Auburn vs Louisville NCAA Football Odds Report

Posted by Daniel Strum on Thursday,September 3, 2015 8:30, EDT in

If College Football betting fans are ready to cash in on arguably the most intriguing college football match up on the Week 1 slate, then they’re going to enjoy this expert betting breakdown on the Week 1 match up between the Louisville Cardinals and Auburn Tigers.

How To Bet the Cardinals @ Tigers NCAA Football Odds & Game Info

When: Saturday, September 5, 3:30 PM ET
Where: Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia
NCAAF Odds: Auburn -10.5
Over/Under: 58.5

Why bet on the Auburn Tigers

The Auburn Tigers kick off the third season of the Gus Malzahn era looking to get back into national title contention after falling to just eight wins in 2014 after winning a dozen games in 201 and reaching the national championship game. The good news for Malzahn and the Tigers is that they are brimming with so much talent that they’ve been picked to win the SEC in 2015. With dual threat quarterback Nick Marshall gone, Auburn will be led by experienced backup Jeremy Johnson, a player that I believe will be a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate this season.

Wide receiver D’haquille Williams (45 catches, 730 yards, five touchdowns) will be Johnson’s primary target while talented Jovon Robinson, the nation’s No. 1 junior college transfer, will compete for the starting running back job against incredibly talented freshman Roc Thomas. Auburn will have to overcome the losses of three starters on the offensive line but again, the Tigers possess a wealth of quality talent and have six offensive linemen that have all made at least one start in the SEC.

Defensively, the Tigers and their fan base are excited about the arrival of former Florida head coach and the excellent defensive mind of new defensive coordinator Will Muschamp. The Tigers return their top three tacklers from last season and have a pair of defensive linemen in tackle Montravius Adams and defensive end Byron Cowart that could be as good as anyone in the nation at their respective positions.

Why bet on the Louisville Cardinals

Louisville (9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS, 5-7 O/U) won nine games last season in polarizing head coach Bobby Petrino’s return to Louisville, which, ironically the same number of games he won in his first go-round with the Cardinals back in 2003. At any rate, the Cardinals are in a state of reshaping their tam on both sides of the ball with just three returning starters on offense and only four on defense. The Cardinals will have a new starting quarterback in 2015, most likely athletically gifted sophomore Reggie Bonnafon. The bad news is that Louisville’s top three receivers from last season are gone. Junior running back Brandon Radcliff will be the primary ball-carrier after rushing for over 700 yards last season.

Louisville was an absolute monster defensively last season as they ranked sixth in total defense, 10th against the run, 27th against the pass and 25th in points allowed (21.8 ppg).

Key Over/Under Trends

  • Under is 9-2 in Louisville’s last 11 games in September.
  • Over is 4-1-1 in the Cardinals last 6 games overall.
  • Under is 8-2-1 in Auburn’s last 11 games against ACC teams.

My Expert Game Analysis and Betting Pick

I like Auburn a lot hading into the 2015 regular season, but not enough at this point to pick them to bat Louisville by 11 points. I know the Tigers are playing at home in this matchup, but both teams are going to need some time to jell this season and I believe Louisville’s defense is going to be good enough to keep them close enough to cover the double-digit point spread, even in defeat. The Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games in the month of September while Auburn has gone 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against ACC tams and a winless 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Bank on the polarizing Bobby Petrino to lead Louisville to the ATS cover, if not the outright road win!

The Pick: Louisville +10.5 Points