Thursday Night College Football games are generally reserved for teams that are a good deal lower on the totem pole, but we have a good one lined up this coming Thursday night. That is when the eternal college football betting favorites, the Florida State Seminoles take their show on the road to Louisville in a game that many are predicting could well be a trip up game for the Seminoles.
Venue: Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium, Louisville, Kentucky
Date: Thursday, October 30, 2014
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Broadcast on ESPN
There are some good reasons why people might think that, as Florida State, despite being 7-0, are not quite the juggernaut that they were last season. They barely escaped Clemson in Week 2, and had to struggle to beat NC State. Then again, they were the beneficiaries of a last second penalty call that save them from falling to defeat against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Interestingly enough, in the games against Clemson and Notre Dame, the Noles were unable to establish a ground game, which could happen against a Louisville team who has consistently stuffed the run all season.
Louisville is coming into this game with a respectable 6-2 record and the opportunity to take down the National Champions in front of a fired up home crowd. While they certainly have a defense capable of frustrating Florida State, the big question remains as to whether they have enough weapons on the offensive side of the ball to spring the upset. They have played it tight all year, with 7 of their games going UNDER the point total this season.
The bookies see this as being a tight one, too, as Florida State has been installed as a 5-point road favorite. If they are to cover, you have to think that a ground game will need to be established early on. That is not going to be an easy feat against this tough Louisville defense.
In order for Louisville to spring the upset, they are going to have to be opportunistic and show more on offense than they have all season. Their best opportunity to do so is likely to be on the ground, where Florida State looks a little vulnerable.
FLORIDA STATE: -3½-110
Florida State are just 1-5 ATS this season, with Louisville sporting a 5-3 record in that department. Where the real trend seems to be here with both teams is in the point total. I already mentioned that Louisville have had 7 of their games go UNDER the total. Add to that the fact that 3 of the Seminoles games have gone UNDER, too, and you have a trend. That is why my money will be going there.