Underdog NCAAF Betting: Best Week 5 Upset Picks

Posted by Alex Murphy on Saturday,October 3, 2015 1:20, EST in

If you want to know how quickly the perception of a college football team can change in the NCAAF betting odds, you should look at what happened to the Oregon Ducks last week against Utah, and how the upset loss influenced their ranking and odds in their Week 5 encounter Colorado. Meanwhile, the Utes are now the hottest Pacific-12 team in the college football lines, with an influx of bets being currently witnessed in favor of Utah playing the Pac-12 Championship game. Simply put, it’s all about being opportunistic and taking advantage of any opportunities given to you. The bigger the opponent you beat, the better it is for your reputation.

Ahead of the Week 5 college football games, there are many teams with such upset opportunities. However, not all of them look up to the task. In addition, it is impossible to talk about all teams that look capable of delivering upsets. Essentially, that’s the reason we’ve narrowed a list to provide the best Week 5 college football betting underdogs that are likely to deliver the most juicy upset payouts for you.

North Carolina at Georgia Tech

north-carolina-tar-heelsPick: North Carolina (+7.5)
Both the Tar Heels and Yellow Jackets are well-endowed with talent on the offense, but the momentum is with North Carolina after a big Week 3 win. The Jackets, on the hand, enter this game on the back of two successive defeats (30-22 to Notre Dame and 34-20 to Duke) and have struggled in rushing the ball like they did in Week 1 and 2. So although there’s a good chance for Georgia Tech to play really well at home, I don’t see the motivated Tar Heels laying as many as 7.5 point, or losing the game for that matter.

Mississippi State at Texas A&M

mississippi-statePick: Mississippi State (-6.5)
Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray have been impressive for Texas A&M at QB, particularly in the passing game. Unfortunately for the Aggies, the Bulldogs have been one of the hottest SEC teams this season and are coming off a morale-boosting win over Auburn last Saturday. Moreover, Mississippi State’s QB Dak Prescott is a lethal dual-threat attacker, which gives him some slight advantage over Allen and Murray, who are mostly dependent on passing the ball. Added to the fact that Prescott is yet to be intercepted this season and the Bulldogs defense is giving up just 14.8 PPG so far this season, it would not be a surprise if Mississippi State delivers another huge upset win this week.

Alabama at Georgia

Alabama-CrimsonPick: Alabama (+2.5)
After losing to Ole Miss in Week 3, the Crimson Tide cannot afford another loss in the SEC. Notching another defeat would almost guarantee that Alabama’s quest for the playoffs comes to an end, and knowing the Tide team, that is not an issue they will be taking lightly. So although Georgia looks more talented on paper and Greyson Lambert gives the Bulldogs a QB edge over Alabama, you can expect Nick Saban to rally his team for a very strong performance, something we believe will give the Tide a good chance of upsetting their the home-favored Bulldogs. Plus, Alabama has recently enjoyed a dominant performance over the Bulldogs, so there’s no reason they shouldn’t be able to tap into that magic once again.

East Carolina at SMU,

smu-mustangsPick: SMU (+5.5)
East Carolina enters this game on the back of a big win over the Virginia Tech Hokies, something that has caught the attention of many bettors, and rightfully so. The Mustangs, on the other hand, weren’t able to close out last week’s encounter against FCS James Madison, and many are the opinion that SMU will be a walkover to East Carolina. But then, this is the same SMU team that nearly pulled an upset win over TCU on September 19 and also tested Baylor quite well. So if that hard-fighting Mustang team can show up this Saturday, SMU should be able to upset the NCAAF odds with a home win.

Other Upset Picks
•    Ohio at Akron, Pick: Akron (+2.5)
•    Northern Illinois at Central Michigan: Pick: Central Michigan (+3)
•    Nebraska at Illinois, Pick: Illinois (+6.5)
•    Notre Dame at Clemson, Pick: Notre Dame (+1.5)