Houston at Denver Odds & Expert Pick

2016 Houston Texans Season Win Total Predictions

Written by on July 20, 2016

The Houston Texans took advantage of the injury to Colts star quarterback Andrew Luck last season in winning the AFC South title, although things got ugly in the wild-card game against Kansas City. What to expect this year from Houston? It has a wins total of 8.5 on NFL betting odds with the over a slight betting favorite.

Analysis on the 2016 Houston Texans Season Win Total Predictions

Total Win/Loss Odds Overview

The Texans’ 44-26 loss to the Miami Dolphins in Week 7 last year was the catalyst for the team’s playoff run. Houston trailed 41-0 at the half and saw its defense shredded for 503 yards. The Texans said afterwards they were embarrassed by the blowout and used it as a rallying point for the rest of season. It worked. Houston bounced back from the loss to finish the regular season 7-2. But in the wild-card game, Houston lost 30-0 at home to the Chiefs. Texans quarterback Brian Hoyer had the worst game of his career with four interceptions and a fumble. The Texans had constant questions at the position all season, even when Hoyer was healthy. They yo-yoed between Hoyer and Ryan Mallett at the start of the season and became the first team since 1950 to have four different quarterbacks win a game in the same season and make the playoffs.

Why Betting On The Over

Because new QB Brock Osweiler should be an upgrade from Hoyer. The Broncos looked like the easy favorite to re-sign Osweiler until the Texans swooped in. Immediately after the season, Coach Bill O’ Brien immersed himself in film of Texans players and potential free agents. He came away believing Osweiler was “the right guy.” “We study all these guys,” O’Brien said. “We watch their [regular-season] tape [and] their preseason tape. When you threw the tape on from [last season]. it was impressive. He played in some very tough games, some very meaningful games.” Houston also upgraded at running back in signing former Dolphin Lamar Miller. In need of a replacement for the recently released Arian Foster, Houston swooped in on Miller after contract talks broke down with the Dolphins. Miller immediately becomes the top back in the team’s arsenal, which also features Alfred Blue and Kenny Hilliard. Miller is one of six running backs with at least 40 starts since 2013, but his 2,680 rushing yards are by far the fewest in that group. He’s also coming off a down season in which he rushed for 872 yards (227 fewer than the previous year) and saw his efficiency decline from 5.1 to 4.5 yards per rush. But the Dolphins usually didn’t use Miller correctly.

Why Betting On The Under

The defense has three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt, but his health could be concern. Watt said he won’t be a player who tries to play as long as possible and that he’d only play as long as he’s performing as one of the best in the NFL. Watt dealt with a string of health issues in 2015, including reportedly tearing five of core muscles. “Last year, was definitely by far the most strenuous on my body that I’ve ever had, fighting through a bunch of things that I’ve never dealt with before,” Watt said. “We had the broken hand. I had a herniated disk in my back halfway through the year. I had, obviously, everything that went on with my groins and I don’t think everyone fully understand what that process was like.” Watt didn’t miss a game and led the league with 17.5 sacks.

My Betting Prediction

Tough team to project because it’s not clear if Osweiler is a franchise QB, but I’m going over this total on NFL odds.