My NCAA Football Week 4 Parlay Picks & Analysis

Posted by Tony Newborn on Thursday,September 18, 2014 1:32, EDT in

After three weeks of mostly non conference games in college football betting action, Week 4 brings viewers league play and conference rivalries. Of the 57 games scheduled between Thursday and Saturday, 12 of them are conference tilts, including six involving ranked teams. I am picking 3 college football games form week 4 that you need to parlay.

A Sneak Peak at My College Football Week 4 Parlay Picks & Analysis

    • Auburn Tigers -10
    • Texas A&M -31
    • Missouri -17

5 Auburn Tigers at 20 Kansas State Wildcats

When:  Sept. 18, 7:30 pm ET
Betting Line:  Auburn -10

Analysis: Auburn is a covering machine. The Tigers have covered in their first two games of this season. Not only that, but the trends say that they cover this spread on Thursday night since they are 11 and 0 in their last 11 games following an ATS win and 13 and 3 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up victory.

Kansas State is 0 and 2 ATS this season. They don’t seem to have the pedigree of a team that can break any of the strong trends favoring the Auburn Tigers. I’m going with Auburn.

Pick:Auburn -10

7 Texas A&M Aggies at SMU Mustangs

When: Sept. 20, 3:30 pm ET
Betting Line: Texas A&M -31

Analysis: Tough to back A&M to cover 31 points?  Not really. The Aggies are 2 and 1 against the spread so far this season and even though it took the offense a while to get going versus Rice, A&M still managed to beat Rice on the road 38 to 10. It wasn’t a cover since the Aggies were 31 point favorites, but you can’t expect a team to cover in every game and Rice is a much, much better team than Southern Methodist is. SMU has been outscored 88 to 6 in their two games this season. They lost 0 to 45 to Baylor and then received a 6 to 43 whipping at the hands of the North Texas Mean Green in their second game as a +2.5 point dog. SMU’s offense is averaging -8 yards per game on the ground.

After the lackluster offensive performance versus Rice, once has to expect that the Aggies will come out with all cylinders firing. Expect Texas A&M to win this game by at least 42 points.

Pick:Texas A&M -31

Indiana Hoosiers at 19 Missouri Tigers

When: Sept. 20, 4:00 pm ET
Betting Line: Missouri -17

Analysis: Missouri is 2 and 1 against the spread this season. More importantly, the Hoosiers are 0 and 2 ATS this season. Indiana not only allowed Bowling Green to rush for 176 yards and pass for 395 against them in their last game, the Hoosiers also lost straight up 45 to 48 as a -8.5 point favorite.

Now, Indiana travels to Missouri to take on a Tigers’ squad that was awesome in a 49 to 24 victory over Toledo on the road and even better versus Central Florida in a 38 to 10 victory as a -10 point favorite. Indiana isn’t nearly as good as Central Florida. If the Tigers could handle the Knights, they should easily handle the Hoosiers, right? The trends say so. While Missouri is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games, Indiana is 1 and 6 ATS in their last 7 road games.

Pick: Missouri -17