Week 9 Football Odds Prediction: No.22 West Virginia Goes for Another Upset in Oklahoma

Posted by D.Zamzack on Wednesday,October 22, 2014 1:25, EDT in

West Virginia’s 41-27 upset victory over Baylor, which resulted in the Mountaineers re-emergence in the national polls (No. 22 in AP Poll and No. 25 in the Amyway Coaches Poll), is seemingly not enough for most online betting sites to favor them in this week’s matchup against the unranked Oklahoma State Cowboys. Despite entering the game as 1-point dogs, the Mountaineers have it to win and pull an upset. So here are the football odds prediction and other info for this game.

Both teams are tied at a similar record (5-2 overall, 3-1 in Big 2), so a win would catapult either of the teams to a strong position in the highly-contended Big 12 Championship. But what makes the Cowboys bookies’ favorites to win the game, according to most football analysts, is their solid home record. The Cowboys are 4-0 at home this season and, more impressively, 23-2 in the last 25 games played in the Boone Pickens Stadium. If you add the dominance at home to the good 5-2 home record in seven games against ranked opponents, the Cowboys definitely look like a steep peak for the Mountaineers to climb. But after a big Week 8 victory and with the team’s strong passing attack, West Virginia is surely capable of another upset this week.

Saturday, October 25, 3:30 PM, Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, Oklahoma

So, do you see the Mountaineers pulling another upset or will the Cowboys stay unbeaten at home this season? Well, check out the section below for a college football betting analysis of this game to help you place a well-informed bet.

Game and Betting Analysis

Head-to-Head and Recent Records
In the series, the Mountaineers hold a 3-2 advantage over the Cowboys. In their most recent matchups, West Virginia upset Oklahoma State 30-21 at Morgantown (West Virginia) in 2013 while the Cowboys took a resounding 53-34 win in Stillwater in 2012.

The Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games on the road against Big 12 opponents while the Cowboys are quite solid with an 8-3 ATS in 11 games against their conference opponents. Unfortunately for the Oklahoma fans, their team lost 42-9 to TCU in a game that the Cowboys were a no-show. Contrastingly, West Virginia convincingly defeated the then-unbeaten Baylor by a 41-27 score. Whether West Virginia will build on last season’s victory and Baylor’s win or whether Oklahoma State will use its good home and conference record is open to debate. What is certain here is that both teams have records enough to propel them to a crucial conference win this Saturday.

Players and Tactics

Under the tutelage of Coach Mike Gundy, special teams have always been a tactful strength for Oklahoma State, especially in big games. While planning for this week’s matchup, the Mountaineers should thus be prepared for such special teams.

Important to the Mountaineers victory will be Kevin White and Clint Trickett. White leads the nation with an average of 148 yards per game this season and Clint Trickett completed 23 of 35 passes and three TDs last week. If both can be as inspirational as they were last week, Virginia’s magnificent passing game can steer the team to victory.

On the opposite end, Oklahoma’s front seven have been quite inept at passing. However, the Cowboys can make up for their inferior passing and rush yards with their relatively stronger defense of linebacker Josh Furman and defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah. Also, since Trickett has been sacked 11 times, the Oklahoma State’s defensive players can force the QB to make mistakes and limit the offensive efficiency of the Mountaineers.

Schedule: Saturday, Oct. 25 at 3:33 PM ET in Boone Pickens Stadium

Off-the-field Updates:
West Virginia defensive end Shaquille Riddick was named Big12’s Defensive Player of the Week for his outstanding performance last week. Watch out for another impressive game by the defender in Saturday’s game.
• While Riddick was being celebrated, OSU wide receiver Jhajuan Seales and backup cornerback Juwan Offray were doing their own celebration (or relieving stress) in an alleged drinking spree. The two were reportedly found guilty of public intoxication and related drama in Stillwater, hence had to pay fines to be released. Let’s hope for Saturday’s sake that Seales and Offray won’t come to the field drunk.

Game Odds:
WEST VIRGINIA: +1-110
OKLAHOMA STATE: -1-110

Prediction
My honest take is that this game could go either way (including a tie result). If either of the teams win, it is highly likely to be a marginal victory. My pick: even though the Cowboys are slightly favorited by most bookies to win because of their solid home record, I will take my chances by betting on another upset by the Mountaineers.