2016 Kansas City Chiefs Season Win Total Prediction

Posted by Jordan Walterss on Thursday,July 21, 2016 9:52, EST in

The 2015 Kansas City Chiefs were 1-5 and had lost star running back Jamaal Charles to a season-ending injury. Their season was over. Only it wasn’t. The Chiefs then won an incredible 10 straight game behind their defense to make the playoffs. Any chance Kansas City reaches 11 wins again this year? They have a total of 9.5 on NFL betting lines.

Analysis on the 2016 Kansas City Chiefs Season Win Total Prediction

Total Win/Loss Odds Overview

The Chiefs went to Houston for the wild-card game and put a 30-0 beatdown on the Texans. On the opening kickoff, Knile Davis got three good blocks around the 10-yard line and then simply outran the rest of the defenders for the 106-yard kickoff return score, the second-longest kickoff return TD in postseason history. That stood up the rest of the way with Kansas City forcing five turnovers. The victory broke streak of eight straight playoff losses by the Chiefs and is their first postseason win since beating the Oilers in Houston on Jan. 16, 1994.

The next week in New England, everyone thought the Chiefs’ season would end and it did in a competitive 27-20 loss. Trailing 27-13, the Chiefs drained 5 minutes, 16 seconds off the clock during a 16-play drive that eventually pulled them within one score. For some reason, Coach Andy Reid declined to use any of his timeouts, even when his team was in a first-and- goal situation with 2:33 left to play.

Reid allowed 25 seconds to drain before the two-minute warning, had his team huddle on multiple occasions and ultimately used another 1:20 before Charcandrick West scored from 1 yard. By that time, however, there was only 1:13 remaining in the game. The Chiefs didn’t get the onside kick and that was that. Dumb move by Reid, who has made clock management mistakes before with the Eagles.

Why Betting On The Over?

No single player changed Kansas City’s fortunes quite like Jeremy Maclin did in 2015. He became just the eighth receiver in team history to top 1,000 yards. He tallied the most catches (84) by any Chief not named Tony Gonzalez (96 in 2008). And his eight scores were eight more than the entire receiving corps managed all last season. He was worth every penny of his $55 million contract.

At quarterback, Alex Smith is coming off back-to- back seasons with at least 3,000 yards passing for the first time in his career. He proved to be one of the best in the NFL last year when teams tried to bring pressure, completing 63 percent of his passes with 10 touchdowns to just one interception against the blitz. Smith’s passer rating of 109.3 against the blitz ranked fifth in the NFL among starters.

Cornerback Marcus Peters was a steal with 18th pick in the 2015 draft. The Washington product had Defensive Rookie of the Year-caliber season with eight interceptions, two forced fumbles, one touchdown.

The 2016 schedule looks fairly reasonable. The Chiefs will play just five games against 2015 playoff teams. Their record against those opponents last season: 4-1. The Chiefs also have a more balanced schedule rather than one stacked with road games early. That was a factor in last year’s 1-5 start.

Why Betting On The Under?

On defense, the Chiefs lost their best player, Justin Houston, to a torn ACL this offseason. So much of what the Chiefs do defensively involves Houston and safety Eric Berry, who remains unsigned. They re-signed aging defenders Tamba Hali and Derrick Johnson while watching cornerback Sean Smith sign with the division-rival Raiders. Kansas City traded out of the draft’s first round after the NFL punished the Chiefs in the Maclin tampering case.

The offensive line is a question as there are only two players who return along the offensive line that played significant snaps for them last year. Jeff Allen is coming back from an injury suffered in Week 1 of last season. Throughout OTAs and minicamp, he’s spent time rotating between right guard and right tackle. The Chiefs traded with the New Orleans Saints for two-time Pro Bowler Ben Grubbs earlier this offseason. They also signed veteran Paul Fanaika and spent their second-round pick on former Missouri Tiger Mitch Morse. It’s likely that Eric Fisher and Grubbs will handle the left side of the offensive line, but the other three spots will be figured out between the start of training camp and the first regular season game in Houston on Sept. 13.

My Betting Prediction

Like that defense but not a huge fan of the offense. I project a 9-7 record so go under the NFL betting total.