TCU vs. Oregon Alamo Bowl Preview & NCAAF Odds Analysis

Posted by Eric Williams on December 31, 2015 in

The TCU Horned Frogs and Oregon Ducks were set to stage what looked like a high-scoring affair when they square off in the 2015 Alamo Bowl on Saturday, January 2 at 6:45 PM ET, live from the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas. Unfortunately, due to some recent breaking news, this bowl game matchup has been thrown completely out of whack and now looks like a virtual lock for one of these teams. Now, let’s find out why in our NCAAF betting analysis!

TCU vs. Oregon Alamo Bowl Preview & NCAAF Odds Analysis

When: 6:45 PM ET, Saturday, January 2, 2016
Where: Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas
O/U: 78.5

TCU is a 1-point favorite to beat Oregon after opening as a 1.5-point favorite. The game’s Over/Under total is sitting at a whopping 78.5 after opening at 78. The Horned Frogs are a -110 favorite against the Moneyline while the Ducks are a +100 Moneyline selection.

Why Bet The TCU Horned Frogs Odds at -1

There’s absolutely no reason why – now! The Horned Frogs were a 1-point favorite to win this game – before Thursday morning that is. Unfortunately, starting quarterback and elite Heisman Trophy contender, Trevone Boykin was arrested in the wee hours of Thursday morning after getting involved in a bar fight and striking a police officer.

According to authorities, Boykin, 22, and several teammates were partying in center city just before 2 a.m. when some patrons recognized the quarterback and began to trash talk. A fight ensued and Boykin reportedly struck a bar employee before the fight spilled outside.

When San Antonio bicycle police officers arrived at the scene and tried to stop the fight with the help of bar bouncers, Boykin reportedly threw an “indiscriminate” punch that struck an officer. Boykin was then was arrested and charged with assaulting a police officer, resisting arrest and public intoxication, according to reports. The TCU athletic department issued a statement Thursday morning.

“We are aware of a situation last night and are gathering information,” the statement reads. “We will continue to closely monitor this and evaluate additional details as they become available.”

Boykin had a season for the ages by completing 64.8 percent of his passes for 3,574 yards with 31 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Now, with Boykin almost assuredly sitting this contest out, all bets for the Horned Frogs – and their chance of winning – are completely vanquished in my mind.

TCU averaged a stellar 41.7 points per game this season (seventh) and scored 50 or more points on five occasions, but again, they’re going to be seriously hampered without their superstar signal-caller. The Horned Frogs allow 26.1 points per game (59th).


Why Bet The Oregon Ducks Odds at Even

Because they have Royce Freeman and Vernon Adams! Senior quarterback Vernon Adams overcame an early season finger injury to complete an impressive 64.6 percent of his passes while throwing for 2,446 yards with 25 touchdown passes and just six interceptions.

The Ducks also have one of the nation’s best running back in Royce Freeman even though he is seriously underrated. Freeman rushed for an eye-opening 1,706 yards and 14 touchdowns while posting a whopping 10, 100-yard rushing games.

“He’s a guy that I think was very overshadowed, unfortunately, with kind of some early losses,” Oregon coach Mark Helfrich told reporters. “He was out of any talk for individual awards and accolades. I know that doesn’t mean a ton to him, but it’s unfortunate for him.”

Junior wideout Bralon Addison caught 58 passes for 775 yards and 10 touchdowns, while sophomore Darren Carrington averaged 20.1 yards per catch.

Oregon checks in with a 43.2 average and four outings of over 50. The Ducks are shaky on defense – allowing 36.8 per contest – despite ending the regular season with six consecutive victories. The Ducks average 43.2 points per game (5th) but allow a whopping 36.8 points per game defensively (114th).

Expert Pick & Final Score Prediction

The favorite has won seven of the last nine Alamo Bowls, but again, without Trevone Boykin, I don’t think TCUY has any chance of pulling off the upset and I expect the odds to change or come off the board as well.

• Oregon is 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after consecutive wins.
• Oregon is 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four games in January.
• TCU is 0-4 SU in its last four games after winning as an underdog.

My final score prediction is Oregon 49 TCU 21