Week 10 NCAAF Odds & Prediction for Penn State vs. Michigan State.

Week 10 NCAAF Odds & Prediction for Penn State vs. Michigan State

Written by on November 1, 2017

Penn State will look to bounce back after suffering a completely heartbreaking late-game collapse last weekend when they hit the road to visit No. 24 Michigan State as the NCAAF Odds favorite. The Spartans will host the Nittany Lions at Spartan Stadium at 12 noon ET with this matchup airing live on FOX. Now, let’s find out which team is offering the best value against their College Football betting lines in this one.

Nittany Lions (7-1) vs. Spartans (6-2) NCAAF Odds, Preview & Prediction

  • When: Saturday, November 4, 2017, 12:00 PM ET
  • Where: Spartan Stadium
  • TV: FOX
  • Radio: 106.1 FM (Penn State) / 94.9 FM (Michigan State)
  • Live StreamBTN2Go
  • NCAAF Odds: Penn State -8.5 (Over/Under at 48)

Weather Forecast

  • Overcast: 8°C/46°F
  • Humidity: 73%
  • Precipitation: 15%
  • Cloud Cover: 85%
  • Wind: 10 mph E
  • Stadium Type: Open

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Recent Head to Head (Last 10 Games)

  • Record: Penn State leads 6-4
  • Score: Penn State 30.00 / Michigan State 24.40
  • Rush Yards: Penn State 129.90 / Michigan State 119.50
  • Pass Attempts: Penn State 33.20 / Michigan State 36.50
  • Completion Percentage: Penn State 54.82 / Michigan State 59.73
  • Passing Yards: Penn State 255.00 / Michigan State 233.70
  • Total Yards: Penn State 384.9 / Michigan State 353.2
  • Turnovers: Penn State 1.30 / Michigan State 2.10

Why consider the Nittany Lions NCAAF Odds?

There are a few good reasons to bet on Penn State in this contest. First, they’re the better team on both sides of the ball. Second, the Nittany Lions are going to be very focused and extremely hungry after suffering their heartbreaking 39-38 defeat against Ohio State last weekend. Last but not least Penn State is hoping to stay alive as a potential participant in the four-team College Football Playoff. The Nittany Lions have won five of their last six road games and held a team meeting following their loss last weekend to make sure they’re on the same page moving forward after dropping from No. 2 to No. 6 in the AP poll. Quarterback Trace McSorley is completing 65.9 percent of his passes for 2,071 yards with 16 touchdowns and five interceptions. More importantly, the Nittany Lions have an unstoppable superstar in gifted running back Saquon Barkley who has rushed for 801 yards and nine touchdowns while adding 471 receiving yards and three scores on 36 catches. Barkley returned the opening kickoff 97 yards for a touchdown and also had a 36-yard scoring run at Ohio State. “We need to be more explosive,” Nittany Lions coach James Franklin said. “That game we were not explosive. We didn’t have the big plays we had in the past that, over the last two years, has been kind of our eraser for some of our issues.” Defensively, Penn State is allowing just 13.3 points per game while averaging a stellar 39.7 points per contest offensively. Still, head coach James Franklin says there are areas where he sees the need for improvement. “The best teams in the country have issues that they need to work on and get better, and we’re one of them,” Franklin said.

Team Statistics

Offense
  • Average Score For: 39.75
  • Total Yards: 440.74
  • Rush Yards: 163.12
  • Passing Yards: 277.62
Defense
  • Average Score Against: 13.25
  • Total Yards: 313.62
  • Rush Yards: 126.00
  • Passing Yards: 187.62

Why consider the Spartans NCAAF Odds?

The best reason to back Michigan State in this contest is that they’re playing at home and they’re going to be hungry after falling to Northwestern 39-31 last weekend. Still, head coach Mark Dantonio doesn’t want to get into a shootout against the high-scoring Nittany Lions and realizes the need for better ball protection from his team. The Spartans have fumbled 22 times even though they’ve only lost 10. Penn State has forced 14 fumbles and recovered 11. “It’s a point of emphasis and a point of frustration,” Dantonio said.”Penn State is the best in the conference at takeaways right now. That traditionally has been our role when we’ve won championships. I don’t have an answer for you (concerning the fumbles). I can just tell you it’s on everybody’s mind.” For the season, quarterback Brian Lewerke is completing 61.4 percent of his passes for 1,807 yards with 14 touchdowns and just four interceptions. Dantonio says he has his focus on moving forward, not his team’s most recent loss. Brian Lewerke and Michigan State are the NCAAF Odds underdog for Week 10. “It’s always been my focus here — what’s going to happen next? I cannot change what’s happened in the past,” he said. Defensively, Michigan State is putting a modest 23.7 points per game on the board offensively while limiting their opponents to just19.6 points per game. Still, Dantonio knows he’ll need to find a way to corral the supremely gifted Barkley. “I don’t think there’s any way you can prevent them from getting him the ball,” Dantonio said of Barkley. “Maybe on kickoffs you could a little bit. They’re going to get him the ball when they want. He’s a great running back. We’ve played other great running backs. We’ve played him before.

Team Statistics

Offense
  • Average Score For: 23.75
  • Total Yards: 393.62
  • Rush Yards: 167.12
  • Passing Yards: 226.50
Defense
  • Average Score Against: 19.62
  • Total Yards: 283.5
  • Rush Yards: 89.88
  • Passing Yards: 193.62

Latest NCAAF Week 10 Betting Trends

  • Nittany Lions are 15-1-1 ATS in their last 17 games
  • Nittany Lions are 16-2 SU in their last 18 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 8 of Penn State’s last 11 games on the road
  • Spartans are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games at home
  • Spartans are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Michigan State’s last 7 games when playing Penn State

Expert Analysis and Prediction

If you think the double-digit point spread looks daunting, don;t be worried, I expect Penn State to cover it with room to spare! The Nittany Lions are a near-perfect 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games, 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 conference games and blistering 16-3-2 ATS in their last 21 games overall. While the Spartans have gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in November and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games, the favorite in this series is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings. Penn State wins and covers – it’s that simple! Pick: Penn State -12