountaineers to a stupendous 12-1 mark a year ago. Still, Missouri was elite defensively a year ago and has a pair of gifted safeties in Tyree Gillespie and Joshuah Bledsoe.

  • When: Saturday, Sep. 26 at 7:00 PM ET
  • Where: Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field, Columbia, MO
  • TV: ESPN
  • NCAAF Odds: Alabama -27.5
  • Total: 56

Prediction

While I’m not expecting Missouri to come close to pulling off the outright upset in this matchup, I am going to back the Tigers to cover the chalk as near, four-touchdown underdogs. Alabama is 1-5 ATS in their last six games in the month of September while Mizzou has gone a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games in September. I like the Crimson Tide to win, but the Tigers to cover!

Pick: Missouri +27.5

Florida State (0-1) at No. 14 Miami (2-0)

Florida State was on the wrong end of a humbling 16-13 loss against Georgia Tech two weeks ago while never coming close to covering the spread as a 13-point home favorite. Miami is off to a perfect 2-0 start after smacking UAB around 31-14 in their opener and backing that up with an even more impressive 47-34 smackdown over nationally ranked Louisville last weekend.

Not only are the Seminoles an uninspiring 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven road games and 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, but quarterback James Blackman is already struggling by completing just 53.5 percent of his passes with one TD pass and one pick. Conversely, Miami’s new starting signal-caller, former Houston star, D’Eriq King, is playing phenomenal football with four TD passes and no picks while adding 92 rushing yards and another score.

  • When: Saturday, Sep. 26
  • Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
  • TV: ABC
  • Spread: Miami -11
  • Total: 54

Prediction

Miami has gone 4-1 ATS in their last five conference games and a consistent 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games in the month of September. While the road team in this lengthy rivalry has gone 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings, I’m going with Miami to get it done in this one, seeing as how I expect quarterback D’Eriq King to be the best player on the field.

Pick: Miami -11

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